Result scored 2026-09-16 · final

Forecast 85% (range 66–100%). Result 100%: 20 of 20 scored lots sold, 0 unsold or withdrawn. Inside the range, 15 pts above the forecast.

Ten lowest-scored lots: 0 of 10 unsold vs 0 of 10 others (the model expected about 2 of the ten unsold).

Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →

85% range 66–100%expected sell-through by lotof the 20 lots with a printed estimate

84%by low-estimate valueof $16M low estimate (USD; sale currency HKD)

17 13–20expected soldof 20 scored lots

0unscoredno printed estimate

2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots

Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.

Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 20 scored lots

Lot	Artist	Work	Estimate	Probability	Result
9	Tom Wesselmann	Smoker #17	HK$13,000,000–HK$20,000,000	79%	sold
26	Javier Calleja	Six Works: (i) Two Faces (#51); (ii) It Wasn’t Me (#40); (iii) Bound (#33); (iv) Untitled; (v) Who Would I Be, If I Could Be; (vi) It Can Only Be Me	HK$1,200,000–HK$2,200,000	83%	sold
6	Lucas Arruda	Untitled (from the series Deserto-Modelo)	HK$2,400,000–HK$3,600,000	83%	sold
19	Hao Liang	Butterfly City	HK$3,800,000–HK$5,800,000	83%	sold
5	Ruth Asawa	Untitled S.013 (Hanging Single-Lobed, Five-Layer Continuous Form within a Form)	HK$2,200,000–HK$4,200,000	83%	sold
18	Georges Mathieu	Air de France	HK$3,000,000–HK$5,000,000	83%	sold
3	Jonathan Gardner	Desert Wind	HK$850,000–HK$1,500,000	84%	sold
16	Zao Wou-ki	27.01.86	HK$30,000,000–HK$40,000,000	84%	sold
8	Andy Warhol	Hearts Pink	HK$1,600,000–HK$2,400,000	84%	sold
1	Firenze Lai	Basic Knot	HK$100,000–HK$200,000	84%	sold

In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.

By estimate band low estimate in USD

Band	Lots	Expected	Low estimate
$5k–15k	1	84%	$13K
$50k+	19	85%	$16M

Context evening sales at Phillips, trailing year

Over the year before the sale (2024-09-27 to 2025-09-26), Phillips sold 85% of the 148 lots with a recorded outcome in its 5 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.

Every scored lot 20 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most

Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 81%, n=100,756 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · September sales clear 72%, n=393,154 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.

Lot	Artist	Work	Estimate HKD	Probability	Why	Result
1	Firenze Lai	Basic Knot	HK$100,000–HK$200,000	84%	sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756	sold
2	Miriam Cahn	flüchtling, 17/18' 12'02	HK$800,000–HK$1,200,000	91%	artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=67	sold
3	Jonathan Gardner	Desert Wind	HK$850,000–HK$1,500,000	84%	sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756	sold
5	Ruth Asawa	Untitled S.013 (Hanging Single-Lobed, Five-Layer Continuous Form within a Form)	HK$2,200,000–HK$4,200,000	83%	estimate 20× the artist's median hammer	sold
6	Lucas Arruda	Untitled (from the series Deserto-Modelo)	HK$2,400,000–HK$3,600,000	83%	sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756	sold
7	Mel Bochner	Blah Blah Blah	HK$650,000–HK$850,000	85%	artist clears 83% at panel houses, n=253	sold
8	Andy Warhol	Hearts Pink	HK$1,600,000–HK$2,400,000	84%	artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=5,598	sold
9	Tom Wesselmann	Smoker #17	HK$13,000,000–HK$20,000,000	79%	estimate 265× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
10	Yayoi Kusama	Infinity-Nets (Sfoouy)	HK$10,000,000–HK$15,000,000	88%	artist clears 90% at panel houses, n=1,350	sold
11	Yoshitomo Nara	Pinky	HK$35,000,000–HK$55,000,000	85%	artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=996	sold
12	Izumi Kato	Untitled	HK$1,000,000–HK$2,000,000	92%	artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=97	sold
15	Pablo Picasso	Femme nue allongée	HK$800,000–HK$1,200,000	86%	artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=9,299	sold
16	Zao Wou-ki	27.01.86	HK$30,000,000–HK$40,000,000	84%	artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=690	sold
18	Georges Mathieu	Air de France	HK$3,000,000–HK$5,000,000	83%	estimate 13× the artist's median hammer	sold
19	Hao Liang	Butterfly City	HK$3,800,000–HK$5,800,000	83%	sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756	sold
21	Zeng Fanzhi	Mask Series 1999 No. 2	HK$10,000,000–HK$15,000,000	85%	artist clears 83% at panel houses, n=98	sold
22	Yoshitomo Nara	Untitled	HK$10,000,000–HK$15,000,000	85%	artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=996	sold
26	Javier Calleja	Six Works: (i) Two Faces (#51); (ii) It Wasn’t Me (#40); (iii) Bound (#33); (iv) Untitled; (v) Who Would I Be, If I Could Be; (vi) It Can Only Be Me	HK$1,200,000–HK$2,200,000	83%	estimate 49× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
27	Jean-michel Othoniel	Black Tornado	HK$1,000,000–HK$2,000,000	84%	sits at the house rate of 81%, n=100,756	sold
28	David Hockney	The Arrival of Spring in Woldgate, East Yorkshire in 2011 (twenty eleven) – 1 January	HK$800,000–HK$1,200,000	89%	artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=2,584	sold

Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.

Method and citation

What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Phillips, Modern & Contemporary Art Evening Sale, 27 September 2025", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/1158. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.

Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.