Retrospective · Christie's scored
20th/21st Century Art - Evening Sale
Christie's, Paris · 15 April 2026 · sale page ↗. Retrospective — scored after the sale on the results as recorded; lots withdrawn before the sale are not in the record; the model that scored it was trained on data through 2025-09-15, before this sale.
Result scored 2026-09-16 · final
Forecast 91% (range 82–100%). Result 94%: 47 of 50 scored lots sold, 3 unsold or withdrawn. Inside the range, 3 pts above the forecast.
Ten lowest-scored lots: 0 of 10 unsold vs 3 of 40 others (the model expected about 2 of the ten unsold).
Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →
91% range 82–100%expected sell-through by lotof the 50 lots with a printed estimate
91%by low-estimate valueof $35M low estimate (USD; sale currency EUR)
46 41–50expected soldof 50 scored lots
0unscoredno printed estimate
2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots
Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.
Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 50 scored lots
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate | Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9 A | Mario Schifano | View beyond the Hudson River (To Anita Pallenberg) Gigli d'acqua | €200,000–€300,000 | 80% | sold |
| 31 A | Mario Schifano | Untitled | €120,000–€180,000 | 80% | sold |
| 42 A | Emilio Vedova | ...in continuum, compenetrazioni - traslati '87 - IV | €150,000–€200,000 | 83% | sold |
| 32 A | Jannis Kounellis | Sans titre | €600,000–€900,000 | 84% | sold |
| 22 A | Maurice De Vlaminck | La Femme au chapeau | €5,000,000–€7,000,000 | 85% | sold |
| 14 A | Giorgio De Chirico | Piazza d'Italia | €150,000–€200,000 | 85% | sold |
| 19 A | Salvatore Scarpitta | South Turn | €400,000–€600,000 | 86% | sold |
| 23 A | Piero Dorazio | Mira I | €140,000–€180,000 | 87% | sold |
| 45 A | Anish Kapoor | Sans titre | €400,000–€600,000 | 88% | sold |
| 37 A | Edgar Degas | Femme en peignoir jaune se coiffant | €1,800,000–€2,500,000 | 88% | sold |
In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.
By estimate band low estimate in USD
| Band | Lots | Expected | Low estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| $50k+ | 50 | 91% | $35M |
Context evening sales at Christie's, trailing year
Over the year before the sale (2025-04-15 to 2026-04-14), Christie's sold 92% of the 594 lots with a recorded outcome in its 16 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.
Every scored lot 50 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most
Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 90%, n=61,982 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · April sales clear 73%, n=417,345 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate EUR | Probability | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 A | Josef Albers | Study to Homage to the Square: Gay | €250,000–€350,000 | 94% | artist clears 90% at panel houses, n=709 | sold |
| 2 A | On Kawara | May 10, 1989 | €250,000–€350,000 | 92% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=57 | sold |
| 3 A | Gerhard Richter | Abstraktes Bild | €1,800,000–€2,500,000 | 93% | artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,129 | sold |
| 4 A | Pierre Soulages | Peinture 130 x 89 cm, 25 juin 1954 | €1,000,000–€1,500,000 | 91% | estimate 196× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 5 A | François-xavier Lalanne | Table 'Éléphantine' | €300,000–€500,000 | 96% | artist clears 93% at panel houses, n=819 | sold |
| 6 A | François-xavier Lalanne | Table 'Éléphantine' | €300,000–€500,000 | 96% | artist clears 93% at panel houses, n=819 | sold |
| 7 A | François-xavier Lalanne | 'Poisson paysage I' | €150,000–€250,000 | 97% | artist clears 93% at panel houses, n=819 | sold |
| 8 A | Anna-eva Bergman | No. 1-1964 Urbanisme | €100,000–€150,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 9 A | Mario Schifano | View beyond the Hudson River (To Anita Pallenberg) Gigli d'acqua | €200,000–€300,000 | 80% | estimate 845× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 10 A | Paul Klee | Promenade der Empfindsamen | €280,000–€400,000 | 89% | estimate 21× the artist's median hammer | sold |
| 11 A | Olga De Amaral | Poblado L | €400,000–€600,000 | 92% | artist clears 81% at panel houses, n=76 | sold |
| 12 A | Claude Lalanne | 'Pomme de New York' | €5,000,000–€7,000,000 | 96% | artist clears 93% at panel houses, n=813 | sold |
| 13 A | Joan Miró | Femme et oiseau | €450,000–€650,000 | 92% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=3,200 | sold |
| 14 A | Giorgio De Chirico | Piazza d'Italia | €150,000–€200,000 | 85% | estimate 205× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 16 A | Joan Miró | Femmes et oiseaux dans la nuit | €700,000–€1,000,000 | 92% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=3,200 | sold |
| 17 A | Jean-Michel Basquiat | Sans titre (Per Capita) | €250,000–€350,000 | 94% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=407 | sold |
| 18 A | Cy Twombly | Sans titre | €350,000–€550,000 | 94% | artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=303 | sold |
| 19 A | Salvatore Scarpitta | South Turn | €400,000–€600,000 | 86% | estimate 21× the artist's median hammer | sold |
