Retrospective · Sotheby's scored
Art Moderne et Contemporain Evening Auction
Sotheby's · 16 April 2026 · sale page ↗. Retrospective — scored after the sale on the results as recorded; lots withdrawn before the sale are not in the record; the model that scored it was trained on data through 2025-09-15, before this sale.
Result scored 2026-09-16 · final
Forecast 89% (range 76–100%). Result 91%: 32 of 35 scored lots sold, 3 unsold or withdrawn. Inside the range, 2 pts above the forecast.
Ten lowest-scored lots: 2 of 10 unsold vs 1 of 25 others (the model expected about 2 of the ten unsold).
Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →
89% range 76–100%expected sell-through by lotof the 35 lots with a printed estimate
91%by low-estimate valueof $26M low estimate (USD; sale currency EUR)
31 27–35expected soldof 35 scored lots
0unscoredno printed estimate
2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots
Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.
Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 35 scored lots
In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.
By estimate band low estimate in USD
| Band | Lots | Expected | Low estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| $50k+ | 35 | 89% | $26M |
Context evening sales at Sotheby's, trailing year
Over the year before the sale (2025-04-16 to 2026-04-15), Sotheby's sold 90% of the 677 lots with a recorded outcome in its 17 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.
Every scored lot 35 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most
Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 88%, n=534,208 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · April sales clear 73%, n=417,345 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate EUR | Probability | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Francis Picabia | Sans titre | €120,000–€180,000 | 91% | artist clears 82% at panel houses, n=257 | sold |
| 2 | Francis Picabia | Sans titre | €120,000–€180,000 | 91% | artist clears 82% at panel houses, n=257 | sold |
| 3 | Josef Albers | Study to Homage to the Square: "Allegro" | €300,000–€500,000 | 93% | artist clears 90% at panel houses, n=709 | sold |
| 4 | Claude Monet | Vétheuil, effet du matin | €6,000,000–€8,000,000 | 95% | artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=157 | sold |
| 5 | Tamara De Lempicka | Deux Nus en perspective | €900,000–€1,200,000 | 88% | estimate 77× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | unsold or withdrawn |
| 6 | Wassily Kandinsky | Ohne Titel (Sans titre) | €250,000–€350,000 | 89% | estimate 59× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 7 | Josef Albers | Study for Homage to the Square: "Late Sound" | €350,000–€500,000 | 93% | artist clears 90% at panel houses, n=709 | sold |
| 8 | Claude Monet | Les Îles de Port-Villez | €3,000,000–€5,000,000 | 95% | artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=157 | sold |
| 9 | Jean-Michel Basquiat | Law Offices – Notary Public | €1,000,000–€1,500,000 | 91% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=407 | sold |
| 10 | Lucio Fontana | Concetto Spaziale | €50,000–€70,000 | 94% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=649 | sold |
| 11 | Carla Accardi | Labirinto negativo | €100,000–€150,000 | 84% | estimate 474× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 12 | Lucio Fontana | Concetto Spaziale, Attese | €1,300,000–€1,800,000 | 91% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=649 | sold |
| 13 | Lucio Fontana | Concetto spaziale | €300,000–€500,000 | 93% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=649 | sold |
| 14 | Marino Marini | Cavallo | €50,000–€70,000 | 80% | estimate 71× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | unsold or withdrawn |
| 15 | Pablo Picasso | Nature morte | €180,000–€250,000 | 91% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=9,299 | sold |
| 16 | Kees Van Dongen | Renée de Cercy ou Déjà | €600,000–€800,000 | 83% | estimate 43× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | unsold or withdrawn |
| 17 | Pablo Picasso | Femme debout | €150,000–€200,000 | 91% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=9,299 | sold |
| 18 | Kazuo Shiraga | Konkai | €1,100,000–€1,500,000 | 91% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=115 | sold |
| 19 | Rembrandt Bugatti | Tigre royal | €1,200,000–€1,500,000 | 88% | estimate 7.2× the artist's median hammer | sold |
| 20 | Marc Chagall | Gouache préparatoire pour la lithographie originale M. 491 (Cirque, Paris, Teriade Editeur 1967) | €400,000–€600,000 | 86% | estimate 160× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 21 | Marc Chagall | Gouache préparatoire pour la lithographie originale M. 512 (Cirque, Paris, Teriade Editeur 1967) | €600,000–€800,000 | 86% | estimate 224× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 22 | Marc Chagall | Gouache préparatoire pour la lithographie originale M. 526 (Cirque, Paris, Teriade Editeur 1967) | €180,000–€250,000 | 86% | estimate 69× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 23 | Marc Chagall | Gouache préparatoire pour la lithographie originale M. 504 (Cirque, Paris, Teriade Editeur 1967) | €500,000–€700,000 | 86% | estimate 192× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 24 | Marc Chagall | Gouache préparatoire pour la lithographie originale M. 500 (Cirque, Paris, Teriade Editeur 1967) | €600,000–€800,000 | 86% | estimate 224× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 25 | Marc Chagall | Gouache préparatoire pour la lithographie originale M. 496 (Cirque, Paris, Teriade Editeur 1967) | €250,000–€350,000 | 86% | estimate 96× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 26 | Marc Chagall | Gouache préparatoire pour la lithographie originale M. 522 (Cirque, Paris, Teriade Editeur 1967) | €300,000–€500,000 | 86% | estimate 128× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 27 | Simon Hantaï | Tabula | €300,000–€500,000 | 92% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=56 | sold |
| 28 | Gerhard Richter | Sans titre (9. Nov. 1995) | €80,000–€120,000 | 94% | artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,129 | sold |
| 29 | Pierre Soulages | Peinture 234 x 181 cm, 16 octobre 2007 | €600,000–€800,000 | 90% | estimate 110× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 30 | Chu Teh-chun | Le son des cuivres II | €300,000–€500,000 | 88% | estimate 91× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 31 | Max Ernst | Comète | €250,000–€350,000 | 86% | estimate 186× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 32 | Jacques Majorelle | Dans les bananiers, Marrakech | €100,000–€150,000 | 90% | sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208 | sold |
| 33 | Raoul Dufy | Le Bal du Moulin de la Galette | €400,000–€600,000 | 84% | estimate 37× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 34 | Georges Braque | Le Tapis rouge | €250,000–€350,000 | 85% | estimate 221× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 35 | Juan Gris | Verre et Bouteille | €120,000–€180,000 | 90% | estimate 3.8× the artist's median hammer | sold |
Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.
Method and citation
- What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
- The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
- Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
- Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
- Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Sotheby's, Art Moderne et Contemporain Evening Auction, 16 April 2026", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/12194. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.
Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.