Result scored 2026-09-16 · final

Forecast 90% (range 75–100%). Result 92%: 23 of 25 scored lots sold, 2 unsold or withdrawn. Inside the range, 2 pts above the forecast.

Ten lowest-scored lots: 1 of 10 unsold vs 1 of 15 others (the model expected about 1 of the ten unsold).

Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →

90% range 75–100%expected sell-through by lotof the 25 lots with a printed estimate

88%by low-estimate valueof $43M low estimate

22 19–25expected soldof 25 scored lots

0unscoredno printed estimate

2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots

Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.

Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 25 scored lots

Lot	Artist	Work	Estimate	Probability	Result
13 A	Charles Marion Russell	Dust	$5,000,000–$7,000,000	86%	sold
3 A	Charles Marion Russell	Smoking Them Out	$1,000,000–$1,500,000	86%	sold
12 A	Charles Marion Russell	The Sun Worshippers	$4,000,000–$6,000,000	86%	unsold or withdrawn
2 A	Charles Marion Russell	Scattering the Riders	$500,000–$700,000	86%	sold
10 A	Charles Marion Russell	Buffalo Hunt	$400,000–$600,000	87%	sold
11 A	Frederic Remington	Coming to the Call	$6,000,000–$8,000,000	88%	sold
21 A	Frederic Remington	The Trooper	$5,000,000–$7,000,000	88%	sold
7 A	Frederic Remington	An Argument with the Town Marshall	$4,000,000–$6,000,000	88%	sold
8 A	Frederic Remington	Coming Through the Rye	$4,000,000–$6,000,000	88%	sold
4 A	Frank Tenney Johnson	The Stampede	$500,000–$700,000	88%	sold

In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.

By estimate band low estimate in USD

Band	Lots	Expected	Low estimate
$50k+	25	90%	$43M

Context evening sales at Christie's, trailing year

Over the year before the sale (2025-01-20 to 2026-01-19), Christie's sold 92% of the 602 lots with a recorded outcome in its 15 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.

Every scored lot 25 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most

Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 90%, n=61,982 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · January sales clear 74%, n=274,587 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.

Lot	Artist	Work	Estimate USD	Probability	Why	Result
1 A	Frederic Remington	The Broncho Buster	$250,000–$350,000	91%	estimate 6.7× the artist's median hammer	sold
2 A	Charles Marion Russell	Scattering the Riders	$500,000–$700,000	86%	estimate 27× the artist's median hammer	sold
3 A	Charles Marion Russell	Smoking Them Out	$1,000,000–$1,500,000	86%	estimate 56× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
4 A	Frank Tenney Johnson	The Stampede	$500,000–$700,000	88%	estimate 125× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
5 A	G. HARVEY (1933-2017)	Texas Oil Patch	$400,000–$600,000	92%	sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982	sold
6 A	Newell Convers Wyeth	Wild Bill Hickok at the Cards	$1,000,000–$1,500,000	92%	sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982	sold
7 A	Frederic Remington	An Argument with the Town Marshall	$4,000,000–$6,000,000	88%	estimate 111× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
8 A	Frederic Remington	Coming Through the Rye	$4,000,000–$6,000,000	88%	estimate 111× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
9 A	Frederic Remington	The Broncho Buster (Large Version)	$300,000–$500,000	91%	estimate 8.9× the artist's median hammer	sold
10 A	Charles Marion Russell	Buffalo Hunt	$400,000–$600,000	87%	estimate 22× the artist's median hammer	sold
11 A	Frederic Remington	Coming to the Call	$6,000,000–$8,000,000	88%	estimate 156× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
12 A	Charles Marion Russell	The Sun Worshippers	$4,000,000–$6,000,000	86%	estimate 222× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	unsold or withdrawn
13 A	Charles Marion Russell	Dust	$5,000,000–$7,000,000	86%	estimate 267× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
14 A	Cyrus Edwin Dallin	Appeal to the Great Spirit	$120,000–$180,000	92%	sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982	sold
15 A	James Earle Fraser	The End of the Trail	$400,000–$600,000	92%	sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982	sold
16 A	Frederic Remington	The Horse Thief	$3,000,000–$5,000,000	88%	estimate 89× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
17 A	Alfred Jacob Miller	The Buffalo Hunt	$2,000,000–$3,000,000	92%	sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982	sold
18 A	Albert Bierstadt	Mountain Lake	$2,000,000–$3,000,000	91%	estimate 71× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	unsold or withdrawn
19 A	Henry F. Farny	Cornered, An Incident of the Apache War	$500,000–$700,000	92%	sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982	sold
20 A	Frederic Remington	Trooper of the Plains 1868	$300,000–$500,000	91%	estimate 8.9× the artist's median hammer	sold
21 A	Frederic Remington	The Trooper	$5,000,000–$7,000,000	88%	estimate 133× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
22 A	Frederic Remington	The Trooper and His Mare	$600,000–$800,000	89%	estimate 16× the artist's median hammer	sold
23 A	Charles Schreyvogel	Saving Their Lieutenant	$1,000,000–$1,500,000	92%	sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982	sold
24 A	William Robinson Leigh	Buffalo Fights Back	$250,000–$350,000	92%	sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982	sold
25 A	William Robinson Leigh	Home, Sweet Home	$600,000–$800,000	92%	sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982	sold

Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.

Method and citation

What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Christie's, Visions of the West: The William I. Koch Collection Evening Sale, 20 January 2026", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/14099. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.

Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.