Retrospective · Christie's scored
Marian's Richters & 21st Century Evening Sale
Christie's, New York · 20 May 2026 · sale page ↗. Retrospective — scored after the sale on the results as recorded; lots withdrawn before the sale are not in the record; the model that scored it was trained on data through 2025-09-15, before this sale.
Result scored 2026-09-16 · final
Forecast 91% (range 78–100%). Result 97%: 29 of 30 scored lots sold, 1 unsold or withdrawn. Inside the range, 6 pts above the forecast.
Ten lowest-scored lots: 0 of 10 unsold vs 1 of 20 others (the model expected about 1 of the ten unsold).
Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →
91% range 78–100%expected sell-through by lotof the 30 lots with a printed estimate
92%by low-estimate valueof $108M low estimate
27 24–30expected soldof 30 scored lots
0unscoredno printed estimate
2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots
Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.
Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 30 scored lots
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate | Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36 B | Mike Kelley | Memory Ware Flat #41 | $700,000–$1,000,000 | 87% | sold |
| 38 B | Richard Prince | Back to the Garden | $500,000–$700,000 | 87% | sold |
| 40 B | Eric Fischl | The Pizza Eater | $600,000–$800,000 | 87% | sold |
| 26 B | Richard Prince | Sexual Behavior of American Nurses | $4,000,000–$6,000,000 | 87% | sold |
| 39 B | Jeff Koons | Gazing Ball (Esquiline Venus) | $600,000–$800,000 | 89% | sold |
| 23 B | Elizabeth Peyton | Jarvis after Jail | $1,200,000–$1,800,000 | 89% | sold |
| 44 B | Jeff Koons | Silver Shoes | $400,000–$600,000 | 89% | sold |
| 24 B | Keith Haring | Untitled (June 1st a Milano) | $4,000,000–$6,000,000 | 89% | sold |
| 31 B | John Baldessari | Three Active Persons (With Standing Person) | $400,000–$600,000 | 89% | sold |
| 29 B | Cecily Brown | Bedlam Vacation | $5,000,000–$7,000,000 | 89% | sold |
In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.
By estimate band low estimate in USD
| Band | Lots | Expected | Low estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| $15k–50k | 1 | 96% | $30K |
| $50k+ | 29 | 91% | $108M |
Context evening sales at Christie's, trailing year
Over the year before the sale (2025-05-20 to 2026-05-19), Christie's sold 93% of the 615 lots with a recorded outcome in its 16 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.
Every scored lot 30 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most
Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 90%, n=61,982 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · May sales clear 72%, n=503,659 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate USD | Probability | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 B | Gerhard Richter | 10. Dez. 99 [Firenze] | $50,000–$70,000 | 95% | artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,129 | sold |
| 14 B | Gerhard Richter | Abstraktes Bild | $3,000,000–$5,000,000 | 93% | artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,129 | sold |
| 15 B | Gerhard Richter | Mohn (Poppy) | $14,000,000–$18,000,000 | 93% | artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,129 | sold |
| 16 B | Gerhard Richter | Kerze (Candle) | $35,000,000–$50,000,000 | 93% | artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,129 | sold |
| 17 B | Gerhard Richter | Abstraktes Bild | $3,500,000–$5,500,000 | 93% | artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,129 | sold |
| 18 B | Gerhard Richter | Abstraktes Bild | $4,000,000–$6,000,000 | 93% | artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,129 | sold |
| 19 B | Gerhard Richter | Abstraktes Bild | $1,800,000–$2,500,000 | 93% | artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,129 | sold |
| 20 B | Gerhard Richter | 18. Juni 2009 | $30,000–$50,000 | 96% | artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,129 | sold |
| 21 B | Noah Davis | Blue House | $900,000–$1,200,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 22 B | Jean-Michel Basquiat | Asbestos | $3,000,000–$5,000,000 | 92% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=407 | sold |
| 23 B | Elizabeth Peyton | Jarvis after Jail | $1,200,000–$1,800,000 | 89% | estimate 341× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 24 B | Keith Haring | Untitled (June 1st a Milano) | $4,000,000–$6,000,000 | 89% | estimate 1,000× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 25 B | Christopher Wood | Untitled | $2,000,000–$3,000,000 | 90% | estimate 490× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 26 B | Richard Prince | Sexual Behavior of American Nurses | $4,000,000–$6,000,000 | 87% | estimate 1,622× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 27 B | Andy Warhol | The Last Supper | $3,500,000–$5,500,000 | 92% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=5,598 | sold |
| 28 B | Peter Doig | Target | $6,000,000–$10,000,000 | 91% | estimate 2,903× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 29 B | Cecily Brown | Bedlam Vacation | $5,000,000–$7,000,000 | 89% | estimate 57× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 31 B | John Baldessari | Three Active Persons (With Standing Person) | $400,000–$600,000 | 89% | estimate 132× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 32 B | Ed Ruscha | Career Sportswear | $3,500,000–$5,500,000 | 91% | estimate 750× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | unsold or withdrawn |
| 33 B | Diego Giacometti | 'Hommage à Böcklin' Console, designed circa 1978 | $3,000,000–$5,000,000 | 95% | artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=286 | sold |
| 34 B | SOMAYA CRITCHLOW (B. 1993) | Count Me Out | $60,000–$80,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 35 B | Rudolf Stingel | Untitled | $3,000,000–$5,000,000 | 92% | artist clears 81% at panel houses, n=148 | sold |
| 36 B | Mike Kelley | Memory Ware Flat #41 | $700,000–$1,000,000 | 87% | estimate 9.9× the artist's median hammer | sold |
| 37 B | Barkley L. Hendricks | Jules | $3,000,000–$5,000,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 38 B | Richard Prince | Back to the Garden | $500,000–$700,000 | 87% | estimate 195× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 39 B | Jeff Koons | Gazing Ball (Esquiline Venus) | $600,000–$800,000 | 89% | estimate 127× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 40 B | Eric Fischl | The Pizza Eater | $600,000–$800,000 | 87% | estimate 389× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 41 B | Firelei Báez | For Marie-Claire Heureuse Félicité Bonheur (a reconstituted echo, to be spoken, complete) | $250,000–$350,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 43 B | Mark Bradford | Blind Necks Voting | $1,500,000–$2,000,000 | 91% | estimate 125× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 44 B | Jeff Koons | Silver Shoes | $400,000–$600,000 | 89% | estimate 91× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.
Method and citation
- What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
- The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
- Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
- Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
- Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Christie's, Marian's Richters & 21st Century Evening Sale, 20 May 2026", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/13953. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.
Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.