Retrospective · Christie's scored
20th/21st Century: London Evening Sale
Christie's, London · 15 October 2025 · sale page ↗. Retrospective — scored after the sale on the results as recorded; lots withdrawn before the sale are not in the record; the model that scored it was trained on data through 2025-09-15, before this sale.
Result scored 2026-09-16 · final
Forecast 91% (range 83–100%). Result 92%: 55 of 60 scored lots sold, 5 unsold or withdrawn. Inside the range, 0 pts above the forecast.
Ten lowest-scored lots: 0 of 10 unsold vs 5 of 50 others (the model expected about 1 of the ten unsold).
Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →
91% range 83–100%expected sell-through by lotof the 60 lots with a printed estimate
91%by low-estimate valueof $116M low estimate (USD; sale currency GBP)
55 50–60expected soldof 60 scored lots
1unscoredno printed estimate
2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots
Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.
Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 60 scored lots
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate | Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 49 | Marc Chagall | Les fiancés à l'ange rouge | £900,000–£1,200,000 | 87% | sold |
| 13 | Hurvin Anderson | Lower Lake | £1,500,000–£2,000,000 | 88% | sold |
| 32 | Marc Chagall | Les fleurs de St Jean Cap-Ferrat ou L'arbre en fleur | £1,200,000–£1,800,000 | 88% | sold |
| 51 | Marc Chagall | L’Accordéoniste dans le bec ou Ciel d’hiver | £1,200,000–£1,800,000 | 88% | sold |
| 33 | Maurice Denis | Avril ou Les anémones | £600,000–£900,000 | 88% | sold |
| 62 | Alexander Archipenko | Group (Feminine Solitude) | £450,000–£650,000 | 88% | sold |
| 56 | Robert Indiana | ONE Through ZERO (The Ten Numbers) | £700,000–£1,000,000 | 88% | sold |
| 21 | Suzanne Valadon | Deux nus ou Le bain | £600,000–£900,000 | 89% | sold |
| 38 | Paul Cézanne | Maison de Bellevue et pigeonnier | £4,000,000–£6,000,000 | 89% | sold |
| 50 | Paul Cézanne | Paysage | £300,000–£500,000 | 89% | sold |
In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.
By estimate band low estimate in USD
| Band | Lots | Expected | Low estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| $15k–50k | 1 | 91% | $20K |
| $50k+ | 59 | 91% | $116M |
Context evening sales at Christie's, trailing year
Over the year before the sale (2024-10-15 to 2025-10-14), Christie's sold 93% of the 517 lots with a recorded outcome in its 14 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.
Every scored lot 60 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most
Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 90%, n=61,982 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · October sales clear 72%, n=457,310 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate GBP | Probability | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Domenico Gnoli | Bouton n. 2 (Button n. 2) | £500,000–£700,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 2 | René Magritte | La voix du sang (Blood will tell) | £350,000–£550,000 | 94% | artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=342 | sold |
| 3 | Pablo Picasso | Chevalier, pages et moine | £1,500,000–£2,500,000 | 93% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=9,299 | sold |
| 4 | ESBEN WEILE KJÆR (B. 1992) | Aske and Johan upside down kissing in Power Play at Kunstforeningen GL STRAND | £15,000–£20,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 5 | Hernan Bas | Well Aged | £40,000–£60,000 | 93% | artist clears 83% at panel houses, n=139 | sold |
| 6 | Jean-Michel Basquiat | Untitled | £300,000–£500,000 | 93% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=407 | sold |
| 7 | Peter Doig | Ski Jacket | £6,000,000–£8,000,000 | 91% | estimate 3,392× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 8 | Peter Doig | Country Rock | £7,000,000–£10,000,000 | 91% | estimate 4,118× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 9 | Chris Ofili | Blossom | £1,000,000–£1,500,000 | 89% | estimate 609× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 10 | Peter Doig | Yara | £120,000–£180,000 | 91% | estimate 73× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 11 | Karin Mamma Andersson | Hon (She) | £150,000–£200,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 12 | Peter Doig | Concrete Cabin | £450,000–£650,000 | 91% | estimate 266× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 13 | Hurvin Anderson | Lower Lake | £1,500,000–£2,000,000 | 88% | estimate 121× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 14 | Paul Signac | L’Arc-en-ciel (Venise) | £4,000,000–£6,000,000 | 93% | artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=250 | sold |
| 15 | Gerhard Richter | Tulpen (Tulips) | £3,000,000–£5,000,000 | 93% | artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,129 | sold |
| 16 | Lucian Freud | Woman with a Tulip | £3,000,000–£5,000,000 | 90% | estimate 333× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 17 | Lucian Freud | Self-portrait Fragment | £8,000,000–£12,000,000 | 90% | estimate 833× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 18 | Lucian Freud | Sleeping Head | £2,000,000–£3,000,000 | 90% | estimate 208× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 19 | Egon Schiele | Zwei Frauenakte , liegend und kniend (Die Freundinnen ) | £500,000–£800,000 | 91% | estimate 67× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 20 | Paula Rego | Dancing Ostriches from Walt Disney's 'Fantasia' | £3,000,000–£5,000,000 | 91% | estimate 3,895× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 21 | Suzanne Valadon | Deux nus ou Le bain | £600,000–£900,000 | 89% | estimate 33× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 22 | Pablo Picasso | Les Courses | £3,000,000–£5,000,000 | 93% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=9,299 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 23 | Pablo Picasso | Femme de profil dans un fauteuil (III) | £2,500,000–£3,500,000 | 92% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=9,299 | sold |
