Retrospective · Christie's scored
COLLECTOR/CONNOISSEUR: The Max N. Berry Collections; American Art Evening Sale
Christie's, New York · 22 January 2026 · sale page ↗. Retrospective — scored after the sale on the results as recorded; lots withdrawn before the sale are not in the record; the model that scored it was trained on data through 2025-09-15, before this sale.
Result scored 2026-09-16 · final
Forecast 91% (range 79–100%). Result 91%: 29 of 32 scored lots sold, 3 unsold or withdrawn. Inside the range, 0 pts below the forecast.
Ten lowest-scored lots: 1 of 10 unsold vs 2 of 22 others (the model expected about 1 of the ten unsold).
Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →
91% range 79–100%expected sell-through by lotof the 32 lots with a printed estimate
90%by low-estimate valueof $9.6M low estimate
29 25–32expected soldof 32 scored lots
0unscoredno printed estimate
2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots
Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.
Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 32 scored lots
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate | Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 18 B | Childe Hassam | Gloucester Harbor | $1,000,000–$1,500,000 | 86% | sold |
| 20 B | Maurice Brazil Prendergast | The Bridle Path, Central Park | $500,000–$700,000 | 86% | sold |
| 7 B | George Inness | Delaware Water Gap | $600,000–$800,000 | 87% | sold |
| 22 B | William Merritt Chase | Afternoon in the Park | $700,000–$1,000,000 | 88% | sold |
| 17 B | Maurice Brazil Prendergast | Gloucester Harbor | $300,000–$500,000 | 88% | sold |
| 8 B | Winslow Homer | A Mountain Climber Resting | $1,500,000–$2,500,000 | 89% | sold |
| 15 B | Andrew Wyeth | In the Orchard | $400,000–$600,000 | 90% | unsold or withdrawn |
| 5 B | Albert Bierstadt | Mirror Lake (Yosemite Valley, Sunset) | $1,200,000–$1,800,000 | 91% | sold |
| 3 B | John Williamson | View of New York Harbor | $60,000–$80,000 | 92% | sold |
| 19 B | Charles E. Prendergast | Screen: A Double-Sided Work | $600,000–$800,000 | 92% | sold |
In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.
By estimate band low estimate in USD
| Band | Lots | Expected | Low estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| $5k–15k | 4 | 92% | $41K |
| $15k–50k | 4 | 92% | $115K |
| $50k+ | 24 | 91% | $9.4M |
Context evening sales at Christie's, trailing year
Over the year before the sale (2025-01-22 to 2026-01-21), Christie's sold 92% of the 627 lots with a recorded outcome in its 16 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.
Every scored lot 32 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most
Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 90%, n=61,982 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · January sales clear 74%, n=274,587 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate USD | Probability | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 B | ROBERT M. PRATT (1811-1880) | The Young Connoisseur | $12,000–$18,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 2 B | John Frederick Kensett | Sunset off Newport | $30,000–$50,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 3 B | John Williamson | View of New York Harbor | $60,000–$80,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 4 B | Sanford Robinson Gifford | A Sunrise on Lake George | $700,000–$1,000,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 5 B | Albert Bierstadt | Mirror Lake (Yosemite Valley, Sunset) | $1,200,000–$1,800,000 | 91% | estimate 43× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 6 B | Robert Havell Jr. | West Point from Fort Putnam: A Group of Three Works | $40,000–$60,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 7 B | George Inness | Delaware Water Gap | $600,000–$800,000 | 87% | estimate 47× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 8 B | Winslow Homer | A Mountain Climber Resting | $1,500,000–$2,500,000 | 89% | estimate 25× the artist's median hammer | sold |
| 9 B | Robert Spear Dunning | Straw Hat with Cherries | $80,000–$120,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 10 B | James Peale | Still Life of Fruit with a Porcelain Bowl | $200,000–$300,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 11 B | William J. Mccloskey | Wrapped Oranges | $250,000–$350,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 12 B | Martin Johnson Heade | Cherokee Roses on Blue Velvet | $120,000–$180,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 13 B | Charles Ethan Porter | Petunias | $10,000–$15,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 14 B | John La Farge | Camellia in a Japanese Bowl | $50,000–$70,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 15 B | Andrew Wyeth | In the Orchard | $400,000–$600,000 | 90% | estimate 6.7× the artist's median hammer | unsold or withdrawn |
| 16 B | James Carroll Beckwith | Breck | $100,000–$150,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 17 B | Maurice Brazil Prendergast | Gloucester Harbor | $300,000–$500,000 | 88% | estimate 8.9× the artist's median hammer | sold |
| 18 B | Childe Hassam | Gloucester Harbor | $1,000,000–$1,500,000 | 86% | estimate 31× the artist's median hammer | sold |
| 19 B | Charles E. Prendergast | Screen: A Double-Sided Work | $600,000–$800,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 20 B | Maurice Brazil Prendergast | The Bridle Path, Central Park | $500,000–$700,000 | 86% | estimate 13× the artist's median hammer | sold |
| 21 B | John Singer Sargent, Ra | Reine Ormond | $60,000–$80,000 | 93% | artist clears 75% at panel houses, n=61 | sold |
| 22 B | William Merritt Chase | Afternoon in the Park | $700,000–$1,000,000 | 88% | estimate 47× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 23 B | Fidelia Bridges | Garden Path | $12,000–$18,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 24 B | Fidelia Bridges | Birds in a Marsh Landscape | $25,000–$35,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 25 B | ARCHIBALD CARY SMITH (1837-1911) | Thimble Islands, Near New Haven | $20,000–$30,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 26 B | Thomas Worthington Whittredge | Sunrise on the Water | $100,000–$150,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 27 B | Francis Augustus Silva | Seining on the Tappan Zee, Nyack, New York | $300,000–$500,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 28 B | William Bradford | Afternoon along the Coast of Labrador | $80,000–$120,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 29 B | John Frederick Peto | Office Board for John F. Peto | $70,000–$100,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 30 B | John Frederick Peto | Letter Rack on Black Door | $400,000–$600,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 31 B | William Michael Harnett | An Evening's Comfort | $60,000–$80,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 32 B | Louis Charles Moeller | Another Investment | $7,000–$10,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.
Method and citation
- What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
- The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
- Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
- Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
- Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Christie's, COLLECTOR/CONNOISSEUR: The Max N. Berry Collections; American Art Evening Sale, 22 January 2026", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/14097. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.
Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.