Result scored 2026-09-16 · final

Forecast 83% (range 65–100%). Result 85%: 23 of 27 scored lots sold, 4 unsold or withdrawn. Inside the range, 2 pts above the forecast.

Ten lowest-scored lots: 2 of 10 unsold vs 2 of 17 others (the model expected about 2 of the ten unsold).

Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →

83% range 65–100%expected sell-through by lotof the 27 lots with a printed estimate

83%by low-estimate valueof $15M low estimate (USD; sale currency GBP)

22 18–27expected soldof 27 scored lots

0unscoredno printed estimate

2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots

Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.

Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 27 scored lots

Lot	Artist	Work	Estimate	Probability	Result
18	El Anatsui	Zebra Square	£750,000–£1,000,000	72%	sold
27	James Ensor	Fleurs fines, formes légères	£180,000–£250,000	80%	sold
26	Fernand Léger	Le Remorqueur	£150,000–£200,000	80%	sold
21	Julie Mehretu	Auguries	£250,000–£350,000	80%	sold
17	Brice Marden	Three Works: (i) Nevisian Story 17/Garden 1 ; (ii) Nevisian Story 18/Garden 2 ; (iii) Nevisian Story 19/Garden 3	£300,000–£500,000	81%	unsold or withdrawn
12	Georg Baselitz	Die Wildnis im Zimmer	£600,000–£800,000	82%	sold
28	Pierre Alechinsky	Les Polyglottes	£120,000–£180,000	82%	sold
20	Hans Hartung	T1955-38	£250,000–£350,000	82%	unsold or withdrawn
15	Andy Warhol	Mao	£1,400,000–£1,800,000	83%	sold
23	Robert Longo	Untitled (Gothic Tree)	£250,000–£300,000	83%	sold

In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.

By estimate band low estimate in USD

Band	Lots	Expected	Low estimate
$15k–50k	2	84%	$87K
$50k+	25	83%	$15M

Context evening sales at Phillips, trailing year

Over the year before the sale (2025-03-05 to 2026-03-04), Phillips sold 90% of the 140 lots with a recorded outcome in its 5 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.

Every scored lot 27 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most

Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 81%, n=100,756 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · March sales clear 73%, n=432,955 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.

Lot	Artist	Work	Estimate GBP	Probability	Why	Result
1	Joseph Yaeger	Tyranny of the rational	£35,000–£55,000	83%	sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756	sold
3	Derek Fordjour	Six Count	£300,000–£500,000	84%	sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756	sold
4	Tracey Emin	An Insane desire For you	£600,000–£800,000	84%	artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=657	sold
5	Rebecca Warren	Fascia V	£250,000–£350,000	83%	sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756	sold
6	Anna Ancher	Young Girl Reading a Letter (Ung pige, der læser et brev)	£30,000–£50,000	84%	sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756	sold
7	Vilhelm Hammershøi	Interior of Woman Placing Branches in Vase on Table (Interiør med kvinde, der stiller grene i et glas, Strandgade 30)	£1,500,000–£2,000,000	83%	sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756	sold
8	Vilhelm Hammershøi	The Church of St. Peter, Copenhagen (Petri Kirke set fra Larslejstræde, København)	£600,000–£800,000	83%	sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756	unsold or withdrawn
9	Bertha Wegmann	A Young Woman, Marie Triepcke, Sitting in a Boat (En ung pige, Marie Triepcke, siddende i en båd)	£150,000–£200,000	83%	sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756	sold
10	Harald Sohlberg	Autumn at Leangbukten, Oslofjord (Höst ved Leangbukten, Oslofjord)	£850,000–£1,300,000	83%	sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756	sold
11	Anselm Kiefer	Right wing, left wing	£400,000–£600,000	85%	artist clears 81% at panel houses, n=171	sold
12	Georg Baselitz	Die Wildnis im Zimmer	£600,000–£800,000	82%	estimate 246× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
13	Anthony Gormley	Drawn Apart	£300,000–£500,000	87%	artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=256	sold
14	Banksy	Happy Choppers	£1,000,000–£1,500,000	86%	artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,424	sold
15	Andy Warhol	Mao	£1,400,000–£1,800,000	83%	artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=5,598	sold
16	Donald Judd	Untitled	£380,000–£500,000	86%	artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=476	sold
17	Brice Marden	Three Works: (i) Nevisian Story 17/Garden 1 ; (ii) Nevisian Story 18/Garden 2 ; (iii) Nevisian Story 19/Garden 3	£300,000–£500,000	81%	estimate 89× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	unsold or withdrawn
18	El Anatsui	Zebra Square	£750,000–£1,000,000	72%	estimate 34× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
19	Cai Guo-qiang	Black Sunflower	£250,000–£350,000	83%	sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756	sold
20	Hans Hartung	T1955-38	£250,000–£350,000	82%	estimate 381× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	unsold or withdrawn
21	Julie Mehretu	Auguries	£250,000–£350,000	80%	estimate 22× the artist's median hammer	sold
22	Gerhard Richter	Fuji (839-13)	£350,000–£550,000	86%	artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,129	unsold or withdrawn
23	Robert Longo	Untitled (Gothic Tree)	£250,000–£300,000	83%	artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=529	sold
25	Pablo Picasso	Femme Nue et Deux Têtes	£180,000–£250,000	85%	artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=9,299	sold
26	Fernand Léger	Le Remorqueur	£150,000–£200,000	80%	estimate 23× the artist's median hammer	sold
27	James Ensor	Fleurs fines, formes légères	£180,000–£250,000	80%	estimate 106× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
28	Pierre Alechinsky	Les Polyglottes	£120,000–£180,000	82%	estimate 160× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
29	Jan Schoonhoven	R69-23	£120,000–£180,000	88%	artist clears 79% at panel houses, n=63	sold

Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.

Method and citation

What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Phillips, Modern & Contemporary Art Evening Sale, 5 March 2026", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/1026. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.

Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.