Retrospective · Christie's scored
21st Century Evening Sale Featuring Works from the Edlis | Neeson Collection
Christie's, New York · 19 November 2025 · sale page ↗. Retrospective — scored after the sale on the results as recorded; lots withdrawn before the sale are not in the record; the model that scored it was trained on data through 2025-09-15, before this sale.
Result scored 2026-09-16 · final
Forecast 90% (range 79–100%). Result 98%: 44 of 45 scored lots sold, 1 unsold or withdrawn. Inside the range, 8 pts above the forecast.
Ten lowest-scored lots: 0 of 10 unsold vs 1 of 35 others (the model expected about 1 of the ten unsold).
Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →
90% range 79–100%expected sell-through by lotof the 45 lots with a printed estimate
90%by low-estimate valueof $88M low estimate
41 36–45expected soldof 45 scored lots
0unscoredno printed estimate
2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots
Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.
Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 45 scored lots
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate | Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35 B | El Anatsui | Tagomizor | $1,200,000–$1,800,000 | 85% | sold |
| 37 B | Maurizio Cattelan | Untitled | $800,000–$1,200,000 | 87% | sold |
| 41 B | Richard Prince | The Wrong Joke | $1,500,000–$2,000,000 | 87% | sold |
| 3 B | Richard Prince | Untitled (Cowboy) | $2,000,000–$3,000,000 | 87% | sold |
| 13 B | John Currin | Lake Place | $2,500,000–$3,500,000 | 87% | sold |
| 8 B | Richard Prince | Double Nurse | $3,000,000–$5,000,000 | 87% | sold |
| 42 B | Joan Brown | After the Alcatraz Swim #2 | $200,000–$300,000 | 88% | sold |
| 44 B | Gabriel Orozco | Spinning and Rotating | $400,000–$600,000 | 88% | sold |
| 14 B | Jeff Koons | Gazing Ball (Courbet Sleep) | $600,000–$800,000 | 88% | sold |
| 16 B | Jeff Koons | Popeye (Green) | $600,000–$800,000 | 88% | sold |
In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.
By estimate band low estimate in USD
| Band | Lots | Expected | Low estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| $50k+ | 45 | 90% | $88M |
Context evening sales at Christie's, trailing year
Over the year before the sale (2024-11-19 to 2025-11-18), Christie's sold 92% of the 619 lots with a recorded outcome in its 15 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.
Every scored lot 45 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most
Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 90%, n=61,982 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · November sales clear 71%, n=519,833 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate USD | Probability | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 B | Andy Warhol | Skull | $800,000–$1,200,000 | 91% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=5,598 | sold |
| 2 B | Cindy Sherman | Untitled Film Still #13 | $500,000–$700,000 | 89% | estimate 150× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 3 B | Richard Prince | Untitled (Cowboy) | $2,000,000–$3,000,000 | 87% | estimate 811× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 4 B | Ed Ruscha | How Do You Do? | $5,000,000–$7,000,000 | 91% | estimate 1,000× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 5 B | Andy Warhol | Oxidation Painting (Diptych) | $900,000–$1,200,000 | 91% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=5,598 | sold |
| 6 B | Diego Giacometti | 'Promenade des amis' Console, designed circa 1977 | $3,000,000–$5,000,000 | 95% | artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=286 | sold |
| 7 B | Andy Warhol | The Last Supper | $6,000,000–$8,000,000 | 91% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=5,598 | sold |
| 8 B | Richard Prince | Double Nurse | $3,000,000–$5,000,000 | 87% | estimate 1,298× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 9 B | George Condo | Abstract Conversation | $3,000,000–$5,000,000 | 92% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=740 | sold |
| 10 B | Tom Wesselmann | Great American Nude #41 | $500,000–$700,000 | 89% | estimate 75× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 11 B | Claes Oldenburg | Stockinged Thighs Framed by Skirt | $600,000–$800,000 | 88% | estimate 700× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 12 B | Diego Giacometti | 'Bibliothèque au Mexique', designed circa 1966, executed circa 1967 | $600,000–$800,000 | 96% | artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=286 | sold |
| 12BB | Diego Giacometti | 'Bibliothèque au Mexique', designed circa 1966 | $600,000–$800,000 | 96% | artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=286 | sold |
