Retrospective · Christie's scored
Modern Visionaries - The Roger and Josette Vanthournout Collection - Evening Sale
Christie's, London · 5 March 2026 · sale page ↗. Retrospective — scored after the sale on the results as recorded; lots withdrawn before the sale are not in the record; the model that scored it was trained on data through 2025-09-15, before this sale.
Result scored 2026-09-16 · final
Forecast 92% (range 79–100%). Result 97%: 30 of 31 scored lots sold, 1 unsold or withdrawn. Inside the range, 5 pts above the forecast.
Ten lowest-scored lots: 0 of 10 unsold vs 1 of 21 others (the model expected about 1 of the ten unsold).
Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →
92% range 79–100%expected sell-through by lotof the 31 lots with a printed estimate
92%by low-estimate valueof $38M low estimate (USD; sale currency GBP)
28 25–31expected soldof 31 scored lots
0unscoredno printed estimate
2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots
Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.
Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 31 scored lots
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate | Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 229 | Jacques Lipchitz | Jeune fille à la tresse | £400,000–£700,000 | 87% | sold |
| 217 | Michelangelo Pistoletto | Tre Uomini in Grigio (Three Men in Grey) | £250,000–£350,000 | 87% | sold |
| 227 | Bruce Nauman | Double Poke in the Eye II | £250,000–£350,000 | 87% | sold |
| 224 | Paul Delvaux | L'orage | £100,000–£150,000 | 87% | sold |
| 203 | Yves Tanguy | Hérédité des qualités acquises | £300,000–£500,000 | 87% | sold |
| 215 | Henry Moore | Goslar Warrior | £3,500,000–£5,500,000 | 88% | sold |
| 210 | Max Ernst | Seestück (Seascape) | £1,500,000–£2,500,000 | 89% | sold |
| 209 | Man Ray | La prière (The prayer) | £50,000–£70,000 | 89% | sold |
| 228 | Robert Mangold | Curved Plane / Figure VII (Study B) | £180,000–£250,000 | 90% | sold |
| 211 | Jean | Constellation de sept formes blanches sur fond blanc | £180,000–£250,000 | 90% | sold |
In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.
By estimate band low estimate in USD
| Band | Lots | Expected | Low estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| $50k+ | 31 | 92% | $38M |
Context evening sales at Christie's, trailing year
Over the year before the sale (2025-03-05 to 2026-03-04), Christie's sold 92% of the 659 lots with a recorded outcome in its 17 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.
Every scored lot 31 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most
Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 90%, n=61,982 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · March sales clear 73%, n=432,955 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate GBP | Probability | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 201 | Josef Albers | Homage to the Square | £400,000–£600,000 | 94% | artist clears 90% at panel houses, n=709 | sold |
| 202 | Auguste Herbin | Joie II | £80,000–£120,000 | 91% | estimate 5.4× the artist's median hammer | sold |
| 203 | Yves Tanguy | Hérédité des qualités acquises | £300,000–£500,000 | 87% | estimate 44× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 204 | François-xavier Lalanne | 'Grenouille Fontaine', circa 1982 | £250,000–£350,000 | 96% | artist clears 93% at panel houses, n=819 | sold |
| 205 | Pablo Picasso | Nu debout et femmes assises | £3,000,000–£5,000,000 | 93% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=9,299 | sold |
| 206 | Cy Twombly | Untitled (Rome) | £600,000–£800,000 | 94% | artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=303 | sold |
| 207 | Agnes Martin | Untitled #17 | £2,000,000–£3,000,000 | 91% | estimate 688× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 208 | René Magritte | Le lieu-dit (The spot on the map) | £2,000,000–£3,000,000 | 94% | artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=342 | sold |
| 209 | Man Ray | La prière (The prayer) | £50,000–£70,000 | 89% | estimate 55× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 210 | Max Ernst | Seestück (Seascape) | £1,500,000–£2,500,000 | 89% | estimate 1,406× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 211 | Jean | Constellation de sept formes blanches sur fond blanc | £180,000–£250,000 | 90% | estimate 204× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 212 | Yayoi Kusama | Infinity Nets | £2,000,000–£3,000,000 | 94% | artist clears 90% at panel houses, n=1,350 | sold |
| 213 | René Magritte | La plaine de l'air (The plain of the air) | £3,500,000–£5,500,000 | 94% | artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=342 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 214 | Gustave De Smet | De aanbidder van de acrobate (L'adorateur de l'acrobate) | £300,000–£500,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 215 | Henry Moore | Goslar Warrior | £3,500,000–£5,500,000 | 88% | estimate 4,409× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 216 | Lucio Fontana | Concetto spaziale, Attese | £2,000,000–£3,000,000 | 92% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=649 | sold |
| 217 | Michelangelo Pistoletto | Tre Uomini in Grigio (Three Men in Grey) | £250,000–£350,000 | 87% | estimate 114× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 218 | Thomas Schütte | Kleine Geister (Little Spirits) | £600,000–£800,000 | 92% | artist clears 74% at panel houses, n=104 | sold |
| 219 | Jean Dubuffet | J'opterai pour l'e rreur (I will choose the mistake) | £1,500,000–£2,000,000 | 93% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=824 | sold |
| 220 | LYNN CHADWICK, R.A. (1914-2003) | Stranger III | £500,000–£800,000 | 92% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=453 | sold |
| 221 | Joan Miró | L’échelle | £150,000–£250,000 | 92% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=3,200 | sold |
| 222 | Tracey Emin | A certain degree of anger | £600,000–£800,000 | 92% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=657 | sold |
| 223 | LYNN CHADWICK, R.A. (1914-2003) | Teddy Boy and Girl | £500,000–£800,000 | 92% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=453 | sold |
| 224 | Paul Delvaux | L'orage | £100,000–£150,000 | 87% | estimate 76× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 225 | Germaine Richier | L'Orage (The Storm) | £250,000–£350,000 | 95% | artist clears 84% at panel houses, n=51 | sold |
| 226 | Germaine Richier | L'Ouragane (The Hurricane) | £250,000–£350,000 | 95% | artist clears 84% at panel houses, n=51 | sold |
| 227 | Bruce Nauman | Double Poke in the Eye II | £250,000–£350,000 | 87% | estimate 167× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 228 | Robert Mangold | Curved Plane / Figure VII (Study B) | £180,000–£250,000 | 90% | estimate 91× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 229 | Jacques Lipchitz | Jeune fille à la tresse | £400,000–£700,000 | 87% | estimate 367× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 230 | Anthony Gormley | Medium | £400,000–£600,000 | 94% | artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=256 | sold |
| 231 | Barry Flanagan | The Bowler | £500,000–£800,000 | 92% | artist clears 82% at panel houses, n=71 | sold |
Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.
Method and citation
- What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
- The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
- Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
- Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
- Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Christie's, Modern Visionaries - The Roger and Josette Vanthournout Collection - Evening Sale, 5 March 2026", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/14052. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.
Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.