Retrospective · Christie's scored
Modern British and Irish Art Evening Sale
Christie's, London · 22 October 2025 · sale page ↗. Retrospective — scored after the sale on the results as recorded; lots withdrawn before the sale are not in the record; the model that scored it was trained on data through 2025-09-15, before this sale.
Result scored 2026-09-16 · final
Forecast 91% (range 79–100%). Result 81%: 26 of 32 scored lots sold, 6 unsold or withdrawn. Inside the range, 10 pts below the forecast.
Ten lowest-scored lots: 2 of 10 unsold vs 4 of 22 others (the model expected about 1 of the ten unsold).
Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →
91% range 79–100%expected sell-through by lotof the 32 lots with a printed estimate
91%by low-estimate valueof $19M low estimate (USD; sale currency GBP)
29 25–32expected soldof 32 scored lots
0unscoredno printed estimate
2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots
Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.
Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 32 scored lots
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate | Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Allen Jones | Tree | £200,000–£300,000 | 84% | sold |
| 16 | SIR STANLEY SPENCER, R.A. (1891-1959) | The Meeting | £1,200,000–£1,800,000 | 86% | sold |
| 18 | Euan Uglow | Nude with Lake Lugano | £200,000–£300,000 | 87% | sold |
| 23 | Ben Nicholson O.m. | Le Petit Provençal | £250,000–£350,000 | 88% | sold |
| 7 | Ben Nicholson O.m. | December 1942 - April 1944 (abstract painting) | £800,000–£1,200,000 | 88% | sold |
| 26 | Roderic O'conor | Apples and Pear | £120,000–£180,000 | 89% | sold |
| 1 | Ben Nicholson O.m. | 1935 (painting) | £50,000–£70,000 | 89% | sold |
| 30 | Leon Kossoff | Nude on a Red Bed, Summer | £350,000–£550,000 | 90% | unsold or withdrawn |
| 2 | Paul Nash | Cloud and Two Stones | £100,000–£150,000 | 90% | sold |
| 32 | WILLIAM SCOTT, R.A. (1913-1989) | Painting | £180,000–£250,000 | 90% | unsold or withdrawn |
In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.
By estimate band low estimate in USD
| Band | Lots | Expected | Low estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| $50k+ | 32 | 91% | $19M |
Context evening sales at Christie's, trailing year
Over the year before the sale (2024-10-22 to 2025-10-21), Christie's sold 92% of the 551 lots with a recorded outcome in its 14 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.
Every scored lot 32 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most
Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 90%, n=61,982 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · October sales clear 72%, n=457,310 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate GBP | Probability | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Ben Nicholson O.m. | 1935 (painting) | £50,000–£70,000 | 89% | estimate 17× the artist's median hammer | sold |
| 2 | Paul Nash | Cloud and Two Stones | £100,000–£150,000 | 90% | estimate 40× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 3 | Sir William Nicholson | Souvenirs | £200,000–£300,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 4 | Harold Gilman | Portrait of Mrs Bevan | £120,000–£180,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 5 | C.h. Bridget Riley | Dendera | £1,000,000–£1,500,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 6 | Dame Barbara Hepworth | The Family of Man (Figure 8, The Bride) | £3,000,000–£5,000,000 | 93% | artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=117 | sold |
| 7 | Ben Nicholson O.m. | December 1942 - April 1944 (abstract painting) | £800,000–£1,200,000 | 88% | estimate 286× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 8 | Dame Barbara Hepworth | Vertical Wood Form | £1,500,000–£2,500,000 | 93% | artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=117 | sold |
| 9 | LAURENCE STEPHEN LOWRY, R.A. (1887-1976) | A Footbridge | £400,000–£600,000 | 94% | artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=950 | sold |
| 10 | LYNN CHADWICK, R.A. (1914-2003) | Beast Alerted I | £500,000–£800,000 | 92% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=453 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 11 | LYNN CHADWICK, R.A. (1914-2003) | Conjunction XII | £250,000–£350,000 | 92% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=453 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 12 | WILLIAM SCOTT, R.A. (1913-1989) | Blue and White | £300,000–£500,000 | 90% | estimate 170× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 14 | LAURENCE STEPHEN LOWRY, R.A. (1887-1976) | Bourton-on-the-Water | £400,000–£600,000 | 94% | artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=950 | sold |
| 15 | SIR WINSTON SPENCER CHURCHILL, O.M., R.A. (1874-1965) | By Lake Lugano | £350,000–£550,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 16 | SIR STANLEY SPENCER, R.A. (1891-1959) | The Meeting | £1,200,000–£1,800,000 | 86% | estimate 327× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 17 | Lucian Freud | Head of a Woman | £150,000–£200,000 | 91% | estimate 15× the artist's median hammer | sold |
| 18 | Euan Uglow | Nude with Lake Lugano | £200,000–£300,000 | 87% | estimate 33× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 19 | Allen Jones | Tree | £200,000–£300,000 | 84% | estimate 257× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 20 | DAVID HOCKNEY, O.M., C.H., R.A. (B. 1937) | Man in an Expensive Coat | £200,000–£300,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 21 | C.h. Bridget Riley | Intervals 9 | £500,000–£700,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 22 | Dame Barbara Hepworth | Figure (Chûn) | £500,000–£800,000 | 93% | artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=117 | sold |
| 23 | Ben Nicholson O.m. | Le Petit Provençal | £250,000–£350,000 | 88% | estimate 86× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 24 | SIR WINSTON SPENCER CHURCHILL, O.M., R.A. (1874-1965) | Coastal Scene in the South of France, with a Cactus | £300,000–£500,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 25 | Sir William Nicholson | Scabious and a Jug | £250,000–£350,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 26 | Roderic O'conor | Apples and Pear | £120,000–£180,000 | 89% | artist clears 63% at panel houses, n=47 | sold |
| 27 | Ivon Hitchens | Balcony with Flowers | £100,000–£150,000 | 93% | artist clears 81% at panel houses, n=164 | sold |
| 28 | Dame Elizabeth Frink | Seated Man II | £400,000–£600,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 29 | LAURENCE STEPHEN LOWRY, R.A. (1887-1976) | Industrial Landscape | £250,000–£350,000 | 94% | artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=950 | sold |
| 30 | Leon Kossoff | Nude on a Red Bed, Summer | £350,000–£550,000 | 90% | estimate 6.6× the artist's median hammer | unsold or withdrawn |
| 31 | Dame Barbara Hepworth | Torso II (Torcello) | £150,000–£250,000 | 93% | artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=117 | sold |
| 32 | WILLIAM SCOTT, R.A. (1913-1989) | Painting | £180,000–£250,000 | 90% | estimate 92× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | unsold or withdrawn |
| 33 | LYNN CHADWICK, R.A. (1914-2003) | Maquette Jubilee II | £280,000–£400,000 | 92% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=453 | unsold or withdrawn |
Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.
Method and citation
- What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
- The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
- Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
- Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
- Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Christie's, Modern British and Irish Art Evening Sale, 22 October 2025", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/14240. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.
Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.