Retrospective · Christie's scored
20th Century Evening Sale
Christie's, New York · 17 November 2025 · sale page ↗. Retrospective — scored after the sale on the results as recorded; lots withdrawn before the sale are not in the record; the model that scored it was trained on data through 2025-09-15, before this sale.
Result scored 2026-09-16 · final
Forecast 91% (range 82–100%). Result 98%: 59 of 60 scored lots sold, 1 unsold or withdrawn. Inside the range, 8 pts above the forecast.
Ten lowest-scored lots: 0 of 10 unsold vs 1 of 50 others (the model expected about 1 of the ten unsold).
Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →
91% range 82–100%expected sell-through by lotof the 60 lots with a printed estimate
91%by low-estimate valueof $312M low estimate
54 49–60expected soldof 60 scored lots
1unscoredno printed estimate
2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots
Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.
Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 60 scored lots
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate | Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 57 A | Leonor Fini | Dans la tour (Autoportrait avec Constantin Jeleński) | $2,000,000–$3,000,000 | 84% | sold |
| 59 A | John Singer Sargent, Ra | Corner of the Church of San Stae, Venice | $6,000,000–$8,000,000 | 86% | sold |
| 71 A | David Smith | Voltri-Bolton IV | $1,200,000–$1,800,000 | 86% | sold |
| 58 A | John Singer Sargent, Ra | Capri | $4,000,000–$6,000,000 | 86% | sold |
| 19 A | John Singer Sargent, Ra | Gondolier's Siesta | $2,000,000–$3,000,000 | 86% | sold |
| 51 A | Henry Moore | Reclining Woman: Elbow | $9,000,000–$12,000,000 | 87% | sold |
| 26 A | Marc Chagall | Le soleil rouge ou Le soleil des amoureux | $7,000,000–$10,000,000 | 87% | sold |
| 25 A | Marc Chagall | Le songe du Roi David | $8,000,000–$12,000,000 | 88% | sold |
| 67 A | Edgar Degas | La Coiffure (La Toilette) | $4,000,000–$6,000,000 | 88% | sold |
| 72 A | Henry Moore | Bronze Form | $3,000,000–$5,000,000 | 88% | sold |
In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.
By estimate band low estimate in USD
| Band | Lots | Expected | Low estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| $50k+ | 60 | 91% | $312M |
Context evening sales at Christie's, trailing year
Over the year before the sale (2024-11-17 to 2025-11-16), Christie's sold 91% of the 558 lots with a recorded outcome in its 14 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.
Every scored lot 60 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most
Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 90%, n=61,982 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · November sales clear 71%, n=519,833 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate USD | Probability | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 A | John Singer Sargent, Ra | Gondolier's Siesta | $2,000,000–$3,000,000 | 86% | estimate 31× the artist's median hammer | sold |
| 20 A | Beauford Delaney | The Sage Black | $500,000–$700,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 21 A | Joan Mitchell | Sunflower V | $12,000,000–$18,000,000 | 94% | artist clears 90% at panel houses, n=265 | sold |
| 22 A | Claude Monet | Nymphéas | $40,000,000–$60,000,000 | 94% | artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=157 | sold |
| 23 A | Pierre-auguste Renoir | Baigneuse | $7,500,000–$10,000,000 | 90% | estimate 3,500× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 24 A | Henri Matisse | Nu au fauteuil, main gauche sous la tête | $2,500,000–$3,500,000 | 91% | estimate 545× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 25 A | Marc Chagall | Le songe du Roi David | $8,000,000–$12,000,000 | 88% | estimate 2,712× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 26 A | Marc Chagall | Le soleil rouge ou Le soleil des amoureux | $7,000,000–$10,000,000 | 87% | estimate 2,305× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 27 A | Isamu Noguchi | Myo | $2,000,000–$3,000,000 | 91% | estimate 1,667× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 28 A | Alexander Calder | Painted Wood | $15,000,000–$20,000,000 | 93% | artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=1,650 | sold |
| 30 A | Henri Matisse | Océanie, le ciel | $1,500,000–$2,500,000 | 91% | estimate 364× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 31 A | Richard Diebenkorn | Ocean Park #40 | $15,000,000–$25,000,000 | 91% | estimate 5,263× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 32 A | Wayne Thiebaud | River Stretch | $3,000,000–$5,000,000 | 92% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=532 | sold |
| 33 A | Lucian Freud | The Painter Surprised by a Naked Admirer | $15,000,000–$25,000,000 | 90% | estimate 1,247× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 34 A | Fernand Léger | Les Confidences (Les deux femmes au bouquet) | $6,000,000–$8,000,000 | 89% | estimate 700× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 35 A | Lucian Freud | Naked Portrait in a Red Chair | $3,500,000–$5,500,000 | 90% | estimate 281× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 36 A | Man Ray | Sade, Pas Terminé, 1933 | $1,800,000–$2,500,000 | 89% | estimate 1,479× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | unsold or withdrawn |
| 37 A | Alexander Calder | Acrobats | $5,000,000–$7,000,000 | 93% | artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=1,650 | sold |
| 38 A | Alberto Giacometti | Buste d'homme (Diego) | $5,000,000–$8,000,000 | 93% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=543 | sold |
| 39 A | Charles White | Preacher (Reverend Man) | $1,200,000–$1,800,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 40 A | Pablo Picasso | Mousquetaire, tête | $3,000,000–$5,000,000 | 92% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=9,299 | sold |
| 41 A | David Hockney | My Garden in Los Angeles, London, July 2000 | $7,500,000–$10,000,000 | 94% | artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=2,584 | sold |
| 42 A | Agnes Pelton | Incarnation | $1,200,000–$1,800,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 43 A | Ellsworth Kelly | York | $2,000,000–$3,000,000 | 92% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=735 | sold |
