Retrospective · Christie's scored
20th Century Evening Sale
Christie's, New York · 18 May 2026 · sale page ↗. Retrospective — scored after the sale on the results as recorded; lots withdrawn before the sale are not in the record; the model that scored it was trained on data through 2025-09-15, before this sale.
Result scored 2026-09-16 · final
Forecast 91% (range 81–100%). Result 96%: 45 of 47 scored lots sold, 2 unsold or withdrawn. Inside the range, 5 pts above the forecast.
Ten lowest-scored lots: 0 of 10 unsold vs 2 of 37 others (the model expected about 1 of the ten unsold).
Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →
91% range 81–100%expected sell-through by lotof the 47 lots with a printed estimate
92%by low-estimate valueof $282M low estimate
43 38–47expected soldof 47 scored lots
1unscoredno printed estimate
2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots
Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.
Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 47 scored lots
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate | Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 52 A | Childe Hassam | Across the Avenue in Sunlight, June 1918 | $6,000,000–$8,000,000 | 85% | sold |
| 56 A | Pierre Bonnard | Nu aux babouches rouges | $800,000–$1,200,000 | 86% | sold |
| 40 A | Lee Krasner | Lotus | $1,800,000–$2,500,000 | 87% | sold |
| 28 A | Edgar Degas | Quatre danseuses | $5,000,000–$7,000,000 | 88% | sold |
| 26 A | Edouard Manet | Pivoines dans une bouteille | $7,000,000–$10,000,000 | 88% | sold |
| 58 A | Marc Chagall | La princesse rouge au cirque | $2,000,000–$3,000,000 | 88% | sold |
| 44 A | Salvador Dalí | Chair de poule rhinocérontique | $5,000,000–$8,000,000 | 88% | sold |
| 53 A | Edgar Degas | Enfants et poneys dans un parc | $1,500,000–$2,500,000 | 88% | sold |
| 65 A | Henry Moore | Double Standing Figure | $2,000,000–$4,000,000 | 89% | sold |
| 19 A | Joseph Cornell | Untitled (Medici Princess) | $3,000,000–$5,000,000 | 90% | sold |
In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.
By estimate band low estimate in USD
| Band | Lots | Expected | Low estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| $50k+ | 47 | 91% | $282M |
Context evening sales at Christie's, trailing year
Over the year before the sale (2025-05-18 to 2026-05-17), Christie's sold 92% of the 567 lots with a recorded outcome in its 15 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.
Every scored lot 47 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most
Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 90%, n=61,982 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · May sales clear 72%, n=503,659 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate USD | Probability | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 17 A | Pablo Picasso | Portrait de Jacqueline | $1,200,000–$1,800,000 | 92% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=9,299 | sold |
| 18 A | Pablo Picasso | L'Atelier | $3,000,000–$5,000,000 | 93% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=9,299 | sold |
| 19 A | Joseph Cornell | Untitled (Medici Princess) | $3,000,000–$5,000,000 | 90% | estimate 200× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 20 A | Cy Twombly | Untitled | $40,000,000–$60,000,000 | 94% | artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=303 | sold |
| 22 A | Claude Monet | Pommiers, Vétheuil | $6,000,000–$8,000,000 | 95% | artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=157 | sold |
| 23 A | Pierre-auguste Renoir | La femme aux lilas (Portrait de Nini Lopez) | $25,000,000–$35,000,000 | 91% | estimate 12,000× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 24 A | Roy Lichtenstein | Anxious Girl | $40,000,000–$60,000,000 | 93% | artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,963 | sold |
| 25 A | Georgia O'keeffe | From the Old Garden No. I | $7,000,000–$10,000,000 | 93% | artist clears 77% at panel houses, n=107 | sold |
| 26 A | Edouard Manet | Pivoines dans une bouteille | $7,000,000–$10,000,000 | 88% | estimate 7,083× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 27 A | Henri Matisse | Nu couché II | $1,500,000–$2,500,000 | 91% | estimate 364× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 28 A | Edgar Degas | Quatre danseuses | $5,000,000–$7,000,000 | 88% | estimate 189× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 29 A | Willem De Kooning | Untitled I | $9,000,000–$12,000,000 | 91% | estimate 1,615× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 30 A | Robert Ryman | Register | $9,000,000–$12,000,000 | 93% | artist clears 78% at panel houses, n=102 | sold |
| 31 A | Andy Warhol | Double Elvis [Ferus Type] | $25,000,000–$35,000,000 | 91% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=5,598 | sold |
| 32 A | Agnes Martin | The Desert | $6,500,000–$8,500,000 | 90% | estimate 1,544× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 33 A | Joan Mitchell | Cherchez l’aiguille | $10,000,000–$15,000,000 | 94% | artist clears 90% at panel houses, n=265 | sold |
| 34 A | Joan Miró | Portrait de Ramon Sunyer (L'Orfèvre) | $8,000,000–$12,000,000 | 92% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=3,200 | sold |
