Retrospective · Lempertz scored
Evening Sale Modern And Contemporary Art
Lempertz · 5 June 2026 · sale page ↗. Retrospective — scored after the sale on the results as recorded; lots withdrawn before the sale are not in the record; the model that scored it was trained on data through 2025-09-15, before this sale.
Result scored 2026-09-16 · final
Forecast 75% (range 61–89%). Result 69%: 37 of 54 scored lots sold, 17 unsold or withdrawn. Inside the range, 6 pts below the forecast.
Ten lowest-scored lots: 6 of 10 unsold vs 11 of 44 others (the model expected about 3 of the ten unsold).
Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →
75% range 61–89%expected sell-through by lotof the 54 lots with a printed estimate
74%by low-estimate valueof $7.0M low estimate (USD; sale currency EUR)
40 33–48expected soldof 54 scored lots
0unscoredno printed estimate
2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots
Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.
Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 54 scored lots
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate | Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 19 | Erich Heckel | Einfuhr in die Scheune | €300,000–€400,000 | 64% | unsold or withdrawn |
| 34 | Antonio Calderara | Spazio, colore, luce | €50,000–€60,000 | 64% | unsold or withdrawn |
| 25 | Hans Arp | Architektonische Skulptur (Sculpture architectonique) | €250,000–€300,000 | 65% | unsold or withdrawn |
| 42 | Hermann Nitsch | Reliktinstallation 6-Tage-Spiel: Schüttbild und Kreuztragbahre | €80,000–€100,000 | 68% | unsold or withdrawn |
| 46 | Bernard Buffet | Quatre Zinnias | €60,000–€70,000 | 68% | sold |
| 33 | Max Ernst | L'Ecclésiaste (Opus Dei) | €100,000–€150,000 | 68% | unsold or withdrawn |
| 6 | Raoul Dufy | L’Allée d’Arbres | €100,000–€150,000 | 69% | sold |
| 29 | Karl Hofer | Mädchen mit Kürbissen | €120,000–€140,000 | 70% | sold |
| 52 | Emil Nolde | Männerbildnis (Selbstbildnis) | €50,000–€60,000 | 70% | unsold or withdrawn |
| 44 | Hermann Max Pechstein | Blühender Apfelbaum | €70,000–€90,000 | 71% | sold |
In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.
By estimate band low estimate in USD
| Band | Lots | Expected | Low estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| $15k–50k | 13 | 77% | $518K |
| $50k+ | 41 | 74% | $6.5M |
Context evening sales at Lempertz, trailing year
No evening sale at Lempertz with recorded outcomes falls inside the reporting panel in the year before the sale, so there is no trailing record to set beside the forecast.
Every scored lot 54 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most
Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 73%, n=35,901 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · June sales clear 71%, n=512,119 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate EUR | Probability | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Emil Nolde | Magnolien und Fuchsien | €40,000–€60,000 | 72% | artist clears 67% at panel houses, n=291 | sold |
| 2 | Imi Knoebel | Portrait | €35,000–€45,000 | 79% | artist clears 82% at panel houses, n=275 | sold |
| 3 | Imi Knoebel | Portrait | €35,000–€45,000 | 79% | artist clears 82% at panel houses, n=275 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 4 | Gustave Loiseau | Le Quai de Beynac | €80,000–€120,000 | 81% | artist clears 83% at panel houses, n=221 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 5 | Henri Eugène Augustin Le Sidaner | Les petites barques, automne, Quimper | €70,000–€90,000 | 75% | sits at the house rate of 73%, n=35,901 | sold |
| 6 | Raoul Dufy | L’Allée d’Arbres | €100,000–€150,000 | 69% | estimate 9.1× the artist's median hammer | sold |
| 7 | Marwan | Untitled | €90,000–€120,000 | 75% | sits at the house rate of 73%, n=35,901 | sold |
| 8 | Gustave Van De Woestyne | Mal aux Dents (Portrait of a sick man) | €60,000–€80,000 | 75% | sits at the house rate of 73%, n=35,901 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 9 | Piet Mondrian | De Oostzijdse molen aan t' Gein bij Abcoude | €40,000–€45,000 | 80% | artist clears 83% at panel houses, n=47 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 10 | Eduardo Chillida | Óxido G-196 | €70,000–€90,000 | 74% | estimate 54× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 11 | Josef Albers | Study to homage to the square: Small and large Dark against light Brown | €250,000–€350,000 | 81% | artist clears 90% at panel houses, n=709 | sold |
| 12 | Marianne Von Werefkin | Lago Maggiore | €150,000–€180,000 | 75% | sits at the house rate of 73%, n=35,901 | sold |
| 13 | Oskar Schlemmer | Raum mit sieben Figuren | €150,000–€180,000 | 76% | artist clears 74% at panel houses, n=42 | sold |
| 14 | Zdeněk Sýkora | Linie Nr.145 | €200,000–€300,000 | 76% | sits at the house rate of 73%, n=35,901 | sold |
| 15 | Georg Baselitz | Borcke | €400,000–€450,000 | 73% | estimate 130× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 16 | Per Kirkeby | Flußlandschaft | €50,000–€70,000 | 80% | artist clears 78% at panel houses, n=83 | sold |
| 18 | Paula Modersohn-becker | Drei sitzende Kinder in Landschaft, hinten ein Reiter | €160,000–€180,000 | 74% | sits at the house rate of 73%, n=35,901 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 19 | Erich Heckel | Einfuhr in die Scheune | €300,000–€400,000 | 64% | estimate 107× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | unsold or withdrawn |