| 24 | Yoshitomo Nara | Haze Days | £6,500,000–£8,500,000 | 92% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=996 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 25 | Louise Bourgeois | Untitled | £1,200,000–£1,800,000 | 93% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=444 | sold |
| 26 | Lynette Yiadom-boakye | The Trappings | £400,000–£600,000 | 95% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=64 | sold |
| 27 | George Condo | The Banker's Wife | £800,000–£1,200,000 | 92% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=740 | sold |
| 28 | Anthony Gormley | Domain I | £300,000–£500,000 | 94% | artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=256 | sold |
| 29 | Sarah Lucas | Nud Cycladic 15 | £90,000–£120,000 | 93% | artist clears 78% at panel houses, n=92 | sold |
| 30 | Damien Hirst | Never Mind | £600,000–£900,000 | 91% | estimate 199× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 31 | Franz West | Blue Luck | £300,000–£500,000 | 91% | estimate 55× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 32 | Marc Chagall | Les fleurs de St Jean Cap-Ferrat ou L'arbre en fleur | £1,200,000–£1,800,000 | 88% | estimate 543× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 33 | Maurice Denis | Avril ou Les anémones | £600,000–£900,000 | 88% | estimate 55× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 34 | Alfred Sisley | La prairie | £500,000–£800,000 | 94% | artist clears 82% at panel houses, n=89 | sold |
| 35 | Claude Monet | Printemps, saules | £1,800,000–£2,500,000 | 96% | artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=157 | sold |
| 36 | Alfred Sisley | Le pont de Moret-sur-Loing en été | £1,500,000–£2,500,000 | 93% | artist clears 82% at panel houses, n=89 | sold |
| 37 | Paul Signac | Marseille. Le vieux port | £2,000,000–£3,000,000 | 93% | artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=250 | sold |
| 38 | Paul Cézanne | Maison de Bellevue et pigeonnier | £4,000,000–£6,000,000 | 89% | estimate 995× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 39 | Pablo Picasso | La colline de la Californie | £3,000,000–£5,000,000 | 93% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=9,299 | sold |
| 40 | Sean Scully | Music | £500,000–£700,000 | 91% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=322 | sold |
| 41 | Frank Auerbach | Reclining Figure | £500,000–£700,000 | 91% | estimate 35× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 42 | Joe Bradley | Untitled | £250,000–£350,000 | 92% | artist clears 73% at panel houses, n=102 | sold |
| 43 | Mark Grotjahn | Untitled (Dropping Off and Falling Away Red and T Face 43.22) | £1,200,000–£1,800,000 | 92% | artist clears 82% at panel houses, n=152 | sold |
| 44 | Jacqueline Humphries | Untitled | £200,000–£300,000 | 94% | artist clears 80% at panel houses, n=53 | sold |
| 45 | Laura Owens | Untitled | £400,000–£600,000 | 95% | artist clears 83% at panel houses, n=74 | sold |
| 47 | Annie Morris | Bronze Stack 9, Copper Blue | £100,000–£150,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 | sold |
| 48 | Fernand Léger | Nature morte | £450,000–£650,000 | 89% | estimate 73× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 49 | Marc Chagall | Les fiancés à l'ange rouge | £900,000–£1,200,000 | 87% | estimate 380× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 50 | Paul Cézanne | Paysage | £300,000–£500,000 | 89% | estimate 80× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 51 | Marc Chagall | L’Accordéoniste dans le bec ou Ciel d’hiver | £1,200,000–£1,800,000 | 88% | estimate 543× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 52 | Franz Marc | Fabeltiere I (Tierkomposition I) | £2,200,000–£3,200,000 | 92% | artist clears 73% at panel houses, n=46 | sold |
| 53 | Alexej Von Jawlensky | Jünglingsportrait | £1,200,000–£1,800,000 | 93% | artist clears 76% at panel houses, n=86 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 54 | Alex Katz | Kym 2 | £600,000–£800,000 | 91% | estimate 170× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 55 | Andy Warhol | Mao | £600,000–£800,000 | 91% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=5,598 | sold |
| 56 | Robert Indiana | ONE Through ZERO (The Ten Numbers) | £700,000–£1,000,000 | 88% | estimate 284× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 57 | Gerhard Richter | Grau (Grey) | £600,000–£800,000 | 93% | artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,129 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 58 | Robert Mangold | Four Color Frame Painting #16 | £250,000–£350,000 | 90% | estimate 126× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 59 | Blinky Palermo | Untitled | £800,000–£1,200,000 | 92% | artist clears 75% at panel houses, n=69 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 60 | René Magritte | La veillée (The Vigil) | £300,000–£500,000 | 94% | artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=342 | sold |
| 62 | Alexander Archipenko | Group (Feminine Solitude) | £450,000–£650,000 | 88% | estimate 147× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.
Not in the forecast 1 lot carry no printed estimate
1 lot carries no printed estimate (estimate on request) and is not in the forecast. That is common at the top of an evening sale, so the value figure above understates the catalog.
| Lot | Artist | Work |
|---|---|---|
| 46 | Nicolas Party | Tree Trunks |
Method and citation
- What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
- The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
- Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
- Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
- Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Christie's, 20th/21st Century: London Evening Sale, 15 October 2025", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/14255. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.
Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.