Result scored 2026-09-16 · final

Forecast 88% (range 76–100%). Result 85%: 34 of 40 scored lots sold, 6 unsold or withdrawn. Inside the range, 4 pts below the forecast.

Ten lowest-scored lots: 4 of 10 unsold vs 2 of 30 others (the model expected about 2 of the ten unsold).

Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →

88% range 76–100%expected sell-through by lotof the 40 lots with a printed estimate

91%by low-estimate valueof $102M low estimate (USD; sale currency GBP)

35 30–40expected soldof 40 scored lots

0unscoredno printed estimate

2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots

Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.

Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 40 scored lots

Lot	Artist	Work	Estimate	Probability	Result
143	Ernst Ludwig Kirchner	Zwei Kuhhirten mit Kühen (Two Cowboys with Cows)	£300,000–£400,000	78%	unsold or withdrawn
124	Mikhail Fedorovich Larionov	Head of a Soldier	£800,000–£1,200,000	78%	sold
131	Balthus	Le Vase bleu	£150,000–£250,000	83%	sold
127	Raoul Dufy	Rue pavoisée au Havre	£800,000–£1,200,000	83%	sold
138	Richard Avedon	Marilyn Monroe, Actress, New York City	£400,000–£600,000	83%	unsold or withdrawn
133	Pierre Bonnard	Nu assis, jambe pliée	£350,000–£550,000	83%	sold
123	Sigmar Polke	Roter Fisch	£1,000,000–£1,500,000	85%	sold
119	Hurvin Anderson	Untitled (Beach Scene)	£1,800,000–£2,500,000	85%	unsold or withdrawn
126	Paul Klee	Maske (Mask)	£350,000–£450,000	86%	unsold or withdrawn
111	Giorgio Morandi	Natura morta	£800,000–£1,200,000	86%	sold

In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.

By estimate band low estimate in USD

Band	Lots	Expected	Low estimate
$50k+	40	88%	$102M

Context evening sales at Sotheby's, trailing year

Over the year before the sale (2025-06-24 to 2026-06-23), Sotheby's sold 91% of the 709 lots with a recorded outcome in its 19 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.

Every scored lot 40 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most

Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 88%, n=534,208 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · June sales clear 71%, n=512,119 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.

Lot	Artist	Work	Estimate GBP	Probability	Why	Result
101	Elizabeth Peyton	David Fray (Playing Ravel)	£450,000–£650,000	86%	estimate 165× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
103	Alberto Giacometti	Buste d’homme (New York II)	£1,200,000–£1,800,000	91%	artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=543	sold
104	Lucio Fontana	Concetto spaziale	£600,000–£800,000	91%	artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=649	sold
105	Marlow Moss	White, Yellow and Black	£450,000–£650,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
106	Mark Rothko	Untitled	£4,000,000–£6,000,000	93%	artist clears 82% at panel houses, n=42	sold
107	Claude Monet	Nymphéas	£30,000,000–£40,000,000	92%	artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=157	sold
108	Roy Lichtenstein	Landscape with Grass	£2,000,000–£3,000,000	92%	artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,963	sold
110	Egon Schiele	Tote Stadt IV (Blick über Dächer auf Häuserfassaden des Krumauer Ringplatzes) (Dead City IV (View across Roofs of Ringplatz Facades in Krumau))	£2,500,000–£3,500,000	88%	estimate 304× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
111	Giorgio Morandi	Natura morta	£800,000–£1,200,000	86%	estimate 172× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
112	David Hockney	Two Chairs and a Wooden Spoon, July 1988	£1,200,000–£1,800,000	93%	artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=2,584	sold
113	Leon Kossoff	A Street in Willesden	£300,000–£400,000	87%	estimate 5.1× the artist's median hammer	sold
114	Pablo Picasso	Tête de femme	£3,000,000–£5,000,000	91%	artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=9,299	sold
115	Philip Guston	The Hill	£2,500,000–£3,500,000	88%	estimate 940× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
116	Leonora Carrington	The Return of Boadicea	£600,000–£800,000	89%	artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=98	sold
117	Wassily Kandinsky	Fragment zu Improvisation II (Trauermarsch) (Detail of Improvisation II (Funeral March))	£4,000,000–£6,000,000	89%	estimate 1,097× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
118	Claude Monet	Camille assise sur la plage à Trouville	£7,000,000–£10,000,000	94%	artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=157	unsold or withdrawn
119	Hurvin Anderson	Untitled (Beach Scene)	£1,800,000–£2,500,000	85%	estimate 147× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	unsold or withdrawn
120	Matthew Wong	The Painter	£300,000–£500,000	95%	artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=63	sold
121	Noah Davis	Untitled (Kids in Front Yard)	£300,000–£400,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
122	Anselm Kiefer	Aurora	£400,000–£600,000	91%	artist clears 81% at panel houses, n=171	sold
123	Sigmar Polke	Roter Fisch	£1,000,000–£1,500,000	85%	estimate 27× the artist's median hammer	sold
124	Mikhail Fedorovich Larionov	Head of a Soldier	£800,000–£1,200,000	78%	estimate 271× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
125	Roy Lichtenstein	Despair	£1,000,000–£1,500,000	92%	artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,963	sold
126	Paul Klee	Maske (Mask)	£350,000–£450,000	86%	estimate 28× the artist's median hammer	unsold or withdrawn
127	Raoul Dufy	Rue pavoisée au Havre	£800,000–£1,200,000	83%	estimate 82× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
128	Georg Baselitz	Mädchen kommt - Ralf	£450,000–£650,000	89%	estimate 190× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
129	Rashid Johnson	Two Standing Broken Men	£600,000–£800,000	91%	artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=222	sold
130	Sidney Nolan	Ned Kelly at Glenrowan	£600,000–£800,000	92%	artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=924	sold
131	Balthus	Le Vase bleu	£150,000–£250,000	83%	estimate 15× the artist's median hammer	sold
133	Pierre Bonnard	Nu assis, jambe pliée	£350,000–£550,000	83%	estimate 197× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
134	George Condo	Down in Chinatown	£1,500,000–£2,000,000	89%	artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=740	sold
135	Adriana Varejão	Parede com Incisão à la Fontana 3 (Wall with Incision à la Fontana 3)	£350,000–£450,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
136	Frank Bowling	Collaboration with MS & Damidge	£150,000–£250,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	unsold or withdrawn
137	Banksy	Love Is In The Air (life size)	£3,500,000–£5,500,000	91%	artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,424	sold
138	Richard Avedon	Marilyn Monroe, Actress, New York City	£400,000–£600,000	83%	estimate 132× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	unsold or withdrawn
139	Damien Hirst	Biotin-Maleimide	£400,000–£600,000	89%	estimate 131× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
140	Anthony Gormley	Open Gaze III	£250,000–£350,000	92%	artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=256	sold
141	Andreas Gursky	Tokyo	£250,000–£350,000	88%	estimate 7.2× the artist's median hammer	sold
142	Tamara De Lempicka	Portrait d'une jeune femme triste	£800,000–£1,200,000	88%	estimate 82× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
143	Ernst Ludwig Kirchner	Zwei Kuhhirten mit Kühen (Two Cowboys with Cows)	£300,000–£400,000	78%	estimate 42× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	unsold or withdrawn

Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.

Method and citation

What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Sotheby's, Modern & Contemporary Evening Auction, 24 June 2026", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/12100. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.

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