Retrospective · Sotheby's scored
Pauline Karpidas: The London Collection Evening Auction
Sotheby's, London · 17 September 2025 · sale page ↗. Retrospective — scored after the sale on the results as recorded; lots withdrawn before the sale are not in the record; the model that scored it was trained on data through 2025-09-15, before this sale.
Result scored 2026-09-16 · final
Forecast 90% (range 80–100%). Result 100%: 55 of 55 scored lots sold, 0 unsold or withdrawn. Outside the range, 10 pts above the forecast.
Ten lowest-scored lots: 0 of 10 unsold vs 0 of 45 others (the model expected about 2 of the ten unsold).
Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →
90% range 80–100%expected sell-through by lotof the 55 lots with a printed estimate
90%by low-estimate valueof $53M low estimate (USD; sale currency GBP)
49 44–55expected soldof 55 scored lots
0unscoredno printed estimate
2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots
Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.
Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 55 scored lots
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate | Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 28 | André Masson | La Femme paralytique | £350,000–£450,000 | 81% | sold |
| 34 | Giorgio De Chirico | Nudo | £600,000–£800,000 | 82% | sold |
| 22 | Giorgio De Chirico | La Guerra (The War) | £1,000,000–£1,500,000 | 83% | sold |
| 41 | Jacques Lipchitz | La Femme au serpent | £800,000–£1,200,000 | 83% | sold |
| 42 | Óscar Domínguez | Exacte sensibilité | £600,000–£800,000 | 84% | sold |
| 16 | Óscar Domínguez | Le Piano | £1,000,000–£1,500,000 | 84% | sold |
| 7 | Yves Tanguy | Titre inconnu | £1,000,000–£1,500,000 | 84% | sold |
| 23 | Salvador Dalí | Portrait de Gala Galarina | £350,000–£450,000 | 85% | sold |
| 32 | Salvador Dalí | Cannibalisme des objets, tête de femme avec soulier | £350,000–£450,000 | 85% | sold |
| 25 | Salvador Dalí | Messager dans un paysage Palladien | £200,000–£300,000 | 86% | sold |
In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.
By estimate band low estimate in USD
| Band | Lots | Expected | Low estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| $50k+ | 55 | 90% | $53M |
Context evening sales at Sotheby's, trailing year
Over the year before the sale (2024-09-17 to 2025-09-16), Sotheby's sold 86% of the 484 lots with a recorded outcome in its 14 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.
Every scored lot 55 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most
Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 88%, n=534,208 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · September sales clear 72%, n=393,154 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate GBP | Probability | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Hannah Höch | Priesterin | £70,000–£100,000 | 90% | sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208 | sold |
| 2 | Hans Bellmer | Mille filles | £100,000–£150,000 | 86% | estimate 45× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 3 | Dorothea Tanning | Katchina and Her Soul | £300,000–£500,000 | 88% | estimate 121× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 4 | René Magritte | La Race blanche | £250,000–£350,000 | 93% | artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=342 | sold |
| 5 | René Magritte | La Race blanche | £1,000,000–£1,500,000 | 93% | artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=342 | sold |
| 6 | René Magritte | Tête | £300,000–£500,000 | 93% | artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=342 | sold |
| 7 | Yves Tanguy | Titre inconnu | £1,000,000–£1,500,000 | 84% | estimate 139× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 8 | Max Ernst | Jeune homme au cœur battant or Sateur de mur or Oiseau vole | £800,000–£1,200,000 | 86% | estimate 718× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 9 | Claude Lalanne | Unique Choupatte | £300,000–£400,000 | 95% | artist clears 93% at panel houses, n=813 | sold |
| 10 | Diego Giacometti | Berceau Low Table, Première Version | £180,000–£250,000 | 96% | artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=286 | sold |
| 11 | Andy Warhol | The Scream (After Munch) | £2,000,000–£3,000,000 | 90% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=5,598 | sold |
| 12 | Claude Lalanne | Unique Structure Végétale Mirror and Wall Light | £350,000–£450,000 | 95% | artist clears 93% at panel houses, n=813 | sold |
| 13 | François-xavier Lalanne | Console Végétale | £180,000–£250,000 | 96% | artist clears 93% at panel houses, n=819 | sold |
| 14 | François-xavier Lalanne | Console Végétale | £180,000–£250,000 | 96% | artist clears 93% at panel houses, n=819 | sold |
| 15 | Jeff Koons | Poodle | £1,000,000–£1,500,000 | 87% | estimate 310× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 16 | Óscar Domínguez | Le Piano | £1,000,000–£1,500,000 | 84% | estimate 69× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 17 | Francis Picabia | Deux amies | £2,200,000–£2,800,000 | 88% | estimate 138× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 18 | Victor Brauner | Nous sommes trahis | £350,000–£450,000 | 88% | estimate 88× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 19 | René Magritte | La Statue volante | £9,000,000–£12,000,000 | 93% | artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=342 | sold |
| 20 | Claude Lalanne | Caroline Enceinte | £220,000–£280,000 | 95% | artist clears 93% at panel houses, n=813 | sold |
