Retrospective · Sotheby's scored
The Now & Contemporary Evening Auction
Sotheby's · 14 May 2026 · sale page ↗. Retrospective — scored after the sale on the results as recorded; lots withdrawn before the sale are not in the record; the model that scored it was trained on data through 2025-09-15, before this sale.
Result scored 2026-09-16 · final
Forecast 90% (range 79–100%). Result 91%: 39 of 43 scored lots sold, 4 unsold or withdrawn. Inside the range, 0 pts above the forecast.
Ten lowest-scored lots: 1 of 10 unsold vs 3 of 33 others (the model expected about 1 of the ten unsold).
Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →
90% range 79–100%expected sell-through by lotof the 43 lots with a printed estimate
90%by low-estimate valueof $156M low estimate
39 34–43expected soldof 43 scored lots
1unscoredno printed estimate
2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots
Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.
Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 43 scored lots
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate | Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 104 | Elizabeth Peyton | Earl's Court (Liam + Noel) | $1,500,000–$2,000,000 | 86% | sold |
| 133 | Elizabeth Peyton | Max | $800,000–$1,200,000 | 87% | sold |
| 137 | Marlene Dumas | The Annunciation | $1,800,000–$2,500,000 | 87% | sold |
| 113 | Keith Haring | Self-Portrait | $3,000,000–$5,000,000 | 87% | sold |
| 124 | Brice Marden | Blue Painting | $4,000,000–$6,000,000 | 88% | unsold or withdrawn |
| 118 | Agnes Martin | Untitled #6 | $3,000,000–$4,000,000 | 88% | sold |
| 128 | Agnes Martin | Untitled #3 | $1,500,000–$2,000,000 | 88% | sold |
| 109 | Agnes Martin | Untitled #10 | $7,000,000–$10,000,000 | 88% | sold |
| 129 | John Chamberlain | Jo-So | $800,000–$1,200,000 | 88% | sold |
| 110 | Kenneth Noland | Circle | $4,000,000–$6,000,000 | 89% | sold |
In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.
By estimate band low estimate in USD
| Band | Lots | Expected | Low estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| $50k+ | 43 | 90% | $156M |
Context evening sales at Sotheby's, trailing year
Over the year before the sale (2025-05-14 to 2026-05-13), Sotheby's sold 91% of the 653 lots with a recorded outcome in its 17 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.
Every scored lot 43 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most
Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 88%, n=534,208 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · May sales clear 72%, n=503,659 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate USD | Probability | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 101 | Ding Shilun | Three Princes | $50,000–$70,000 | 90% | sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208 | sold |
| 102 | Yu Nishimura | Leaves carpet | $120,000–$180,000 | 90% | sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208 | sold |
| 103 | Joseph Yaeger | The Euphemism | $80,000–$120,000 | 90% | sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208 | sold |
| 104 | Elizabeth Peyton | Earl's Court (Liam + Noel) | $1,500,000–$2,000,000 | 86% | estimate 398× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 105 | Ed Ruscha | Me | $4,000,000–$6,000,000 | 89% | estimate 833× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 106 | Alma Thomas | Pinks of Cherry Blossoms | $2,500,000–$3,500,000 | 90% | sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208 | sold |
| 107 | Helen Frankenthaler | Cape Orange | $3,500,000–$5,000,000 | 93% | artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=448 | sold |
| 108 | Morris Louis | Ambi IV | $4,000,000–$6,000,000 | 90% | sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208 | sold |
| 109 | Agnes Martin | Untitled #10 | $7,000,000–$10,000,000 | 88% | estimate 1,750× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 110 | Kenneth Noland | Circle | $4,000,000–$6,000,000 | 89% | estimate 625× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 111 | Andy Warhol | Brigitte Bardot | $14,000,000–$18,000,000 | 89% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=5,598 | sold |
| 113 | Keith Haring | Self-Portrait | $3,000,000–$5,000,000 | 87% | estimate 800× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 114 | Kerry James Marshall | Woman with a Heart of Gold | $1,500,000–$2,000,000 | 92% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=76 | sold |
| 115 | Roy Lichtenstein | Half Face with Collar | $10,000,000–$15,000,000 | 92% | artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,963 | sold |
| 116 | Alexander Calder | Mobile Blanc | $5,000,000–$7,000,000 | 92% | artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=1,650 | sold |
