Retrospective · Phillips scored
Modern & Contemporary Art Evening Sale
Phillips, New York · 19 May 2026 · sale page ↗. Retrospective — scored after the sale on the results as recorded; lots withdrawn before the sale are not in the record; the model that scored it was trained on data through 2025-09-15, before this sale.
Result scored 2026-09-16 · final
Forecast 83% (range 69–98%). Result 100%: 41 of 41 scored lots sold, 0 unsold or withdrawn. Outside the range, 17 pts above the forecast.
Ten lowest-scored lots: 0 of 10 unsold vs 0 of 31 others (the model expected about 2 of the ten unsold).
Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →
83% range 69–98%expected sell-through by lotof the 41 lots with a printed estimate
84%by low-estimate valueof $84M low estimate
34 28–40expected soldof 41 scored lots
0unscoredno printed estimate
2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots
Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.
Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 41 scored lots
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate | Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11 | Marc Chagall | Les amoureux de Saint-Paul de Vence | $1,500,000–$2,000,000 | 76% | sold |
| 10 | Giorgio Morandi | Natura morta | $1,000,000–$1,500,000 | 78% | sold |
| 28 | Maria Helena Vieira Da Silva | L'issue lumineuse | $400,000–$600,000 | 79% | sold |
| 20 | Glenn Ligon | Double America 2 | $1,500,000–$2,000,000 | 79% | sold |
| 40 | Keith Haring | Untitled (Grace Jones Mask) | $1,500,000–$2,500,000 | 79% | sold |
| 21 | Urs Fischer | Oracle | $300,000–$500,000 | 79% | sold |
| 14 | Agnes Martin | Untitled #1 | $3,500,000–$4,500,000 | 81% | sold |
| 42 | Adolph Gottlieb | Black Sparks | $1,000,000–$1,500,000 | 81% | sold |
| 3 | Lee Bontecou | Untitled | $1,200,000–$1,800,000 | 81% | sold |
| 19 | Barbara Kruger | Untitled (My face is your fortune) | $600,000–$800,000 | 82% | sold |
In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.
By estimate band low estimate in USD
| Band | Lots | Expected | Low estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| $50k+ | 41 | 83% | $84M |
Context evening sales at Phillips, trailing year
Over the year before the sale (2025-05-19 to 2026-05-18), Phillips sold 91% of the 117 lots with a recorded outcome in its 5 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.
Every scored lot 41 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most
Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 81%, n=100,756 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · May sales clear 72%, n=503,659 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate USD | Probability | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Salman Toor | Two Friends | $180,000–$250,000 | 90% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=62 | sold |
| 2 | Cecily Brown | Untitled | $300,000–$500,000 | 85% | artist clears 80% at panel houses, n=188 | sold |
| 3 | Lee Bontecou | Untitled | $1,200,000–$1,800,000 | 81% | estimate 600× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 4 | Claude Monet | La Route de Vétheuil, effet de neige | $7,000,000–$10,000,000 | 90% | artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=157 | sold |
| 5 | Pat Passlof | Fortune | $300,000–$500,000 | 83% | sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756 | sold |
| 6 | Joan Mitchell | Plain | $5,000,000–$7,000,000 | 87% | artist clears 90% at panel houses, n=265 | sold |
| 7 | Paul Signac | Les Diablerets (L'Oldenhorn et le Bécabesson) | $2,000,000–$3,000,000 | 87% | artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=250 | sold |
| 8 | P. S. Krøyer | Self-Portrait, Sitting by His Easel at Skagen Beach (Selvportræt, siddende ved staffeliet på Skagens strand) | $300,000–$500,000 | 83% | sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756 | sold |
| 9 | Vilhelm Hammershøi | Interior with Windsor Chair at Strandgade 25 (Interiør med windsorstol. Strandgade 25) | $2,500,000–$3,500,000 | 83% | sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756 | sold |
| 10 | Giorgio Morandi | Natura morta | $1,000,000–$1,500,000 | 78% | estimate 163× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 11 | Marc Chagall | Les amoureux de Saint-Paul de Vence | $1,500,000–$2,000,000 | 76% | estimate 475× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 12 | Gerhard Richter | Besen | $6,500,000–$8,500,000 | 86% | artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,129 | sold |