| 44 A | Georgia O'keeffe | The Red Maple at Lake George | $10,000,000–$15,000,000 | 93% | artist clears 77% at panel houses, n=107 | sold |
| 45 A | Fernand Léger | Composition (Nature morte) | $15,000,000–$25,000,000 | 90% | estimate 2,000× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 46 A | František Kupka | Sans titre | $400,000–$600,000 | 89% | estimate 25× the artist's median hammer | sold |
| 47 A | František Kupka | Une Pensée | $4,500,000–$6,500,000 | 89% | estimate 278× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 48 A | Barbara Hepworth | Two Forms in Echelon | $2,000,000–$3,000,000 | 92% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=137 | sold |
| 49 A | Pablo Picasso | Le Baigneur | $3,500,000–$5,500,000 | 92% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=9,299 | sold |
| 50 A | Barbara Hepworth | The Family of Man (Figure 5, Parent II) | $5,000,000–$7,000,000 | 92% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=137 | sold |
| 51 A | Henry Moore | Reclining Woman: Elbow | $9,000,000–$12,000,000 | 87% | estimate 7,699× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 52 A | Pablo Picasso | Femme dans un fauteuil | $3,000,000–$5,000,000 | 92% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=9,299 | sold |
| 53 A | Henri Matisse | Femme au chapeau fleuri | $9,000,000–$12,000,000 | 91% | estimate 1,909× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 54 A | Edvard Munch | Morgen, Naken kvinne ved vinduet (Morning, Nude at the Window) | $2,500,000–$3,500,000 | 89% | estimate 375× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 55 A | Fernando Botero | Florero | $1,200,000–$1,800,000 | 92% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=454 | sold |
| 56 A | Frida Kahlo | Window Display on a Detroit Street ( Aparador en una calle de Detroit) | $6,000,000–$8,000,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 57 A | Leonor Fini | Dans la tour (Autoportrait avec Constantin Jeleński) | $2,000,000–$3,000,000 | 84% | estimate 1,735× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 58 A | John Singer Sargent, Ra | Capri | $4,000,000–$6,000,000 | 86% | estimate 62× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 59 A | John Singer Sargent, Ra | Corner of the Church of San Stae, Venice | $6,000,000–$8,000,000 | 86% | estimate 88× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 60 A | Joseph Mallord William Turner Ra | Ehrenbreitstein, or The Bright Stone of Honour and the Tomb of Marceau, from Byron’s 'Childe Harold's Pilgrimage' | $12,000,000–$18,000,000 | 92% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=111 | sold |
| 61 A | Paul Signac | Les Andelys, les bains (Opus no. 137, Les bains à Lucas) | $2,500,000–$3,500,000 | 93% | artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=250 | sold |
| 62 A | Paul Signac | Les Andelys, Port Morin (Opus no. 136) | $1,500,000–$2,500,000 | 93% | artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=250 | sold |
| 64 A | Georges Seurat | L'Hôtel des Invalides, vue d'un parapet de la Seine | $700,000–$1,000,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 65 A | Paul Signac | Quimper (Quai de l'Odet) | $5,000,000–$8,000,000 | 93% | artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=250 | sold |
| 66 A | Camille Pissarro | Neige et givre à Eragny | $1,500,000–$2,500,000 | 90% | estimate 200× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 67 A | Edgar Degas | La Coiffure (La Toilette) | $4,000,000–$6,000,000 | 88% | estimate 158× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 68 A | Agnes Martin | Untitled | $1,500,000–$2,500,000 | 90% | estimate 412× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 69 A | Kim Whan-ki | 19-Vi-71 #206 | $7,500,000–$10,000,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 70 A | Lee Ufan | From Winds | $1,000,000–$1,500,000 | 92% | artist clears 81% at panel houses, n=100 | sold |
| 71 A | David Smith | Voltri-Bolton IV | $1,200,000–$1,800,000 | 86% | estimate 54× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 72 A | Henry Moore | Bronze Form | $3,000,000–$5,000,000 | 88% | estimate 2,933× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 73 A | Fernand Léger | Nature morte | $1,500,000–$2,500,000 | 90% | estimate 200× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 74 A | Alberto Giacometti | Nature morte dans l'atelier | $1,500,000–$2,500,000 | 93% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=543 | sold |
| 75 A | Claude Monet | Falaise des Petites-Dalles | $2,800,000–$3,500,000 | 96% | artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=157 | sold |
| 76 A | Amedeo Modigliani | Nu assis | $4,000,000–$6,000,000 | 90% | estimate 341× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 77 A | Alexander Calder | Untitled | $1,500,000–$2,000,000 | 93% | artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=1,650 | sold |
| 78 A | Frank Stella | Paradoxe sur le comédien | $4,000,000–$6,000,000 | 93% | artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=955 | sold |
| 79 A | Robert Delaunay | Relief orange | $1,300,000–$1,800,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 80 A | Pablo Picasso | Mère et enfant | $4,000,000–$6,000,000 | 92% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=9,299 | sold |
Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.
Not in the forecast 1 lot carry no printed estimate
1 lot carries no printed estimate (estimate on request) and is not in the forecast. That is common at the top of an evening sale, so the value figure above understates the catalog.
| Lot | Artist | Work |
|---|---|---|
| 29 A | David Hockney | Christopher Isherwood and Don Bachardy |
Method and citation
- What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
- The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
- Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
- Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
- Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Christie's, 20th Century Evening Sale , 17 November 2025", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/14177. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.
Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.