Retrospective · Christie's scored
20th/21st Century Evening Sale
Christie's, Hong Kong · 27 March 2026 · sale page ↗. Retrospective — scored after the sale on the results as recorded; lots withdrawn before the sale are not in the record; the model that scored it was trained on data through 2025-09-15, before this sale.
Result scored 2026-09-16 · final
Forecast 92% (range 82–100%). Result 100%: 37 of 37 scored lots sold, 0 unsold or withdrawn. Inside the range, 8 pts above the forecast.
Ten lowest-scored lots: 0 of 10 unsold vs 0 of 27 others (the model expected about 1 of the ten unsold).
Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →
92% range 82–100%expected sell-through by lotof the 37 lots with a printed estimate
92%by low-estimate valueof $58M low estimate (USD; sale currency HKD)
34 30–37expected soldof 37 scored lots
0unscoredno printed estimate
2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots
Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.
Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 37 scored lots
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate | Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15 | Marc Chagall | Pastorale | HK$23,000,000–HK$33,000,000 | 88% | sold |
| 25 | Chu Teh-chun | Azur glaciaire (Glacial Blue) | HK$26,000,000–HK$36,000,000 | 89% | sold |
| 22 | Chu Teh-chun | Gris | HK$3,800,000–HK$5,500,000 | 90% | sold |
| 37 | Ju Ming | Taichi Series | HK$4,500,000–HK$6,500,000 | 91% | sold |
| 20 | Chen Wen Hsi | Herons | HK$1,500,000–HK$3,000,000 | 91% | sold |
| 23 | WU DAYU (1903-1988) | Rhymes of Beijing Opera | HK$7,800,000–HK$9,800,000 | 91% | sold |
| 14 | Pierre-auguste Renoir | Madeleine au corsage blanc et bouquet de fleurs | HK$11,000,000–HK$20,000,000 | 91% | sold |
| 5 | Salvo | La fine del giorno (The End of the Day) | HK$1,400,000–HK$1,800,000 | 91% | sold |
| 21 | Lalan | Untitled | HK$2,800,000–HK$3,800,000 | 91% | sold |
| 18 | Walter Spies | Blick von der höhe (A view from the heights) | HK$48,000,000–HK$68,000,000 | 92% | sold |
In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.
By estimate band low estimate in USD
| Band | Lots | Expected | Low estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| $50k+ | 37 | 92% | $58M |
Context evening sales at Christie's, trailing year
Over the year before the sale (2025-03-27 to 2026-03-26), Christie's sold 91% of the 685 lots with a recorded outcome in its 18 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.
Every scored lot 37 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most
Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 90%, n=61,982 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · March sales clear 73%, n=432,955 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate HKD | Probability | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Li Hei Di | In the Excitement of Dying | HK$500,000–HK$800,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 2 | Hilary Pecis | Inside/Outside | HK$3,000,000–HK$5,000,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 3 | Huang Yuxing | Moonrise Over Mountain and River | HK$3,000,000–HK$5,000,000 | 95% | artist clears 83% at panel houses, n=71 | sold |
| 4 | Lenz Geerk | Couple on a Fresco | HK$1,000,000–HK$2,000,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 5 | Salvo | La fine del giorno (The End of the Day) | HK$1,400,000–HK$1,800,000 | 91% | artist clears 84% at panel houses, n=184 | sold |
| 6 | Claude Monet | La maison à travers les roses | HK$16,000,000–HK$26,000,000 | 96% | artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=157 | sold |
| 7 | Vincent Van Gogh | Meisje in het bosch (A Girl in a Wood) | HK$10,000,000–HK$20,000,000 | 95% | artist clears 81% at panel houses, n=46 | sold |
| 8 | Gerhard Richter | Abstraktes Bild | HK$78,000,000–HK$98,000,000 | 93% | artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,129 | sold |
| 9 | Sanyu | Cheval agenouillé sur un tapis (Kneeling Horse on Carpet) | HK$28,000,000–HK$48,000,000 | 94% | artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=182 | sold |
| 10 | Jean-Michel Basquiat | Untitled | HK$18,000,000–HK$28,000,000 | 92% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=407 | sold |
| 11 | Pablo Picasso | Nu couché et musicien | HK$12,000,000–HK$20,000,000 | 93% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=9,299 | sold |