| 13 | Mark Bradford | The Less Common Royalness | $2,000,000–$3,000,000 | 82% | estimate 179× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 14 | Agnes Martin | Untitled #1 | $3,500,000–$4,500,000 | 81% | estimate 824× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 15 | Andy Warhol | Sixteen Jackies | $15,000,000–$20,000,000 | 83% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=5,598 | sold |
| 16 | Jean Dubuffet | Liqueurs, musique, chemiserie (avec sept voitures) | $800,000–$1,200,000 | 85% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=824 | sold |
| 17 | Andy Warhol | Self-Portrait | $3,000,000–$5,000,000 | 83% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=5,598 | sold |
| 18 | Wayne Thiebaud | Self-Portrait | $1,500,000–$2,500,000 | 84% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=532 | sold |
| 19 | Barbara Kruger | Untitled (My face is your fortune) | $600,000–$800,000 | 82% | estimate 418× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 20 | Glenn Ligon | Double America 2 | $1,500,000–$2,000,000 | 79% | estimate 78× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 21 | Urs Fischer | Oracle | $300,000–$500,000 | 79% | artist clears 64% at panel houses, n=104 | sold |
| 22 | Andy Warhol | 4 Colored Marilyns (Reversal Series) | $4,000,000–$6,000,000 | 83% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=5,598 | sold |
| 23 | Helen Frankenthaler | Paloverde | $600,000–$800,000 | 88% | artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=448 | sold |
| 24 | Vilhelm Hammershøi | Landscape with a Row of Trees (Landskab med en række træer) | $120,000–$180,000 | 83% | sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756 | sold |
| 25 | Vilhelm Hammershøi | Study of standing woman, seen from behind (Studie af stående kvinde, set bagfra) | $600,000–$900,000 | 83% | sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756 | sold |
| 26 | Alberto Giacometti | Femme debout (Poseuse I) | $3,000,000–$5,000,000 | 85% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=543 | sold |
| 27 | Vilhelm Hammershøi | Courtyard Interior at Strandgade 30 (Gårdinteriør. Strandgade 30) | $3,000,000–$5,000,000 | 83% | sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756 | sold |
| 27A | Olga De Amaral | Umbra E | $600,000–$800,000 | 83% | artist clears 81% at panel houses, n=76 | sold |
| 28 | Maria Helena Vieira Da Silva | L'issue lumineuse | $400,000–$600,000 | 79% | estimate 339× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 29 | Martha Jungwirth | Untitled | $200,000–$300,000 | 83% | sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756 | sold |
| 30 | Jackson Pollock | Untitled | $7,000,000–$10,000,000 | 82% | estimate 340× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 31 | Francis Picabia | Untitled | $200,000–$300,000 | 83% | artist clears 82% at panel houses, n=257 | sold |
| 33 | Jean Dubuffet | Barbe des rites | $2,000,000–$3,000,000 | 85% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=824 | sold |
| 34 | David Hammons | Untitled (Body Print) | $800,000–$1,200,000 | 88% | artist clears 80% at panel houses, n=53 | sold |
| 35 | Georgia O'keeffe | Maple Leaves and Flowering Cactus (double-sided) | $700,000–$1,000,000 | 86% | artist clears 77% at panel houses, n=107 | sold |
| 36 | Nicolas De Staël | Fleurs sur fond rouge | $1,500,000–$2,500,000 | 83% | sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756 | sold |
| 37 | Joseph Yaeger | There is a light and it always goes out | $60,000–$80,000 | 83% | sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756 | sold |
| 38 | Anna Weyant | Dinner | $380,000–$450,000 | 90% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=44 | sold |
| 39 | Henri Matisse | Le Tiaré | $700,000–$1,000,000 | 82% | estimate 155× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 40 | Keith Haring | Untitled (Grace Jones Mask) | $1,500,000–$2,500,000 | 79% | estimate 400× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 42 | Adolph Gottlieb | Black Sparks | $1,000,000–$1,500,000 | 81% | estimate 500× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.
Method and citation
- What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
- The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
- Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
- Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
- Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Phillips, Modern & Contemporary Art Evening Sale, 19 May 2026", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/1047. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.
Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.