| 21 | Max Ernst | Portrait de Guillaume Apollinaire | £40,000–£60,000 | 86% | estimate 36× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 22 | Giorgio De Chirico | La Guerra (The War) | £1,000,000–£1,500,000 | 83% | estimate 1,698× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 23 | Salvador Dalí | Portrait de Gala Galarina | £350,000–£450,000 | 85% | estimate 341× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 24 | Max Ernst | Ballon-Cœur | £300,000–£500,000 | 86% | estimate 287× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 25 | Salvador Dalí | Messager dans un paysage Palladien | £200,000–£300,000 | 86% | estimate 213× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 26 | René Magritte | Les Menottes de cuivre | £300,000–£500,000 | 93% | artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=342 | sold |
| 27 | Andy Warhol | Madonna and Self-Portrait with Skeleton's Arm (After Munch) | £1,500,000–£2,000,000 | 90% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=5,598 | sold |
| 28 | André Masson | La Femme paralytique | £350,000–£450,000 | 81% | estimate 715× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 29 | Dorothea Tanning | Daughters | £350,000–£450,000 | 87% | estimate 121× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 30 | Max Ernst | La Plus belle | £800,000–£1,200,000 | 86% | estimate 718× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 31 | Leonora Carrington | The Hour of the Angelus | £600,000–£800,000 | 90% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=98 | sold |
| 32 | Salvador Dalí | Cannibalisme des objets, tête de femme avec soulier | £350,000–£450,000 | 85% | estimate 341× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 33 | René Magritte | Untitled (Le Sens propre) | £700,000–£1,000,000 | 93% | artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=342 | sold |
| 34 | Giorgio De Chirico | Nudo | £600,000–£800,000 | 82% | estimate 951× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 35 | Francis Picabia | Untitled (Espagnole) | £600,000–£800,000 | 88% | estimate 39× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 36 | Claude Lalanne | Unique Structure Végétale Bed | £200,000–£300,000 | 95% | artist clears 93% at panel houses, n=813 | sold |
| 37 | Claude Lalanne | Unique Entrelacs Bench | £150,000–£200,000 | 95% | artist clears 93% at panel houses, n=813 | sold |
| 38 | Pablo Picasso | Profil gauche de femme avec résille dans les cheveux | £350,000–£450,000 | 91% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=9,299 | sold |
| 39 | Pablo Picasso | Buste d'homme | £1,500,000–£2,500,000 | 91% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=9,299 | sold |
| 40 | Alberto Giacometti | Femme, épaule cassée [troisième version] | £1,500,000–£2,000,000 | 91% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=543 | sold |
| 41 | Jacques Lipchitz | La Femme au serpent | £800,000–£1,200,000 | 83% | estimate 682× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 42 | Óscar Domínguez | Exacte sensibilité | £600,000–£800,000 | 84% | estimate 39× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 43 | René Magritte | Madame Récamier de David | £500,000–£700,000 | 93% | artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=342 | sold |
| 44 | Francis Picabia | Homme et femme au bord de la mer | £800,000–£1,200,000 | 88% | estimate 55× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 45 | Claude Lalanne | Unique Table Aux Serpents | £180,000–£250,000 | 95% | artist clears 93% at panel houses, n=813 | sold |
| 46 | Claude Lalanne | Two Unique Crocodile Stools | £180,000–£250,000 | 95% | artist clears 93% at panel houses, n=813 | sold |
| 47 | Pablo Picasso | Nu et deux têtes | £350,000–£450,000 | 91% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=9,299 | sold |
| 48 | Pablo Picasso | Nu couché | £450,000–£650,000 | 91% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=9,299 | sold |
| 49 | Andy Warhol | The Poet and His Muse (After de Chirico) | £600,000–£800,000 | 90% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=5,598 | sold |
| 50 | Andy Warhol | Man Ray | £400,000–£600,000 | 90% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=5,598 | sold |
| 51 | Lucio Fontana | Concetto spaziale, Natura | £1,000,000–£1,500,000 | 91% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=649 | sold |
| 52 | Henri Laurens | Allégorie | £120,000–£180,000 | 89% | estimate 2.9× the artist's median hammer | sold |
| 53 | Jeff Koons | French Coach Couple | £500,000–£700,000 | 87% | estimate 149× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 54 | Andre Dubreuil | Unique Spectaculaire Desk | £40,000–£60,000 | 89% | estimate 13× the artist's median hammer | sold |
| 55 | Mattia Bonetti | Unique Bookcase | £50,000–£70,000 | 90% | artist clears 73% at panel houses, n=134 | sold |
Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.
Method and citation
- What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
- The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
- Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
- Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
- Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Sotheby's, Pauline Karpidas: The London Collection Evening Auction, 17 September 2025", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/26743. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.
Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.