Result scored 2026-09-16 · final

Forecast 83% (range 63–100%). Result 82%: 18 of 22 scored lots sold, 4 unsold or withdrawn. Inside the range, 1 pts below the forecast.

Ten lowest-scored lots: 2 of 10 unsold vs 2 of 12 others (the model expected about 2 of the ten unsold).

Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →

83% range 63–100%expected sell-through by lotof the 22 lots with a printed estimate

83%by low-estimate valueof $13M low estimate (USD; sale currency GBP)

18 14–22expected soldof 22 scored lots

0unscoredno printed estimate

2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots

Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.

Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 22 scored lots

Lot	Artist	Work	Estimate	Probability	Result
20	Anish Kapoor	Mirror (Organic Green to Dark Purple)	£500,000–£700,000	76%	sold
13	Sigmar Polke	I Can't Stand it Anymore!	£600,000–£800,000	77%	unsold or withdrawn
23	Robert Rauschenberg	Gospel Yodel (Salvage Series)	£350,000–£550,000	79%	sold
24	Glenn Brown	The Revolutionary Corps of Teenage Jesus	£150,000–£250,000	82%	sold
12	Pierre Soulages	Peinture 202 x 143 cm, 14 août 2015	£600,000–£800,000	82%	sold
22	Hernan Bas	Conceptual Artist #6 (by combining different grave rubbings he invents lives that never existed)	£300,000–£500,000	82%	sold
19	Damien Hirst	Calcium Hydroxide	£400,000–£600,000	82%	sold
5	Steven Shearer	Synthist	£150,000–£200,000	83%	sold
15	Andy Warhol	Giorgio Armani	£600,000–£800,000	83%	unsold or withdrawn
2	Emma Mcintyre	Seven types of ambiguity	£50,000–£70,000	83%	sold

In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.

By estimate band low estimate in USD

Band	Lots	Expected	Low estimate
$50k+	22	83%	$13M

Context evening sales at Phillips, trailing year

Over the year before the sale (2024-10-16 to 2025-10-15), Phillips sold 89% of the 137 lots with a recorded outcome in its 5 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.

Every scored lot 22 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most

Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 81%, n=100,756 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · October sales clear 72%, n=457,310 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.

Lot	Artist	Work	Estimate GBP	Probability	Why	Result
1	Martha Jungwirth	Untitled	£80,000–£120,000	83%	sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756	sold
2	Emma Mcintyre	Seven types of ambiguity	£50,000–£70,000	83%	sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756	sold
3	Sasha Gordon	Drive Through	£80,000–£120,000	83%	sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756	sold
4	Derek Fordjour	Regatta Pattern Study	£300,000–£500,000	83%	sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756	sold
5	Steven Shearer	Synthist	£150,000–£200,000	83%	sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756	sold
6	Noah Davis	Mitrice Richardson	£350,000–£550,000	83%	sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756	sold
8	Flora Yukhnovich	My Body knows Un-Heard of Songs	£900,000–£1,500,000	89%	artist clears 83% at panel houses, n=43	sold
9	Banksy	Kate Moss	£700,000–£1,000,000	85%	artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,424	unsold or withdrawn
10	Sean Scully	Wall of Light Summer Night 5.10	£600,000–£800,000	83%	artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=322	sold
11	Bernar Venet	222.5° Arc x 13	£250,000–£350,000	83%	artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=188	sold
12	Pierre Soulages	Peinture 202 x 143 cm, 14 août 2015	£600,000–£800,000	82%	estimate 125× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
13	Sigmar Polke	I Can't Stand it Anymore!	£600,000–£800,000	77%	estimate 15× the artist's median hammer	unsold or withdrawn
14	Jean-Michel Basquiat	Untitled (Pestus)	£2,000,000–£3,000,000	84%	artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=407	sold
15	Andy Warhol	Giorgio Armani	£600,000–£800,000	83%	artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=5,598	unsold or withdrawn
18	Banksy	Pest Control - Banksus Militus Vandalus	£350,000–£450,000	86%	artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,424	sold
19	Damien Hirst	Calcium Hydroxide	£400,000–£600,000	82%	estimate 133× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
20	Anish Kapoor	Mirror (Organic Green to Dark Purple)	£500,000–£700,000	76%	estimate 146× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
21	Vojtěch Kovařík	Laocoon	£80,000–£120,000	83%	sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756	sold
22	Hernan Bas	Conceptual Artist #6 (by combining different grave rubbings he invents lives that never existed)	£300,000–£500,000	82%	estimate 49× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
23	Robert Rauschenberg	Gospel Yodel (Salvage Series)	£350,000–£550,000	79%	estimate 302× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
24	Glenn Brown	The Revolutionary Corps of Teenage Jesus	£150,000–£250,000	82%	artist clears 68% at panel houses, n=58	sold
26	Andreas Gursky	Love Parade	£150,000–£250,000	83%	estimate 4.9× the artist's median hammer	unsold or withdrawn

Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.

Method and citation

What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Phillips, Modern & Contemporary Art Evening Sale, 16 October 2025", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/1089. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.

Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.