Result scored 2026-09-16 · final

Forecast 88% (range 76–100%). Result 78%: 35 of 45 scored lots sold, 10 unsold or withdrawn. Inside the range, 10 pts below the forecast.

Ten lowest-scored lots: 1 of 10 unsold vs 9 of 35 others (the model expected about 1 of the ten unsold).

Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →

88% range 76–100%expected sell-through by lotof the 45 lots with a printed estimate

88%by low-estimate valueof $40M low estimate (USD; sale currency GBP)

40 34–45expected soldof 45 scored lots

0unscoredno printed estimate

2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots

Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.

Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 45 scored lots

Lot	Artist	Work	Estimate	Probability	Result
32	Carlo Maratta	Saint Andrew led to the cross of martyrdom	£200,000–£300,000	81%	unsold or withdrawn
39	Sir Edwin Henry Landseer, Ra	Scene in Braemar – Highland Deer	£3,000,000–£4,000,000	82%	sold
36	François Boucher	The Marriage of Cupid and Psyche	£500,000–£700,000	84%	sold
26	Phillips Wouwerman	A panoramic landscape with falconry	£300,000–£400,000	86%	sold
35	Francesco Guardi	Venice, a view of the Piazza San Marco looking east towards the Basilica	£150,000–£250,000	87%	sold
17	Sir Peter Paul Rubens	Christ on the Road to Calvary	£150,000–£250,000	88%	sold
46	Ivan Konstantinovich Aivazovsky	Venice, San Giorgio Maggiore	£500,000–£700,000	88%	sold
1	Swabian School, circa 1512	Portrait of a young woman aged nineteen	£150,000–£200,000	88%	sold
2	Hans Memling	The Virgin Mary Nursing the Christ Child	£3,000,000–£4,000,000	88%	sold
4	Bernard Van Orley	Virgin and Child	£1,500,000–£2,000,000	88%	sold

In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.

By estimate band low estimate in USD

Band	Lots	Expected	Low estimate
$50k+	45	88%	$40M

Context evening sales at Sotheby's, trailing year

Over the year before the sale (2025-07-01 to 2026-06-30), Sotheby's sold 92% of the 701 lots with a recorded outcome in its 19 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.

Every scored lot 45 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most

Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 88%, n=534,208 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · July sales clear 68%, n=385,736 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.