| 35 A | Henri Matisse | Nature morte, fougères et grenades | $1,200,000–$1,800,000 | 91% | estimate 273× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 36 A | Wassily Kandinsky | Morgenstunde | $6,000,000–$8,000,000 | 91% | estimate 1,167× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 38 A | Pablo Picasso | Baigneuse au pouf rouge | $1,200,000–$1,800,000 | 92% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=9,299 | sold |
| 39 A | Pablo Picasso | Deux femmes | $1,000,000–$1,500,000 | 92% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=9,299 | sold |
| 40 A | Lee Krasner | Lotus | $1,800,000–$2,500,000 | 87% | estimate 358× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 41 A | Willem De Kooning | Untitled XVI | $6,000,000–$8,000,000 | 91% | estimate 1,077× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 42 A | René Magritte | L'Embellie | $6,000,000–$9,000,000 | 94% | artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=342 | sold |
| 43 A | Andy Warhol | Details of Renaissance Paintings (Sandro Botticelli, Birth of Venus, 1482) | $5,000,000–$7,000,000 | 91% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=5,598 | sold |
| 44 A | Salvador Dalí | Chair de poule rhinocérontique | $5,000,000–$8,000,000 | 88% | estimate 4,062× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 45 A | Remedios Varo | Energía cósmica (Inspiración) | $1,200,000–$1,800,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 46 A | Joseph Cornell | Untitled (Medici series, Pinturicchio Boy) | $3,000,000–$5,000,000 | 90% | estimate 200× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | unsold or withdrawn |
| 47 A | Aleksandr Rodchenko | Maquette for ‘War of the Future’ | $450,000–$650,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 48 A | Alexander Calder | Three Polygons, Eight Red | $3,000,000–$5,000,000 | 94% | artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=1,650 | sold |
| 49 A | Jackson Pollock | Untitled | $2,500,000–$3,500,000 | 91% | estimate 120× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | unsold or withdrawn |
| 50 A | Alice Neel | Mother and Child (Nancy and Olivia) | $1,200,000–$1,800,000 | 91% | estimate 429× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 51 A | Camille Pissarro | Meule et vaches dans le pré à Eragny, soleil couchant | $1,200,000–$1,800,000 | 90% | estimate 150× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 52 A | Childe Hassam | Across the Avenue in Sunlight, June 1918 | $6,000,000–$8,000,000 | 85% | estimate 175× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 53 A | Edgar Degas | Enfants et poneys dans un parc | $1,500,000–$2,500,000 | 88% | estimate 63× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 54 A | Gustave Caillebotte | Le Déjeuner | $5,500,000–$7,500,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 55 A | Alfred Sisley | Le viaduc d'Auteuil | $1,000,000–$1,500,000 | 94% | artist clears 82% at panel houses, n=89 | sold |
| 56 A | Pierre Bonnard | Nu aux babouches rouges | $800,000–$1,200,000 | 86% | estimate 333× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 57 A | Pierre-auguste Renoir | Jeune fille assise tenant une rose | $1,000,000–$1,500,000 | 91% | estimate 500× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 58 A | Marc Chagall | La princesse rouge au cirque | $2,000,000–$3,000,000 | 88% | estimate 678× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 59 A | Frank Stella | Hiraqla III | $1,000,000–$1,500,000 | 93% | artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=955 | sold |
| 60 A | Roy Lichtenstein | Mirror #5 (24") | $1,800,000–$2,500,000 | 93% | artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,963 | sold |
| 61 A | Roy Lichtenstein | Double Glass | $800,000–$1,200,000 | 93% | artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,963 | sold |
| 62 A | Marcel Duchamp | In Advance of the Broken Arm | $2,500,000–$3,500,000 | 90% | estimate 988× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 63 A | Marcel Duchamp | Monte Carlo Bond (No. 30) | $1,000,000–$2,000,000 | 90% | estimate 494× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 64 A | Pablo Picasso | Crâne, lampe, poireaux, vase | $3,000,000–$5,000,000 | 93% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=9,299 | sold |
| 65 A | Henry Moore | Double Standing Figure | $2,000,000–$4,000,000 | 89% | estimate 2,200× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.
Not in the forecast 1 lot carry no printed estimate
1 lot carries no printed estimate (estimate on request) and is not in the forecast. That is common at the top of an evening sale, so the value figure above understates the catalog.
| Lot | Artist | Work |
|---|---|---|
| 21 A | Mark Rothko | No. 15 (Two Greens and Red Stripe) |
Method and citation
- What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
- The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
- Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
- Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
- Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Christie's, 20th Century Evening Sale , 18 May 2026", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/13962. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.
Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.