Retrospective · Christie's scored
20th / 21st Century: London Evening Sale
Christie's, London · 5 March 2026 · sale page ↗. Retrospective — scored after the sale on the results as recorded; lots withdrawn before the sale are not in the record; the model that scored it was trained on data through 2025-09-15, before this sale.
Result scored 2026-09-16 · final
Forecast 91% (range 79–100%). Result 92%: 33 of 36 scored lots sold, 3 unsold or withdrawn. Inside the range, 1 pts above the forecast.
Ten lowest-scored lots: 2 of 10 unsold vs 1 of 26 others (the model expected about 1 of the ten unsold).
Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →
91% range 79–100%expected sell-through by lotof the 36 lots with a printed estimate
91%by low-estimate valueof $103M low estimate (USD; sale currency GBP)
33 28–36expected soldof 36 scored lots
0unscoredno printed estimate
2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots
Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.
Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 36 scored lots
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate | Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 27 | Emil Nolde | Blumengarten (Bonde) | £1,500,000–£2,500,000 | 84% | sold |
| 18 | Michelangelo Pistoletto | Lei e Lui - Maria e Michelangelo (Her and Him - Maria and Michelangelo) | £1,000,000–£1,500,000 | 87% | sold |
| 23 | John Singer Sargent, Ra | Study for 'Carnation, Lily, Lily, Rose' | £3,000,000–£5,000,000 | 87% | sold |
| 30 | Hurvin Anderson | Untitled (Lower Lake) | £1,500,000–£2,000,000 | 88% | sold |
| 35 | Marc Chagall | Le coq-peintre à Paris | £1,000,000–£1,500,000 | 88% | sold |
| 7 | Henry Moore | King and Queen | £10,000,000–£15,000,000 | 88% | sold |
| 39 | Marc Chagall | Tête de cheval en rouge avec couple en bleu aux fleurs | £900,000–£1,500,000 | 88% | unsold or withdrawn |
| 24 | Edgar Degas | Femme sortant du bain | £1,500,000–£2,500,000 | 88% | sold |
| 37 | Gerald Laing | Beach Wear | £1,000,000–£1,500,000 | 89% | unsold or withdrawn |
| 2 | Lucian Freud | Lemon | £600,000–£800,000 | 90% | sold |
In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.
By estimate band low estimate in USD
| Band | Lots | Expected | Low estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| $50k+ | 36 | 91% | $103M |
Context evening sales at Christie's, trailing year
Over the year before the sale (2025-03-05 to 2026-03-04), Christie's sold 92% of the 659 lots with a recorded outcome in its 17 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.
Every scored lot 36 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most
Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 90%, n=61,982 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · March sales clear 73%, n=432,955 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate GBP | Probability | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Lucian Freud | Bella | £300,000–£500,000 | 90% | estimate 33× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 2 | Lucian Freud | Lemon | £600,000–£800,000 | 90% | estimate 58× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 3 | Lucian Freud | The Birds of Olivier Larronde | £800,000–£1,200,000 | 90% | estimate 83× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 4 | Sonia Delaunay | Rythme couleur | £1,000,000–£1,500,000 | 94% | artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=483 | sold |
| 6 | Paula Rego | Dancing Ostriches from Walt Disney's 'Fantasia' | £1,800,000–£2,500,000 | 90% | estimate 2,095× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 7 | Henry Moore | King and Queen | £10,000,000–£15,000,000 | 88% | estimate 12,246× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 8 | Gerhard Richter | Schober (Haybarn) | £6,000,000–£9,000,000 | 93% | artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,129 | sold |
| 9 | Gerhard Richter | Abstraktes Bild | £4,500,000–£6,500,000 | 93% | artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,129 | sold |
| 10 | Eduardo Chillida | Modulación del espacio III (Modulation of Space III) | £800,000–£1,200,000 | 91% | estimate 779× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 11 | Wassily Kandinsky | Le rond rouge | £10,500,000–£15,500,000 | 91% | estimate 2,895× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 12 | Cy Twombly | Untitled (Rome) | £2,500,000–£3,500,000 | 94% | artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=303 | sold |
| 13 | Jean Paul Riopelle | La Forêt (The Forest) | £1,300,000–£1,800,000 | 90% | estimate 69× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 14 | Howard Hodgkin | In the Green Room | £1,000,000–£1,500,000 | 91% | estimate 668× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 15 | Kazuo Shiraga | Yagenko | £1,000,000–£1,500,000 | 92% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=115 | sold |
| 16 | Lucio Fontana | Concetto spaziale | £500,000–£700,000 | 93% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=649 | sold |
| 17 | Andy Warhol | Four Mona Lisas | £3,500,000–£5,500,000 | 92% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=5,598 | sold |
| 18 | Michelangelo Pistoletto | Lei e Lui - Maria e Michelangelo (Her and Him - Maria and Michelangelo) | £1,000,000–£1,500,000 | 87% | estimate 474× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 19 | Alberto Giacometti | Buste d'homme sur socle | £900,000–£1,200,000 | 93% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=543 | sold |
| 20 | Frank Auerbach | Gerda Boehm | £500,000–£800,000 | 91% | estimate 38× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 21 | Pablo Picasso | Le peintre et son modèle | £7,000,000–£10,000,000 | 92% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=9,299 | sold |
| 23 | John Singer Sargent, Ra | Study for 'Carnation, Lily, Lily, Rose' | £3,000,000–£5,000,000 | 87% | estimate 67× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 24 | Edgar Degas | Femme sortant du bain | £1,500,000–£2,500,000 | 88% | estimate 84× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 25 | Claude Monet | Le Parc Monceau | £5,500,000–£8,500,000 | 96% | artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=157 | sold |
| 27 | Emil Nolde | Blumengarten (Bonde) | £1,500,000–£2,500,000 | 84% | estimate 61× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 28 | Peter Doig | Tour de Charvet | £2,500,000–£3,500,000 | 91% | estimate 1,455× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 30 | Hurvin Anderson | Untitled (Lower Lake) | £1,500,000–£2,000,000 | 88% | estimate 121× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 31 | Pierre-auguste Renoir | Rochers de l'Estaque | £600,000–£900,000 | 91% | estimate 401× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 32 | David Hockney | Study for Olympic Poster | £500,000–£700,000 | 94% | artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=2,584 | sold |
| 33 | Caroline Walker | Imaginative Play I | £180,000–£250,000 | 95% | artist clears 84% at panel houses, n=131 | sold |
| 34 | Lucian Freud | Ib | £1,200,000–£1,800,000 | 90% | estimate 125× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 35 | Marc Chagall | Le coq-peintre à Paris | £1,000,000–£1,500,000 | 88% | estimate 453× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 36 | Georg Baselitz | Typ mit Fahne (Type with Flag) | £300,000–£500,000 | 91% | estimate 141× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | unsold or withdrawn |
| 37 | Gerald Laing | Beach Wear | £1,000,000–£1,500,000 | 89% | estimate 742× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | unsold or withdrawn |
| 38 | Rose Wylie | Tube Girl | £50,000–£70,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 39 | Marc Chagall | Tête de cheval en rouge avec couple en bleu aux fleurs | £900,000–£1,500,000 | 88% | estimate 435× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | unsold or withdrawn |
| 40 | Eduardo Chillida | Gudari Txiki (Little Soldier) | £500,000–£700,000 | 91% | estimate 467× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.
Method and citation
- What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
- The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
- Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
- Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
- Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Christie's, 20th / 21st Century: London Evening Sale , 5 March 2026", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/14050. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.
Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.