86% range 66–100%expected sell-through by lotof the 20 lots with a printed estimate

85%by low-estimate valueof $7.4M low estimate (USD; sale currency HKD)

17 13–20expected soldof 20 scored lots

0unscoredno printed estimate

2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots

Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.

Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 20 scored lots

Lot	Artist	Work	Estimate	Probability
19	Lauren Quin	Spades	HK$650,000–HK$850,000	83%
2	Julie Curtiss	Shopped Hands	HK$480,000–HK$680,000	83%
5	Adam Pendleton	Untitled (WE ARE NOT)	HK$2,000,000–HK$3,000,000	83%
16	Ouyang Chun	Soul and Flesh - Trio	HK$1,500,000–HK$2,500,000	83%
17	Wang Guangle	120330	HK$1,500,000–HK$2,500,000	83%
8	Adrien-jean Le Mayeur De Merprès	Renang and Ni Pollok	HK$1,200,000–HK$2,200,000	84%
14	Zhang Peili	Just For You	HK$800,000–HK$1,500,000	84%
3	Xue Ruozhe	On the other side	HK$200,000–HK$400,000	84%
15	Zhang Peili	Yellow, Blue and Red	HK$1,000,000–HK$2,000,000	84%
13	Zeng Fanzhi	Mask Series No. 4	HK$11,000,000–HK$16,000,000	84%

In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.

By estimate band low estimate in USD

Band	Lots	Expected	Low estimate
$15k–50k	1	84%	$25K
$50k+	19	86%	$7.4M

Context evening sales at Phillips, trailing year

Over the year before this card was issued (2025-09-16 to 2026-09-15), Phillips sold 93% of the 228 lots with a recorded outcome in its 7 evening sales in the reporting panel. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.

Every scored lot 20 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most

Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 81%, n=100,756 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · September sales clear 72%, n=393,154 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.

Lot	Artist	Work	Estimate HKD	Probability	Why
1	Atsushi Kaga	The Uncomplete Encyclopedia of Ideas and Wisdom	HK$600,000–HK$900,000	90%	artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=50
2	Julie Curtiss	Shopped Hands	HK$480,000–HK$680,000	83%	sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756
3	Xue Ruozhe	On the other side	HK$200,000–HK$400,000	84%	sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756
4	Issy Wood	Python! You could've asked! Pedestals!	HK$800,000–HK$1,200,000	89%	artist clears 83% at panel houses, n=57
5	Adam Pendleton	Untitled (WE ARE NOT)	HK$2,000,000–HK$3,000,000	83%	artist clears 72% at panel houses, n=70
6	Ayako Rokkaku	Untitled	HK$2,400,000–HK$4,000,000	86%	artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=224
7	Gerhard Richter	Abstraktes Bild (522-1)	HK$18,000,000–HK$25,000,000	86%	artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,129
8	Adrien-jean Le Mayeur De Merprès	Renang and Ni Pollok	HK$1,200,000–HK$2,200,000	84%	sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756
9	Affandi	Roller Coaster, EXPO '70, Osaka	HK$2,200,000–HK$4,200,000	85%	artist clears 80% at panel houses, n=87
10	Le Pho	Portrait de Jeune Femme	HK$900,000–HK$1,300,000	91%	artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=458
11	Zao Wou-ki	Sans titre (La Théière)	HK$10,000,000–HK$15,000,000	84%	artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=690
12	Natee Utarit	Aesthetic of Condemnation No.4	HK$600,000–HK$900,000	86%	artist clears 77% at panel houses, n=47
13	Zeng Fanzhi	Mask Series No. 4	HK$11,000,000–HK$16,000,000	84%	artist clears 83% at panel houses, n=98
14	Zhang Peili	Just For You	HK$800,000–HK$1,500,000	84%	sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756
15	Zhang Peili	Yellow, Blue and Red	HK$1,000,000–HK$2,000,000	84%	sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756
16	Ouyang Chun	Soul and Flesh - Trio	HK$1,500,000–HK$2,500,000	83%	sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756
17	Wang Guangle	120330	HK$1,500,000–HK$2,500,000	83%	sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756
18	Kim Tschang-yeul	Waterdrops	HK$1,000,000–HK$1,500,000	88%	artist clears 81% at panel houses, n=50
19	Lauren Quin	Spades	HK$650,000–HK$850,000	83%	sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756
20	Hajime Sorayama	Sexy Robot, Life Size Seating Model B	HK$1,500,000–HK$2,500,000	89%	artist clears 82% at panel houses, n=51

Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.

Issue ledger every nightly issue, oldest first

Issued	Lots scored	Expected	Low estimate (USD)
2026-09-16	20	86%	$7.4M

The card is rebuilt every night while the sale is ahead, because the catalog fills for weeks; the forecast of record is the last issue on or before the sale date.

Method and citation

What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Pre-sale forecast: Phillips, Modern & Contemporary Art Evening Sale, 30 September 2026", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/1059. Issued 2026-09-16.

Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.