Retrospective · Sotheby's scored
Modern Evening Auction
Sotheby's · 19 May 2026 · sale page ↗. Retrospective — scored after the sale on the results as recorded; lots withdrawn before the sale are not in the record; the model that scored it was trained on data through 2025-09-15, before this sale.
Result scored 2026-09-16 · final
Forecast 89% (range 77–100%). Result 98%: 39 of 40 scored lots sold, 1 unsold or withdrawn. Inside the range, 8 pts above the forecast.
Ten lowest-scored lots: 0 of 10 unsold vs 1 of 30 others (the model expected about 2 of the ten unsold).
Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →
89% range 77–100%expected sell-through by lotof the 40 lots with a printed estimate
90%by low-estimate valueof $177M low estimate
36 31–40expected soldof 40 scored lots
2unscoredno printed estimate
2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots
Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.
Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 40 scored lots
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate | Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 16 | Charles Sheeler | Windows | $1,200,000–$1,800,000 | 81% | sold |
| 34 | Leonor Fini | Portrait de Alida Valli II | $700,000–$1,000,000 | 82% | sold |
| 42 | Max Beckmann | Frau nackt, Haare kämmend (auf Rot und Rosa) (Nude Woman, Combing Her Hair (in Red and Pink)) | $800,000–$1,200,000 | 82% | sold |
| 21 | Pierre Bonnard | Nature morte au melon | $2,500,000–$3,500,000 | 83% | sold |
| 36 | Óscar Domínguez | Le Printemps (Composition lithochronique) | $1,000,000–$1,500,000 | 84% | sold |
| 10 | Yves Tanguy | Aux Aguets le jour | $800,000–$1,200,000 | 84% | sold |
| 23 | Marc Chagall | La Nappe mauve | $2,500,000–$3,500,000 | 85% | sold |
| 32 | Edgar Degas | Femme à sa toilette | $5,000,000–$7,000,000 | 85% | sold |
| 9 | Paul Klee | Gartenfigur (Garden Figure) | $2,000,000–$3,000,000 | 86% | sold |
| 18 | Fernand Léger | Femme dans un jardin | $2,000,000–$3,000,000 | 87% | sold |
In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.
By estimate band low estimate in USD
| Band | Lots | Expected | Low estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| $50k+ | 40 | 89% | $177M |
Context evening sales at Sotheby's, trailing year
Over the year before the sale (2025-05-19 to 2026-05-18), Sotheby's sold 91% of the 667 lots with a recorded outcome in its 18 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.
Every scored lot 40 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most
Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 88%, n=534,208 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · May sales clear 72%, n=503,659 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate USD | Probability | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Diego Giacometti | Pair of “Carcasse” Chenets | $250,000–$350,000 | 96% | artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=286 | sold |
| 2 | Wassily Kandinsky | Zwei schwarze Streifen (Two Black Stripes) | $2,000,000–$3,000,000 | 89% | estimate 417× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 3 | Mark Rothko | Untitled | $5,000,000–$7,000,000 | 93% | artist clears 82% at panel houses, n=42 | sold |
| 4 | Alberto Giacometti | Buste d’homme (dit New York I) | $2,000,000–$3,000,000 | 91% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=543 | sold |
| 6 | Varvara Stepanova | Two Figures | $1,200,000–$1,800,000 | 90% | sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208 | sold |
| 7 | Alberto Giacometti | La Clairière (Composition avec neuf figures) | $18,000,000–$25,000,000 | 91% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=543 | sold |
| 8 | Pablo Picasso | Buste de femme | $3,000,000–$5,000,000 | 91% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=9,299 | sold |
| 9 | Paul Klee | Gartenfigur (Garden Figure) | $2,000,000–$3,000,000 | 86% | estimate 132× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 10 | Yves Tanguy | Aux Aguets le jour | $800,000–$1,200,000 | 84% | estimate 82× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 12 | Wassily Kandinsky | Rote Tiefe (Red Depth) | $12,000,000–$18,000,000 | 89% | estimate 2,500× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 13 | Dorothea Tanning | Témoins du drame | $1,000,000–$1,500,000 | 88% | estimate 278× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 14 | René Magritte | Femme-bouteille | $800,000–$1,200,000 | 93% | artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=342 | sold |
| 15 | Sophie Taeuber-arp | Personnages | $200,000–$300,000 | 90% | sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208 | sold |
