Retrospective · Phillips scored
Modern & Contemporary Art Evening Sale featuring Cera the Triceratops
Phillips, New York · 19 November 2025 · sale page ↗. Retrospective — scored after the sale on the results as recorded; lots withdrawn before the sale are not in the record; the model that scored it was trained on data through 2025-09-15, before this sale.
Result scored 2026-09-16 · final
Forecast 83% (range 67–99%). Result 94%: 31 of 33 scored lots sold, 2 unsold or withdrawn. Inside the range, 11 pts above the forecast.
Ten lowest-scored lots: 0 of 10 unsold vs 2 of 23 others (the model expected about 2 of the ten unsold).
Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →
83% range 67–99%expected sell-through by lotof the 33 lots with a printed estimate
84%by low-estimate valueof $48M low estimate
27 22–33expected soldof 33 scored lots
0unscoredno printed estimate
2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots
Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.
Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 33 scored lots
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate | Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | David Smith | Forging V | $600,000–$800,000 | 75% | sold |
| 13 | Max Ernst | Dans les rues d'Athènes | $400,000–$600,000 | 77% | sold |
| 15 | Jeff Koons | Dogpool Ladder | $750,000–$1,000,000 | 77% | sold |
| 8 | Julie Mehretu | Myriads, Only by Dark (Unfolded Body Map, Mathematics of Droves, Indigene, Origin) | $350,000–$550,000 | 80% | sold |
| 24 | John Singer Sargent, Ra | A Backwater at Wargrave | $300,000–$500,000 | 81% | sold |
| 20 | Camille Pissarro | Le pré et la maison d'Éragny, femme jardinant, printemps | $1,200,000–$1,800,000 | 81% | sold |
| 1 | Ruth Asawa | Untitled (S.230, Hanging Single-Lobed, Five-Layered Continuous Form within a Form) | $400,000–$600,000 | 81% | sold |
| 17 | Jackson Pollock | Untitled | $2,800,000–$3,500,000 | 82% | sold |
| 33 | Alex Katz | Sarah | $400,000–$600,000 | 82% | sold |
| 22 | Robert Motherwell | A Sculptor's Picture, with Blue | $750,000–$1,000,000 | 82% | sold |
In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.
By estimate band low estimate in USD
| Band | Lots | Expected | Low estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| $50k+ | 33 | 83% | $48M |
Context evening sales at Phillips, trailing year
Over the year before the sale (2024-11-19 to 2025-11-18), Phillips sold 88% of the 159 lots with a recorded outcome in its 6 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.
Every scored lot 33 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most
Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 81%, n=100,756 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · November sales clear 71%, n=519,833 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate USD | Probability | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ruth Asawa | Untitled (S.230, Hanging Single-Lobed, Five-Layered Continuous Form within a Form) | $400,000–$600,000 | 81% | estimate 24× the artist's median hammer | sold |
| 2 | Olga De Amaral | Alquimia 62 | $300,000–$500,000 | 85% | artist clears 81% at panel houses, n=76 | sold |
| 3 | Firelei Báez | Daughter of Revolutions | $300,000–$500,000 | 83% | sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756 | sold |
| 4 | Alma Thomas | Untitled | $250,000–$350,000 | 82% | sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756 | sold |
| 5 | Kerry James Marshall | Study for Vignette 14 | $300,000–$500,000 | 90% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=76 | sold |
| 6 | — | CERA - Juvenile Triceratops Skeleton The Most Complete Juvenile Triceratops Skeleton Ever Unearthed | $2,500,000–$3,500,000 | 82% | sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756 | sold |
| 7 | Jean-Michel Basquiat | Untitled | $800,000–$1,200,000 | 84% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=407 | sold |
| 8 | Julie Mehretu | Myriads, Only by Dark (Unfolded Body Map, Mathematics of Droves, Indigene, Origin) | $350,000–$550,000 | 80% | estimate 25× the artist's median hammer | sold |
| 9 | Jean-Michel Basquiat | Exercise | $3,000,000–$5,000,000 | 84% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=407 | sold |
| 10 | Francis Bacon | Study for Head of Isabel Rawsthorne and George Dyer | $13,000,000–$18,000,000 | 85% | artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=339 | sold |
| 11 | Olga De Amaral | Título desconocido (Unknown title) | $400,000–$600,000 | 84% | artist clears 81% at panel houses, n=76 | sold |
| 12 | Mark Tansey | Revelever | $2,500,000–$3,500,000 | 86% | artist clears 78% at panel houses, n=40 | sold |
| 13 | Max Ernst | Dans les rues d'Athènes | $400,000–$600,000 | 77% | estimate 263× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 14 | — | The Ouroboros - Steneosaurus bollensis A world-class specimen preserved without restoration | $450,000–$650,000 | 83% | sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756 | sold |
| 15 | Jeff Koons | Dogpool Ladder | $750,000–$1,000,000 | 77% | estimate 159× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 16 | David Smith | Forging V | $600,000–$800,000 | 75% | estimate 25× the artist's median hammer | sold |
| 17 | Jackson Pollock | Untitled | $2,800,000–$3,500,000 | 82% | estimate 126× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 18 | Joan Mitchell | Untitled | $10,000,000–$15,000,000 | 87% | artist clears 90% at panel houses, n=265 | sold |
| 19 | Jadé Fadojutimi | Untitled | $800,000–$1,200,000 | 89% | artist clears 84% at panel houses, n=83 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 20 | Camille Pissarro | Le pré et la maison d'Éragny, femme jardinant, printemps | $1,200,000–$1,800,000 | 81% | estimate 150× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 21 | Martha Jungwirth | Untitled | $200,000–$300,000 | 83% | sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756 | sold |
| 22 | Robert Motherwell | A Sculptor's Picture, with Blue | $750,000–$1,000,000 | 82% | estimate 312× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 23 | Lucy Bull | Light Rain | $350,000–$450,000 | 86% | artist clears 79% at panel houses, n=48 | sold |
| 24 | John Singer Sargent, Ra | A Backwater at Wargrave | $300,000–$500,000 | 81% | estimate 5.0× the artist's median hammer | sold |
| 25 | René Magritte | La folie des grandeurs (Megalomania) | $400,000–$600,000 | 88% | artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=342 | sold |
| 26 | Reggie Burrows Hodges | Swimming in Compton: Look Ma’ | $400,000–$600,000 | 83% | sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756 | sold |
| 27 | Ruth Asawa | Untitled (S.443, Hanging Single-Lobed, Five-Layered Continuous Form within a Form) | $300,000–$500,000 | 82% | estimate 19× the artist's median hammer | sold |
| 28 | — | The Thunderbolt The Longest Gold Nugget Ever Found – Nature’s Masterpiece in Pure Gold | $1,250,000–$1,500,000 | 82% | sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 29 | Ernie Barnes | Singin’ Sistahs | $300,000–$500,000 | 83% | artist clears 82% at panel houses, n=101 | sold |
| 30 | Mark Ryden | Pinkie (#154) | $500,000–$700,000 | 82% | sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756 | sold |
| 31 | Sean Scully | Wall of Light Pale Green | $600,000–$800,000 | 83% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=322 | sold |
| 32 | Fernando Botero | Still Life in front of a Window | $700,000–$900,000 | 84% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=454 | sold |
| 33 | Alex Katz | Sarah | $400,000–$600,000 | 82% | estimate 91× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.
Method and citation
- What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
- The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
- Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
- Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
- Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Phillips, Modern & Contemporary Art Evening Sale featuring Cera the Triceratops, 19 November 2025", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/1129. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.
Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.