Result scored 2026-09-17 · final

Forecast 92% (range 81–100%). Result 100%: 35 of 35 scored lots sold, 0 unsold or withdrawn, 4 with no result recorded yet. Inside the range, 8 pts above the forecast.

Ten lowest-scored lots: 0 of 9 unsold vs 0 of 26 others (the model expected about 1 of the ten unsold).

Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →

92% range 81–100%expected sell-through by lotof the 39 lots with a printed estimate

90%by low-estimate valueof $34M low estimate (USD; sale currency GBP)

36 31–39expected soldof 39 scored lots

0unscoredno printed estimate

2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots

Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.

Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 39 scored lots

Lot	Artist	Work	Estimate	Probability	Result
10	SIR THOMAS LAWRENCE, P.R.A. (BRISTOL 1769-1830 LONDON)	Portrait of Arthur Wellesley, 1st Duke of Wellington, K.G., K.B., M.P. (1769-1852), bust-length, in civilian dress with a military cloak, wearing the insignia of the Order of the Golden Fleece	£8,000,000–£12,000,000	86%	sold
11	SIR THOMAS LAWRENCE, P.R.A. (BRISTOL 1769-1830 LONDON)	Portrait of Marianne Patterson, later Marchioness of Wellesley (1788-1853), half-length, in a feigned oval	£100,000–£150,000	86%	sold
5	DUTCH SCHOOL, 17TH CENTURY	Two skulls with a quill and paper on a marble ledge	£80,000–£120,000	89%	sold
15	Sir Peter Paul Rubens	Aeneas helping Dido from her horse - a sketch	£2,000,000–£3,000,000	89%	sold
1	SWABIAN SCHOOL, 1552	The Holy Kinship with a donor portrait of a Dominican nun of the noble Swabian family von Kaltenthal	£60,000–£80,000	92%	sold
2	MASTER OF THE OBERSTENFELD ALTARPIECE (ACTIVE C. 1512-16 SOUTHERN GERMANY)	The Resurrection of Christ	£150,000–£200,000	92%	no result yet
7	Jan Van Huysum	Peaches and grapes in a wicker basket, with fruit and flowers arranged on a marble ledge, including plums, raspberries, redcurrants, melon, hazelnuts, poppy, morning glory, forget-me-not, cockscomb and jasmine, a stone column and terracotta urn beyond, decorated with putti, holding an opium poppy, with butterflies and insects	£3,000,000–£4,000,000	92%	sold
24	Frans Francken II	The Triumph of Neptune and Amphitrite	£150,000–£200,000	92%	sold
27	Antonio Joli	Rome, a view of the Colosseum and the Arch of Constantine	£150,000–£200,000	92%	sold
28	Antonio Joli	Rome, a view of the Tiber looking towards the Ponte and Castel Sant'Angelo, with Saint Peter's Basilica beyond	£150,000–£200,000	92%	sold

In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.

By estimate band low estimate in USD

Band	Lots	Expected	Low estimate
$50k+	39	92%	$34M

Context evening sales at Christie's, trailing year

Over the year before the sale (2025-06-30 to 2026-06-29), Christie's sold 93% of the 645 lots with a recorded outcome in its 17 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.

Every scored lot 39 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most

Unlock the per-lot scores The sale forecast, the ten lowest-scored lots and the model's validation are open. The per-lot table — every lot's probability and the factor that moved it — comes with a pass or a subscription.

Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.

Method and citation

What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,067 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Christie's, Old Masters Evening Sale, 30 June 2026", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/13893. Issued 2026-09-17, scored 2026-09-17.

Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.