| 16 | Charles Sheeler | Windows | $1,200,000–$1,800,000 | 81% | estimate 60× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 17 | Alexander Calder | La Feuille Jaune | $2,500,000–$3,500,000 | 92% | artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=1,650 | sold |
| 18 | Fernand Léger | Femme dans un jardin | $2,000,000–$3,000,000 | 87% | estimate 250× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 21 | Pierre Bonnard | Nature morte au melon | $2,500,000–$3,500,000 | 83% | estimate 1,000× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 22 | Henri Matisse | La Séance du matin | $20,000,000–$30,000,000 | 89% | estimate 4,545× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 23 | Marc Chagall | La Nappe mauve | $2,500,000–$3,500,000 | 85% | estimate 814× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 24 | Pablo Picasso | Tête de femme sur fond jaune | $7,000,000–$10,000,000 | 91% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=9,299 | sold |
| 25 | Barbara Hepworth | Group II (People Waiting) | $2,000,000–$3,000,000 | 91% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=137 | sold |
| 26 | Auguste Rodin | Penseur, Taille de la Porte dit "Moyen Modèle" | $8,000,000–$12,000,000 | 89% | estimate 364× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | unsold or withdrawn |
| 27 | Georgia O'keeffe | Inside Clam Shell | $6,000,000–$8,000,000 | 91% | artist clears 77% at panel houses, n=107 | sold |
| 28 | Vincent Van Gogh | La Moisson en Provence | $25,000,000–$35,000,000 | 93% | artist clears 81% at panel houses, n=46 | sold |
| 29 | Claude Monet | La Falaise d’Amont | $5,000,000–$7,000,000 | 95% | artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=157 | sold |
| 30 | Pierre-auguste Renoir | Baigneuse assise sur un rocher | $8,000,000–$12,000,000 | 89% | estimate 4,000× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 31 | Henri Matisse | Madeleine II | $2,500,000–$3,500,000 | 89% | estimate 545× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 32 | Edgar Degas | Femme à sa toilette | $5,000,000–$7,000,000 | 85% | estimate 189× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 33 | Georgia O'keeffe | Pink Camellia | $2,000,000–$3,000,000 | 92% | artist clears 77% at panel houses, n=107 | sold |
| 34 | Leonor Fini | Portrait de Alida Valli II | $700,000–$1,000,000 | 82% | estimate 590× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 35 | Leonora Carrington | El retorno de la osa mayor | $1,000,000–$1,500,000 | 90% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=98 | sold |
| 36 | Óscar Domínguez | Le Printemps (Composition lithochronique) | $1,000,000–$1,500,000 | 84% | estimate 51× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 37 | Pablo Picasso | Le Petit déjeuner | $5,000,000–$7,000,000 | 91% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=9,299 | sold |
| 39 | René Magritte | Le Voleur | $2,800,000–$3,500,000 | 93% | artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=342 | sold |
| 40 | Alberto Giacometti | Annette d'après nature | $5,000,000–$7,000,000 | 91% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=543 | sold |
| 41 | Egon Schiele | Frauenbildnis mit Blauem und Grünem Halstuch (Portrait of a Woman with Blue and Green Scarf) | $1,000,000–$1,500,000 | 89% | estimate 96× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 42 | Max Beckmann | Frau nackt, Haare kämmend (auf Rot und Rosa) (Nude Woman, Combing Her Hair (in Red and Pink)) | $800,000–$1,200,000 | 82% | estimate 312× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 43 | Pablo Picasso | Tête de femme | $5,000,000–$7,000,000 | 91% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=9,299 | sold |
| 44 | Joan Miró | Peinture | $4,000,000–$6,000,000 | 90% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=3,200 | sold |
| 45 | Pablo Picasso | Tête de femme | $1,200,000–$1,800,000 | 91% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=9,299 | sold |
Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.
Not in the forecast 2 lots carry no printed estimate
2 lots carry no printed estimate (estimate on request) and are not in the forecast. That is common at the top of an evening sale, so the value figure above understates the catalog.
| Lot | Artist | Work |
|---|---|---|
| 11 | Pablo Picasso | Arlequin (Buste) |
| 19 | Henri Matisse | La Chaise lorraine |
Method and citation
- What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
- The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
- Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
- Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
- Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Sotheby's, Modern Evening Auction, 19 May 2026", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/12152. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.
Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.