| 20 A | Karel Appel | L'Oiseau de feu | €150,000–€250,000 | 90% | estimate 236× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 21 A | Jean Paul Riopelle | Sans titre | €1,000,000–€1,500,000 | 91% | estimate 49× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 22 A | Maurice De Vlaminck | La Femme au chapeau | €5,000,000–€7,000,000 | 85% | estimate 177× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 23 A | Piero Dorazio | Mira I | €140,000–€180,000 | 87% | estimate 299× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 24 A | Maria Helena Vieira Da Silva | Sans titre | €250,000–€350,000 | 89% | estimate 240× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 25 A | Lucio Fontana | Concetto spaziale, I muri | €250,000–€350,000 | 94% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=649 | sold |
| 26 A | Serge Poliakoff | Composition abstraite | €400,000–€600,000 | 89% | estimate 84× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 27 A | Le Corbusier | Nature morte claire à l'as de pique | €300,000–€500,000 | 90% | estimate 183× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 28 A | Jean Metzinger | La Pianiste | €600,000–€800,000 | 91% | estimate 9.7× the artist's median hammer | unsold or withdrawn |
| 29 A | Ettore Spalletti | Mobile | €100,000–€150,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 30 A | Zao Wou-ki | 01.01.99 | €600,000–€800,000 | 92% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=690 | sold |
| 31 A | Mario Schifano | Untitled | €120,000–€180,000 | 80% | estimate 507× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 32 A | Jannis Kounellis | Sans titre | €600,000–€900,000 | 84% | estimate 803× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 33 A | Lucio Fontana | [Concetto spaziale] | €350,000–€550,000 | 94% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=649 | sold |
| 34 A | Germaine Richier | Le Coureur, grand | €300,000–€500,000 | 95% | artist clears 84% at panel houses, n=51 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 35 A | Berthe Morisot | Jeune fille cueillant des oranges | €600,000–€800,000 | 90% | estimate 340× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 36 A | Berthe Morisot | Jeune fille accoudée avec le cachet de l'atelier 'Berthe Morisot' (en bas à gauche; Lugt 1826) huile sur toile 45.6 x 65 cm. Peint à Paris en 1887 | €700,000–€1,000,000 | 90% | estimate 413× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | unsold or withdrawn |
| 37 A | Edgar Degas | Femme en peignoir jaune se coiffant | €1,800,000–€2,500,000 | 88% | estimate 80× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 38 A | Pierre-auguste Renoir | Les Baigneuses | €400,000–€600,000 | 91% | estimate 236× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 39 A | Claude Monet | Bord de mer | €300,000–€500,000 | 97% | artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=157 | sold |
| 40 A | Claude Lalanne | Miroir, pièce unique | €600,000–€800,000 | 96% | artist clears 93% at panel houses, n=813 | sold |
| 41 A | Claude Lalanne | Paire de portes, commande spéciale pour l'exposition retrospective 'Les Lalanne', Musée des Arts Décoratifs, Paris, 2010 | €200,000–€300,000 | 96% | artist clears 93% at panel houses, n=813 | sold |
| 42 A | Emilio Vedova | ...in continuum, compenetrazioni - traslati '87 - IV | €150,000–€200,000 | 83% | estimate 251× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 43 A | Anthony Gormley | Another Time VI | €300,000–€500,000 | 94% | artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=256 | sold |
| 44 A | Günther Uecker | Dunkles Feld | €350,000–€550,000 | 93% | artist clears 82% at panel houses, n=160 | sold |
| 45 A | Anish Kapoor | Sans titre | €400,000–€600,000 | 88% | estimate 107× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 46 A | Giovanni Anselmo | Sans titre | €100,000–€150,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 47 A | Christo | Over the River (Project for Colorado, Arkansas River) | €120,000–€180,000 | 93% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=562 | sold |
| 48 A | Fernando Botero | La Dolorosa | €250,000–€350,000 | 93% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=454 | sold |
| 49 A | Chaïm Soutine | La Folle | €400,000–€600,000 | 93% | artist clears 75% at panel houses, n=43 | sold |
| 50 A | François-xavier Lalanne | 'Agneau', série 'Les Nouveaux Moutons' | €250,000–€350,000 | 97% | artist clears 93% at panel houses, n=819 | sold |
| 51 A | François-xavier Lalanne | 'Mouton de Pierre' | €250,000–€350,000 | 97% | artist clears 93% at panel houses, n=819 | sold |
Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.
Method and citation
- What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
- The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
- Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
- Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
- Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Christie's, 20th/21st Century Art - Evening Sale, 15 April 2026", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/13996. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.
Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.