Retrospective · Christie's scored
Old Masters Evening Sale
Christie's, London · 2 December 2025 · sale page ↗. Retrospective — scored after the sale on the results as recorded; lots withdrawn before the sale are not in the record; the model that scored it was trained on data through 2025-09-15, before this sale.
Result scored 2026-09-16 · final
Forecast 91% (range 79–100%). Result 64%: 21 of 33 scored lots sold, 12 unsold or withdrawn. Outside the range, 27 pts below the forecast.
Ten lowest-scored lots: 2 of 10 unsold vs 10 of 23 others (the model expected about 1 of the ten unsold).
Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →
91% range 79–100%expected sell-through by lotof the 33 lots with a printed estimate
91%by low-estimate valueof $14M low estimate (USD; sale currency GBP)
30 26–33expected soldof 33 scored lots
0unscoredno printed estimate
2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots
Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.
Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 33 scored lots
In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.
By estimate band low estimate in USD
| Band | Lots | Expected | Low estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| $15k–50k | 1 | 91% | $40K |
| $50k+ | 32 | 91% | $14M |
Context evening sales at Christie's, trailing year
Over the year before the sale (2024-12-02 to 2025-12-01), Christie's sold 93% of the 569 lots with a recorded outcome in its 14 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.
Every scored lot 33 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most
Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 90%, n=61,982 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · December sales clear 70%, n=454,780 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate GBP | Probability | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | DAVID TENIERS THE YOUNGER (ANTWERP 1610-1690 BRUSSELS) | The Temptation of Saint Anthony | £30,000–£50,000 | 91% | estimate 1.1× the artist's median hammer | sold |
| 2 | Circle Of Cornelis Norbertus Gysbrechts | A trompe l'oeil of an open glazed cupboard door, with letters, writing implements and silver and gold coins | £70,000–£100,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 3 | FLEMISH SCHOOL, CIRCA 1600 | The Cumaean Sibyl leading Aeneas to the Underworld | £150,000–£250,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 4 | Workshop Of Giuseppe Arcimboldo | The Four Seasons | £800,000–£1,200,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 5 | Pieter Lastman | The Sacrifice of Manoah | £100,000–£150,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 6 | Gerrit Dou | The Flute Player | £2,000,000–£3,000,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 7 | Marten Van Cleve | The procession of the groom; The procession of the bride; The presentation of the gifts; The wedding feast; The blessing of the marital bed; and The dismissal of the lover | £400,000–£600,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 8 | Jan Josefsz Van Goyen | Brussels, with a ferry pulled by two horses | £100,000–£150,000 | 91% | artist clears 72% at panel houses, n=54 | sold |
| 9 | Jacob Van Ruisdael | A wooded landscape with cottages, villagers and a dog beyond | £100,000–£150,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 10 | Sir Peter Paul Rubens | The Martyrdom of Saint Paul – a modello | £800,000–£1,200,000 | 88% | estimate 47× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 11 | Matthias Stom | Head of a laughing man | £50,000–£70,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 12 | Frans Snyders | Game, plums and grapes on a red table cloth, next to a basket of grapes | £200,000–£300,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 13 | ANTWERP SCHOOL, LATE 16TH CENTURY | An Allegory with Mercury and Erato | £100,000–£150,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 14 | Denijs Van Alsloot | A forest landscape with Diana discovering the pregnancy of Callisto, with a view of the Priory of Groenendael in the background | £200,000–£300,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 15 | Jacob Jordaens | Four studies of a man's head | £150,000–£250,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 16 | JAN WIJNANTS (HAARLEM 1631⁄2-1684 AMSTERDAM) AND ADRIAEN VAN DE VELDE (AMSTERDAM 1636-1672) | A wooded landscape with figures on a path and a lake beyond | £700,000–£1,000,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 17 | WILLIAM HODGES, R.A. (LONDON 1744-1797 BRIXHAM) | A group of musicians playing Sarangi, a Tambura and Tablas | £120,000–£180,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 18 | WILLIAM HODGES, R.A. (LONDON 1744-1797 BRIXHAM) | Paharia tribesmen, with bows and arrows, and a Bengali woman in a wooded landscape | £80,000–£120,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 19 | WILLIAM HODGES, R.A. (LONDON 1744-1797 BRIXHAM) | A Paharia village outside Bhagalpur, Bihar | £60,000–£100,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 20 | FRANÇOIS-PASCAL-SIMON GÉRARD, BARON GÉRARD (ROME 1770-1837 PARIS) AND STUDIO | Portrait of Napoleon Bonaparte (1769-1821), Emperor of France, three-quarter-length, in Coronation robes | £80,000–£120,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 21 | Artemisia Gentileschi | A Woman presenting her Child to Saint Blaise | £400,000–£600,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 22 | Domenico Beccafumi | The Holy Family with the Infant Saint John the Baptist and Saint Catherine of Siena | £1,000,000–£1,500,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 23 | Carlo Dolci | A female martyr saint | £150,000–£200,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 24 | LUCA GIORDANO (NAPLES 1632-1705) AND GIOVANNI BATTISTA RUOPPOLO (NAPLES 1629-1693) | Allegory of Autumn | £400,000–£600,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 25 | Gianndomenico Tiepolo | A bearded man in a fur-lined coat, bust-length | £70,000–£100,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 26 | Bernardo Bellotto | Venice, The Grand Canal looking North from the Rialto Bridge | £1,000,000–£1,500,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 27 | Jan Fyt | A wooded landscape with a still-life of fruit, a guinea pig and a sulphur-crested cockatoo | £100,000–£150,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 28 | WILLEM VAN DE VELDE THE YOUNGER (LEIDEN 1633-1707 LONDON) | The Departure of William of Orange and Princess Mary for Holland, November 1677 | £100,000–£150,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 29 | Simon De Vlieger | A beach scene with horsemen and fishermen with their catch | £150,000–£250,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 30 | Pieter Nason | Portrait of a young boy, dressed as a warrior; and Portrait of a young boy, dressed as a hunter | £120,000–£180,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 31 | Charles-Antoine Coypel | The Destruction of the Palace of Armida | £250,000–£350,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 32 | Richard Parkes Bonington | Naufrage : A vessel in distress in a storm off Calais Pier | £400,000–£600,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 33 | Lemuel Francis Abbott | Portrait of Horatio, Viscount Nelson (1758-1805), half-length, in rear-admiral's uniform, wearing the Star and Ribbon of the Bath and the Naval Gold Medal | £200,000–£300,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.
Method and citation
- What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
- The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
- Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
- Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
- Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Christie's, Old Masters Evening Sale , 2 December 2025", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/14149. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.
Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.