| 13 B | John Currin | Lake Place | $2,500,000–$3,500,000 | 87% | estimate 200× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 14 B | Jeff Koons | Gazing Ball (Courbet Sleep) | $600,000–$800,000 | 88% | estimate 127× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 15 B | Luc Tuymans | Evidence | $250,000–$350,000 | 93% | artist clears 78% at panel houses, n=87 | sold |
| 16 B | Jeff Koons | Popeye (Green) | $600,000–$800,000 | 88% | estimate 127× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 17 B | Ron Mueck | Big Baby 3 | $700,000–$1,000,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 18 B | Diego Giacometti | 'Berceau' Low Table, Modèle aux Renards, circa 1974 | $1,500,000–$2,500,000 | 95% | artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=286 | sold |
| 19 B | Firelei Báez | Untitled (Colonization in America, Visual History Wall Map, Prepared by Civic Education Service) | $150,000–$200,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 20 B | Elizabeth Peyton | Flowers, Lichtenstein, Parsifal | $500,000–$700,000 | 88% | estimate 136× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 21 B | Amy Sherald | A Clear Unspoken Granted Magic | $2,000,000–$3,000,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 22 B | Elizabeth Peyton | Kurt | $2,000,000–$3,000,000 | 89% | estimate 568× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 23 B | Glenn Ligon | Double America 2 | $2,500,000–$3,500,000 | 89% | estimate 133× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 24 B | Cecily Brown | It's not yesterday anymore | $4,000,000–$6,000,000 | 89% | estimate 48× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | unsold or withdrawn |
| 25 B | Christopher Wood | Untitled (RIOT) | $15,000,000–$20,000,000 | 90% | estimate 3,427× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 26 B | Kerry James Marshall | Portrait of John Punch (Angry Black Man 1646) | $4,000,000–$6,000,000 | 92% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=76 | sold |
| 27 B | Marlene Dumas | De acteur (Portrait of Romana Vrede) | $3,000,000–$5,000,000 | 89% | estimate 799× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 28 B | Reggie Burrows Hodges | For the Greater Good: Orange | $400,000–$600,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 29 B | Jeff Koons | Wall Relief with Bird | $2,000,000–$3,000,000 | 89% | estimate 455× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 30 B | Christopher Wood | Untitled | $1,500,000–$2,000,000 | 90% | estimate 343× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 31 B | Julie Mehretu | Ringside | $2,500,000–$3,500,000 | 89% | estimate 167× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 32 B | Agnes Martin | Untitled #12 | $3,000,000–$5,000,000 | 90% | estimate 824× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 33 B | John Baldessari | Commissioned Painting: A Painting by Edgar Transue | $1,500,000–$2,000,000 | 89% | estimate 461× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 34 B | Olga De Amaral | Pueblo H | $400,000–$600,000 | 92% | artist clears 81% at panel houses, n=76 | sold |
| 35 B | El Anatsui | Tagomizor | $1,200,000–$1,800,000 | 85% | estimate 44× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 36 B | Adrian Ghenie | Boogeyman | $2,500,000–$3,500,000 | 94% | artist clears 82% at panel houses, n=90 | sold |
| 37 B | Maurizio Cattelan | Untitled | $800,000–$1,200,000 | 87% | estimate 3,530× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 38 B | Noah Davis | A Snail's Pace | $700,000–$1,000,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 39 B | Steven Shearer | Drag II | $500,000–$700,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 40 B | Takashi Murakami | Miss Ko² (Project Ko²) | $1,800,000–$2,500,000 | 92% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=1,577 | sold |
| 41 B | Richard Prince | The Wrong Joke | $1,500,000–$2,000,000 | 87% | estimate 568× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 42 B | Joan Brown | After the Alcatraz Swim #2 | $200,000–$300,000 | 88% | estimate 23× the artist's median hammer | sold |
| 43 B | Albert Oehlen | Ohne Titel | $800,000–$1,200,000 | 89% | estimate 18× the artist's median hammer | sold |
| 44 B | Gabriel Orozco | Spinning and Rotating | $400,000–$600,000 | 88% | estimate 56× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.
Method and citation
- What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
- The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
- Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
- Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
- Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Christie's, 21st Century Evening Sale Featuring Works from the Edlis | Neeson Collection, 19 November 2025", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/14165. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.
Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.