| 117 | Lucio Fontana | Concetto spaziale, Il cielo di Venezia | $10,000,000–$15,000,000 | 91% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=649 | sold |
| 118 | Agnes Martin | Untitled #6 | $3,000,000–$4,000,000 | 88% | estimate 721× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 119 | Mark Rothko | Untitled | $10,000,000–$15,000,000 | 93% | artist clears 82% at panel houses, n=42 | sold |
| 120 | Robert Ryman | Versions III | $2,500,000–$3,500,000 | 92% | artist clears 78% at panel houses, n=102 | sold |
| 121 | Willem De Kooning | Untitled III | $25,000,000–$35,000,000 | 89% | estimate 4,615× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 122 | Joan Mitchell | Loom II | $5,000,000–$7,000,000 | 93% | artist clears 90% at panel houses, n=265 | sold |
| 123 | Helen Frankenthaler | Arriving in Africa | $3,200,000–$4,000,000 | 93% | artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=448 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 124 | Brice Marden | Blue Painting | $4,000,000–$6,000,000 | 88% | estimate 833× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | unsold or withdrawn |
| 125 | David Hockney | The Valley, Mountains in Var (Near La Garde Freinet) | $6,000,000–$8,000,000 | 93% | artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=2,584 | sold |
| 126 | Morris Louis | Beth Kaf | $1,000,000–$1,500,000 | 90% | sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208 | sold |
| 127 | Isamu Noguchi | Shodo Flowing | $600,000–$800,000 | 89% | estimate 467× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 128 | Agnes Martin | Untitled #3 | $1,500,000–$2,000,000 | 88% | estimate 360× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 129 | John Chamberlain | Jo-So | $800,000–$1,200,000 | 88% | estimate 50× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 130 | Roy Lichtenstein | Sitting Pretty | $4,000,000–$6,000,000 | 92% | artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,963 | sold |
| 131 | Andy Warhol | The American Indian (Russell Means) | $1,500,000–$2,000,000 | 90% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=5,598 | sold |
| 132 | Matthew Wong | Winter's End | $1,200,000–$1,800,000 | 95% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=63 | sold |
| 133 | Elizabeth Peyton | Max | $800,000–$1,200,000 | 87% | estimate 227× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 134 | Wade Guyton | Untitled | $1,200,000–$1,800,000 | 92% | artist clears 77% at panel houses, n=136 | sold |
| 135 | Roni Horn | Opposite of White, v. 2 | $900,000–$1,200,000 | 92% | artist clears 79% at panel houses, n=112 | sold |
| 136 | Florian Krewer | night hunters | $120,000–$180,000 | 90% | sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208 | sold |
| 137 | Marlene Dumas | The Annunciation | $1,800,000–$2,500,000 | 87% | estimate 429× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 138 | George Condo | Figure on a Red Field | $2,000,000–$3,000,000 | 90% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=740 | sold |
| 140 | Andy Warhol | Guns | $2,000,000–$3,000,000 | 90% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=5,598 | sold |
| 141 | Andy Warhol | Self-Portrait | $2,000,000–$3,000,000 | 90% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=5,598 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 143 | Mark Tansey | Continental Divide | $3,000,000–$4,000,000 | 92% | artist clears 78% at panel houses, n=40 | sold |
| 144 | Ellsworth Kelly | Yellow Black | $1,500,000–$2,000,000 | 91% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=735 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 145 | Sarah Sze | The Day Away | $300,000–$500,000 | 90% | sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208 | sold |
| 146 | David Hockney | 18th-27th June 2021, La Dorette Winding its Way | $500,000–$700,000 | 93% | artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=2,584 | sold |
Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.
Not in the forecast 1 lot carry no printed estimate
1 lot carries no printed estimate (estimate on request) and is not in the forecast. That is common at the top of an evening sale, so the value figure above understates the catalog.
| Lot | Artist | Work |
|---|---|---|
| 112 | Jean-Michel Basquiat | Museum Security (Broadway Meltdown) |
Method and citation
- What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
- The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
- Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
- Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
- Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Sotheby's, The Now & Contemporary Evening Auction, 14 May 2026", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/12159. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.
Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.