Result scored 2026-09-16 · final

Forecast 91% (range 78–100%). Result 96%: 24 of 25 scored lots sold, 1 unsold or withdrawn. Inside the range, 5 pts above the forecast.

Ten lowest-scored lots: 1 of 10 unsold vs 0 of 15 others (the model expected about 1 of the ten unsold).

Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →

91% range 78–100%expected sell-through by lotof the 25 lots with a printed estimate

91%by low-estimate valueof $11M low estimate (USD; sale currency GBP)

23 19–25expected soldof 25 scored lots

0unscoredno printed estimate

2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots

Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.

Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 25 scored lots

Lot	Artist	Work	Estimate	Probability	Result
18	Henry Moore	Head of a Girl	£130,000–£180,000	88%	unsold or withdrawn
17	Henry Moore	Mother Preparing Child for Bath	£120,000–£180,000	88%	sold
1	Henry Moore	Stringed Figure	£150,000–£250,000	88%	sold
5	Ben Nicholson O.m.	1938 (white relief)	£300,000–£500,000	89%	sold
11	Ben Nicholson O.m.	Sept 29-53 (Fiesole)	£300,000–£500,000	89%	sold
15	Ben Nicholson O.m.	1940 (painted relief - version 1)	£150,000–£250,000	89%	sold
25	WILLIAM SCOTT, R.A. (1913-1989)	Orange Still Life with Figure	£250,000–£350,000	90%	sold
7	Frank Auerbach	Christmas Tree at Mornington Crescent	£1,500,000–£2,000,000	91%	sold
8	Howard Hodgkin	Sunset in Naples	£120,000–£180,000	91%	sold
4	Harold Gilman	Still life of a white cup, saucer and jug on a table	£280,000–£380,000	91%	sold

In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.

By estimate band low estimate in USD

Band	Lots	Expected	Low estimate
$50k+	25	91%	$11M

Context evening sales at Christie's, trailing year

Over the year before the sale (2025-03-18 to 2026-03-17), Christie's sold 91% of the 684 lots with a recorded outcome in its 18 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.

Every scored lot 25 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most

Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 90%, n=61,982 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · March sales clear 73%, n=432,955 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.

Lot	Artist	Work	Estimate GBP	Probability	Why	Result
1	Henry Moore	Stringed Figure	£150,000–£250,000	88%	estimate 195× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
2	LAURENCE STEPHEN LOWRY, R.A. (1887-1976)	Lancashire Farm	£200,000–£300,000	94%	artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=950	sold
3	GLYN PHILPOT, R.A. (1884-1937)	Balthazar	£200,000–£300,000	92%	sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982	sold
4	Harold Gilman	Still life of a white cup, saucer and jug on a table	£280,000–£380,000	91%	sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982	sold
5	Ben Nicholson O.m.	1938 (white relief)	£300,000–£500,000	89%	estimate 114× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
6	Dame Barbara Hepworth	Solitary Form	£500,000–£700,000	93%	artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=117	sold
7	Frank Auerbach	Christmas Tree at Mornington Crescent	£1,500,000–£2,000,000	91%	estimate 103× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
8	Howard Hodgkin	Sunset in Naples	£120,000–£180,000	91%	estimate 80× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
9	Peter Phillips	Motorpsycho/Ace	£100,000–£150,000	92%	sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982	sold
11	Ben Nicholson O.m.	Sept 29-53 (Fiesole)	£300,000–£500,000	89%	estimate 114× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
12	LYNN CHADWICK, R.A. (1914-2003)	Back to Venice	£1,000,000–£1,500,000	92%	artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=453	sold
13	Dame Barbara Hepworth	Curved Form	£750,000–£1,000,000	93%	artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=117	sold
14	C.h. Bridget Riley	Recollection	£800,000–£1,200,000	92%	sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982	sold
15	Ben Nicholson O.m.	1940 (painted relief - version 1)	£150,000–£250,000	89%	estimate 57× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
16	Emily Young	Purbeck Blue Angel	£100,000–£150,000	92%	sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982	sold
17	Henry Moore	Mother Preparing Child for Bath	£120,000–£180,000	88%	estimate 146× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
18	Henry Moore	Head of a Girl	£130,000–£180,000	88%	estimate 151× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	unsold or withdrawn
19	LAURENCE STEPHEN LOWRY, R.A. (1887-1976)	The Black Tower	£300,000–£500,000	95%	artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=950	sold
20	Frank Auerbach	Tower Blocks, Hampstead Road II	£250,000–£350,000	92%	artist clears 84% at panel houses, n=197	sold
21	Dame Elizabeth Frink	Seated Man II	£300,000–£500,000	92%	sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982	sold
22	SIR WINSTON SPENCER CHURCHILL, O.M., R.A. (1874-1965)	Riviera Coast Scene	£300,000–£500,000	92%	sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982	sold
23	SIR JOHN LAVERY, R.A., R.S.A., R.H.A. (1856-1941)	After Breakfast, Tangier	£180,000–£250,000	91%	sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982	sold
24	LYNN CHADWICK, R.A. (1914-2003)	Untitled (to Marie-Rose)	£100,000–£150,000	94%	artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=453	sold
25	WILLIAM SCOTT, R.A. (1913-1989)	Orange Still Life with Figure	£250,000–£350,000	90%	estimate 128× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
26	Barry Flanagan	Virtue	£120,000–£180,000	94%	artist clears 82% at panel houses, n=71	sold

Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.

Method and citation

What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Christie's, Modern British and Irish Art Evening Sale , 18 March 2026", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/14024. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.

Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.