| 20 | Imi Knoebel | Triller E | €60,000–€80,000 | 78% | artist clears 82% at panel houses, n=275 | sold |
| 21 | Imi Knoebel | Untitled | €70,000–€90,000 | 77% | artist clears 82% at panel houses, n=275 | sold |
| 22 | Yoshitomo Nara | Bunny in blue | €350,000–€450,000 | 77% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=996 | sold |
| 23 | Cosima Von Bonin | Dandy Doc (The Apprentice # 5) | €30,000–€50,000 | 76% | sits at the house rate of 73%, n=35,901 | sold |
| 24 | Cosima Von Bonin | Doc Daffy | €20,000–€30,000 | 76% | sits at the house rate of 73%, n=35,901 | sold |
| 25 | Hans Arp | Architektonische Skulptur (Sculpture architectonique) | €250,000–€300,000 | 65% | estimate 302× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | unsold or withdrawn |
| 26 | Wilhelm Lehmbruck | Frauenbüste (Büste Frau L.) | €500,000–€700,000 | 75% | sits at the house rate of 73%, n=35,901 | sold |
| 27 | Wilhelm Lehmbruck | Rückblickende | €40,000 | 74% | sits at the house rate of 73%, n=35,901 | sold |
| 28 | Gabriele Münter | Vor der Kirche | €140,000–€160,000 | 79% | artist clears 78% at panel houses, n=42 | sold |
| 29 | Karl Hofer | Mädchen mit Kürbissen | €120,000–€140,000 | 70% | estimate 6.1× the artist's median hammer | sold |
| 30 | Pierre-auguste Renoir | Coco mangeant sa soupe | €500,000–€600,000 | 73% | estimate 256× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | unsold or withdrawn |
| 31 | Karl Hofer | Mädchen sich kämmend | €80,000–€120,000 | 72% | estimate 4.7× the artist's median hammer | unsold or withdrawn |
| 32 | Sigmar Polke | Untitled | €100,000–€150,000 | 76% | artist clears 76% at panel houses, n=289 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 33 | Max Ernst | L'Ecclésiaste (Opus Dei) | €100,000–€150,000 | 68% | estimate 77× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | unsold or withdrawn |
| 34 | Antonio Calderara | Spazio, colore, luce | €50,000–€60,000 | 64% | estimate 213× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | unsold or withdrawn |
| 35 | Gerhard Richter | Untitled | €120,000–€180,000 | 83% | artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,129 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 36 | Pierre Soulages | Untitled | €180,000–€220,000 | 74% | estimate 31× the artist's median hammer | sold |
| 37 | Gotthard Graubner | Nebel Nabel | €60,000–€70,000 | 75% | sits at the house rate of 73%, n=35,901 | sold |
| 38 | Günther Uecker | Splitter | €100,000–€150,000 | 83% | artist clears 82% at panel houses, n=160 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 39 | Franz Radziwill | Bauerndorf. Verso: Stehender Akt mit Hühnern | €70,000–€90,000 | 75% | sits at the house rate of 73%, n=35,901 | sold |
| 40 | Franz Radziwill | Der Winter ist schön | €50,000–€70,000 | 75% | sits at the house rate of 73%, n=35,901 | sold |
| 41 | Maurice Utrillo | Église de Murato, Corse | €40,000–€45,000 | 78% | artist clears 77% at panel houses, n=343 | sold |
| 42 | Hermann Nitsch | Reliktinstallation 6-Tage-Spiel: Schüttbild und Kreuztragbahre | €80,000–€100,000 | 68% | estimate 12× the artist's median hammer | unsold or withdrawn |
| 43 | Ernst Barlach | Der Zweifler | €30,000–€40,000 | 75% | artist clears 71% at panel houses, n=58 | sold |
| 44 | Hermann Max Pechstein | Blühender Apfelbaum | €70,000–€90,000 | 71% | artist clears 67% at panel houses, n=62 | sold |
| 45 | Gabriele Münter | Blumenstillleben auf schwarzem Grund | €50,000–€70,000 | 80% | artist clears 78% at panel houses, n=42 | sold |
| 46 | Bernard Buffet | Quatre Zinnias | €60,000–€70,000 | 68% | estimate 43× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 47 | Richard Paul Lohse | Acht systematische Farbreihen 1955/1967 | €50,000–€70,000 | 75% | sits at the house rate of 73%, n=35,901 | sold |
| 48 | Heinz Mack | Zwischen Tag und Traum | €60,000–€80,000 | 75% | artist clears 73% at panel houses, n=111 | sold |
| 49 | Ghada Amer | Untitled (The Garden of Eden of Reza) | €50,000–€70,000 | 76% | artist clears 73% at panel houses, n=40 | sold |
| 50 | Olafur Eliasson | The Island Series | €30,000–€40,000 | 74% | estimate 4.5× the artist's median hammer | sold |
| 51 | Gerhard Marcks | Liegende | €35,000–€45,000 | 81% | artist clears 79% at panel houses, n=77 | sold |
| 52 | Emil Nolde | Männerbildnis (Selbstbildnis) | €50,000–€60,000 | 70% | artist clears 67% at panel houses, n=291 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 53 | Carlos Cruz-diez | Physichromie No. 548 | €40,000–€60,000 | 77% | artist clears 81% at panel houses, n=203 | sold |
| 54 | Franz West | Passstück | €30,000–€50,000 | 81% | artist clears 84% at panel houses, n=235 | sold |
| 55 | Fritz Winter | Nach unten | €50,000–€70,000 | 75% | artist clears 71% at panel houses, n=52 | unsold or withdrawn |
Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.
Method and citation
- What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
- The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
- Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
- Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
- Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Lempertz, Evening Sale Modern And Contemporary Art, 5 June 2026", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/1742. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.
Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.