Lot	Artist	Work	Estimate GBP	Probability	Why	Result
1	Swabian School, circa 1512	Portrait of a young woman aged nineteen	£150,000–£200,000	88%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
2	Hans Memling	The Virgin Mary Nursing the Christ Child	£3,000,000–£4,000,000	88%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
3	Master of the Prodigal Son	The Adoration of the Magi	£200,000–£300,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
4	Bernard Van Orley	Virgin and Child	£1,500,000–£2,000,000	88%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
5	Cosimo Rosselli	Christ as the Man of Sorrows	£450,000–£600,000	88%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
6	Alessandro di Mariano Filipepi, called Sandro Botticelli, and Associate	The Virgin and Child with the young Saint John the Baptist	£2,000,000–£3,000,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
7	Filippo Da Verona	The penitent Saint Jerome in a rocky landscape	£300,000–£500,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
8	Sebastiano Luciani, called Sebastiano del Piombo and Assistant	Christ in Agony	£120,000–£180,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	unsold or withdrawn
9	Called Palma Il Vecchio Jacopo Negretti	A shepherd and two women	£600,000–£800,000	88%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
10	Workshop Of Bernhard Strigel	Portrait of a man	£100,000–£150,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
11	Willem Key	Portrait of a lady, aged 22, three-quarter length, wearing a black dress	£100,000–£150,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
12	Gillis Mostaert the Elder	A jaarmarkt: an annual market at the edge of a town	£100,000–£150,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
13	Hans Van Wechelen	Christ on the road to Calvary	£100,000–£150,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	unsold or withdrawn
14	Flemish School, early 17th Century	The Seven Days of Creation	£120,000–£180,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
15	Pieter Brueghel the Younger	Village scene with peasants carousing and dancing around a maypole	£2,500,000–£3,500,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
17	Sir Peter Paul Rubens	Christ on the Road to Calvary	£150,000–£250,000	88%	estimate 9.5× the artist's median hammer	sold
18	William Dobson	Portrait of Montagu Bertie, 2nd Earl of Lindsey (1608–1666)	£150,000–£200,000	88%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	unsold or withdrawn
19	Gerard Ter Borch	Portrait of a lady with a fan, full-length, standing by a table	£100,000–£150,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
20	Pieter Claesz.	Breakfast still life of a baked fish garnished with capers and a sliced orange on pewter plates, shrimp in a Wanli Kraak porcelain dish, a silver salt, a knife, a claret glass, bread, and rolled pepper, on a draped table	£300,000–£400,000	88%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
21	Rembrandt Harmensz Van Rijn	'Let The Little Children Come Unto Me'	£8,000,000–£12,000,000	90%	artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=1,008	sold
22	Michiel Van Musscher	An interior scene with Eva Visscher (1661–1684), the artist’s first wife, with a child in her lap and another child in a cot, most likely Catarina (March 1680 – August 1681) and Johannis (b. February 1682)	£200,000–£300,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
23	Gottfried Von Wedig	Still life with a roemer and a knife atop a cut wheel of cheese, a stoneware Siegburg jug, a bread roll and two crossed herrings on a pewter plate, all upon a wooden tabletop	£100,000–£150,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
24	Paulus Pieterszoon Potter	Landscape with livestock and a milkmaid	£2,000,000–£3,000,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	unsold or withdrawn
25	Salomon Van Ruysdael	An estuary scene with smalschips on a broad reach before a gentle breeze, a windmill and church in the distance	£250,000–£350,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	unsold or withdrawn
26	Phillips Wouwerman	A panoramic landscape with falconry	£300,000–£400,000	86%	artist clears 67% at panel houses, n=50	sold
27	Jacob Isaacksz. van Ruisdael	Farmhouses in a wooded hilly landscape with figures on a path near water	£100,000–£150,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	unsold or withdrawn
28	Willem Kalf	Still life with an orange, peaches, a walnut, a silver bowl, and a peeled lemon in a roemer, all upon a stone tabletop draped with green velvet	£200,000–£300,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	unsold or withdrawn
29	Pieter De Hooch	A mother with an infant and an older child, and a maid carrying a pail, in an interior	£120,000–£180,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
30	Sebastiano Ricci	The Rest on the Flight into Egypt	£80,000–£120,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	unsold or withdrawn
31	Giovanni Battista Foggini	Christ and the Samaritan Woman; Apollo and Daphne	£600,000–£1,000,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
32	Carlo Maratta	Saint Andrew led to the cross of martyrdom	£200,000–£300,000	81%	estimate 67× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	unsold or withdrawn
33	Massimo Stanzione	An Allegory of Geometry	£100,000–£150,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
34	Giovanni Antonio Guardi	The Greek Favourite in the Harem	£200,000–£300,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
35	Francesco Guardi	Venice, a view of the Piazza San Marco looking east towards the Basilica	£150,000–£250,000	87%	estimate 4.4× the artist's median hammer	sold
36	François Boucher	The Marriage of Cupid and Psyche	£500,000–£700,000	84%	estimate 56× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
37	William Hodges, R.A	View of Vaitepiha Bay, Tahiti	£300,000–£500,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
38	William Hodges, R.A	View of Owharre [Fare] Harbour, Huahine	£300,000–£500,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	unsold or withdrawn
39	Sir Edwin Henry Landseer, Ra	Scene in Braemar – Highland Deer	£3,000,000–£4,000,000	82%	estimate 1,103× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
40	Thomas Gainsborough, R.A	Portrait of Mrs Sloper 'Spiritualised'	£40,000–£60,000	91%	artist clears 80% at panel houses, n=48	sold
41	O.w.s. John Glover	Tivoli	£100,000–£150,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
42	Henry Nelson O'Neil, A.R.A	The Standard-Bearer: A Portrait of Rajaram Roy (1817–c. 1850), son of Raja Ram Mohan Roy (1772–1833)	£200,000–£300,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
43	John Constable	View of the West End of East Bergholt Church	£80,000–£100,000	89%	artist clears 81% at panel houses, n=82	sold
45	Friedrich Nerly	Venice, The Riva degli Schiavoni, with the Doge's Palace, the Piazzetta San Marco and Santa Maria della Salute beyond	£200,000–£300,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
46	Ivan Konstantinovich Aivazovsky	Venice, San Giorgio Maggiore	£500,000–£700,000	88%	estimate 8.1× the artist's median hammer	sold
47	Petr Petrovich Vereshchagin	A panoramic view of Saint Petersburg	£200,000–£300,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold

Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.

Method and citation

What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Sotheby's, Old Master & 19th Century Paintings and Sculpture Evening Auction, 1 July 2026", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/12086. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.

Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.