| 12 | David Hockney | The Chair | HK$32,000,000–HK$48,000,000 | 95% | artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=2,584 | sold |
| 13 | Sanyu | Modèle nue, assise, de dos II (Seated Nude Model, Viewed from the Back II) | HK$11,000,000–HK$20,000,000 | 94% | artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=182 | sold |
| 14 | Pierre-auguste Renoir | Madeleine au corsage blanc et bouquet de fleurs | HK$11,000,000–HK$20,000,000 | 91% | estimate 791× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 15 | Marc Chagall | Pastorale | HK$23,000,000–HK$33,000,000 | 88% | estimate 969× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 16 | Johannes Goedaert | Flowers in a Chinese porcelain vase, with butterflies and other insects | HK$3,500,000–HK$5,500,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 17 | Zao Wou-ki | Cathédrale et ses environs - 07.08.51-08.09.51 (Cathedral and Its Surroundings - 07.08.51-08.09.51) | HK$28,000,000–HK$38,000,000 | 92% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=690 | sold |
| 18 | Walter Spies | Blick von der höhe (A view from the heights) | HK$48,000,000–HK$68,000,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 19 | Adrien-jean Le Mayeur De Merprès | Balinese women weaving in the garden, Sanur, Bali | HK$3,800,000–HK$7,000,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 20 | Chen Wen Hsi | Herons | HK$1,500,000–HK$3,000,000 | 91% | estimate 35× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 21 | Lalan | Untitled | HK$2,800,000–HK$3,800,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 22 | Chu Teh-chun | Gris | HK$3,800,000–HK$5,500,000 | 90% | estimate 115× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 23 | WU DAYU (1903-1988) | Rhymes of Beijing Opera | HK$7,800,000–HK$9,800,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 24 | Zao Wou-ki | 22.10.60 | HK$15,000,000–HK$22,000,000 | 92% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=690 | sold |
| 25 | Chu Teh-chun | Azur glaciaire (Glacial Blue) | HK$26,000,000–HK$36,000,000 | 89% | estimate 768× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 26 | Natee Utarit | Micro history of politic no. 4 – Lost | HK$600,000–HK$800,000 | 93% | artist clears 77% at panel houses, n=47 | sold |
| 27 | Ronald Ventura | Framed | HK$1,000,000–HK$2,000,000 | 94% | artist clears 79% at panel houses, n=45 | sold |
| 28 | Atsushi Kaga | YES! (A bag made by my mother) | HK$500,000–HK$1,000,000 | 96% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=50 | sold |
| 29 | Takashi Murakami | A Sketch of Anywhere Door (Dokodemo Door) and an Excellent Day | HK$4,000,000–HK$6,000,000 | 93% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=1,577 | sold |
| 30 | Yayoi Kusama | Pumpkin | HK$32,000,000–HK$40,000,000 | 94% | artist clears 90% at panel houses, n=1,350 | sold |
| 31 | Kohei Nawa | PixCell-Deer#68 | HK$5,000,000–HK$8,000,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 32 | Lee Ufan | From Line | HK$8,000,000–HK$12,000,000 | 92% | artist clears 81% at panel houses, n=100 | sold |
| 33 | Rhee Seundja | Une anémone sauvage (A Wild Anemone) | HK$2,800,000–HK$4,800,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 34 | Lee Bae | Brushstroke-9F | HK$450,000–HK$650,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 35 | Affandi | Sphinx & Pyramids | HK$2,400,000–HK$4,500,000 | 92% | artist clears 80% at panel houses, n=87 | sold |
| 36 | Hendra Gunawan | Kuda Lumping | HK$2,000,000–HK$4,000,000 | 94% | artist clears 83% at panel houses, n=56 | sold |
| 37 | Ju Ming | Taichi Series | HK$4,500,000–HK$6,500,000 | 91% | estimate 10× the artist's median hammer | sold |
Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.
Method and citation
- What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
- The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
- Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
- Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
- Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Christie's, 20th/21st Century Evening Sale, 27 March 2026", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/14011. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.
Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.