Result scored 2026-09-16 · final

Forecast 90% (range 76–100%). Result 100%: 26 of 26 scored lots sold, 0 unsold or withdrawn. Inside the range, 10 pts above the forecast.

Ten lowest-scored lots: 0 of 10 unsold vs 0 of 16 others (the model expected about 1 of the ten unsold).

Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →

90% range 76–100%expected sell-through by lotof the 26 lots with a printed estimate

92%by low-estimate valueof $31M low estimate (USD; sale currency GBP)

23 20–26expected soldof 26 scored lots

0unscoredno printed estimate

2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots

Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.

Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 26 scored lots

Lot	Artist	Work	Estimate	Probability	Result
125	André Masson	Oedipe	£130,000–£180,000	84%	sold
107	André Masson	L'œuf de verre	£160,000–£240,000	85%	sold
123	Odilon Redon	Profil bleu	£500,000–£800,000	86%	sold
112	Paul Delvaux	La Ville lunaire	£2,000,000–£3,000,000	87%	sold
121	Paul Delvaux	L'Été	£1,500,000–£2,500,000	87%	sold
119	Salvador Dalí	Le conseil des dieux	£140,000–£180,000	88%	sold
111	Odilon Redon	La grappe or Le marchand de ballons	£150,000–£250,000	88%	sold
126	Max Ernst	Ohne Titel	£60,000–£80,000	88%	sold
106	Max Ernst	La Parisienne	£400,000–£600,000	88%	sold
110	Léon Spilliaert	Galeries royales d'Ostende et kiosque	£350,000–£550,000	89%	sold

In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.

By estimate band low estimate in USD

Band	Lots	Expected	Low estimate
$50k+	26	90%	$31M

Context evening sales at Christie's, trailing year

Over the year before the sale (2025-03-05 to 2026-03-04), Christie's sold 92% of the 659 lots with a recorded outcome in its 17 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.

Every scored lot 26 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most

Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 90%, n=61,982 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · March sales clear 73%, n=432,955 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.

Lot	Artist	Work	Estimate GBP	Probability	Why	Result
101	René Magritte	La grande marée	£1,200,000–£1,800,000	94%	artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=342	sold
102	Victor Brauner	Le poète assassiné	£200,000–£300,000	90%	estimate 54× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
103	Joan Miró	Peinture	£1,500,000–£2,500,000	92%	artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=3,200	sold
104	Joan Miró And Josep Llorens Artigas	Tête personnage	£100,000–£200,000	92%	sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982	sold
105	Pablo Picasso	Figure	£600,000–£800,000	92%	artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=9,299	sold
106	Max Ernst	La Parisienne	£400,000–£600,000	88%	estimate 352× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
107	André Masson	L'œuf de verre	£160,000–£240,000	85%	estimate 350× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
108	René Magritte	Les grâces naturelles	£7,000,000–£10,000,000	94%	artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=342	sold
109	René Magritte	L'esprit et la forme	£500,000–£800,000	95%	artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=342	sold
110	Léon Spilliaert	Galeries royales d'Ostende et kiosque	£350,000–£550,000	89%	estimate 38× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
111	Odilon Redon	La grappe or Le marchand de ballons	£150,000–£250,000	88%	estimate 16× the artist's median hammer	sold
112	Paul Delvaux	La Ville lunaire	£2,000,000–£3,000,000	87%	estimate 1,518× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
113	René Magritte	La jeunesse illustrée	£1,800,000–£2,500,000	94%	artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=342	sold
114	Max Ernst	Sun over the desert	£300,000–£500,000	89%	estimate 281× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
115	René Magritte	Shéhérazade	£600,000–£900,000	94%	artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=342	sold
117	Joan Miró	Personnages devant la lune	£650,000–£950,000	92%	artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=3,200	sold
118	Francis Picabia	Tournez rare	£500,000–£800,000	90%	estimate 35× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
119	Salvador Dalí	Le conseil des dieux	£140,000–£180,000	88%	estimate 134× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
120	Dorothea Tanning	Children's Games	£1,000,000–£2,000,000	91%	estimate 445× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
121	Paul Delvaux	L'Été	£1,500,000–£2,500,000	87%	estimate 1,215× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
122	Toyen	Le devenir de la liberté	£1,200,000–£2,200,000	92%	sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982	sold
123	Odilon Redon	Profil bleu	£500,000–£800,000	86%	estimate 51× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
124	Max Ernst	Le monde des flous - Refus absolu de vivre comme un tachiste	£350,000–£550,000	89%	estimate 316× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
125	André Masson	Oedipe	£130,000–£180,000	84%	estimate 271× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
126	Max Ernst	Ohne Titel	£60,000–£80,000	88%	estimate 49× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
127	Roberto Matta	Projection des liquides des substances VI	£50,000–£70,000	89%	estimate 27× the artist's median hammer	sold

Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.

Method and citation

What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Christie's, The Art of the Surreal Evening Sale, 5 March 2026", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/14053. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.

Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.