Result scored 2026-09-16 · final

Forecast 91% (range 80–100%). Result 92%: 37 of 40 scored lots sold, 3 unsold or withdrawn. Inside the range, 2 pts above the forecast.

Ten lowest-scored lots: 0 of 10 unsold vs 3 of 30 others (the model expected about 1 of the ten unsold).

Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →

91% range 80–100%expected sell-through by lotof the 40 lots with a printed estimate

91%by low-estimate valueof $33M low estimate (USD; sale currency HKD)

36 32–40expected soldof 40 scored lots

0unscoredno printed estimate

2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots

Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.

Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 40 scored lots

Lot	Artist	Work	Estimate	Probability	Result
38	Zhang Xiaogang	Bloodline - Big Family No. 7: Siblings 血緣 - 大家庭7號：姐妹	HK$4,000,000–HK$6,000,000	85%	sold
27	Marc Chagall	Les fleurs de l'amour ou Les iris 愛情之花或鳶尾花	HK$9,500,000–HK$14,000,000	86%	sold
41	Bernard Buffet	Zinnias, vase à anses 花瓶中的百日菊	HK$1,600,000–HK$2,600,000	87%	sold
25	Chu Teh-chun	Mouvement ascendant 上升移動	HK$4,000,000–HK$6,000,000	87%	sold
42	Chu Teh-chun	No. 36 36號構圖	HK$3,000,000–HK$5,000,000	88%	sold
22	Takeo Yamaguchi	Ho (Crawl) 匍	HK$6,000,000–HK$8,000,000	90%	sold
1	—	Li Hei Di 李黑地 \| There Was One Summer Returning Over and Over; There Was One Dawn I Grew Old Watching 夏天總是去而復返；我注視著晨光慢慢老去	HK$700,000–HK$1,000,000	90%	sold
32	Liang Yuanwei	Piece of Life 17 生活的片斷 17	HK$4,000,000–HK$6,000,000	90%	sold
14	Wayne Thiebaud	Cantaloupe 蜜瓜	HK$7,000,000–HK$10,000,000	90%	sold
4	Hilary Pecis	Coffee Table 咖啡桌	HK$2,400,000–HK$4,000,000	90%	sold

In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.

By estimate band low estimate in USD

Band	Lots	Expected	Low estimate
$50k+	40	91%	$33M

Context evening sales at Sotheby's, trailing year

Over the year before the sale (2024-09-28 to 2025-09-27), Sotheby's sold 87% of the 539 lots with a recorded outcome in its 15 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.

Every scored lot 40 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most

Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 88%, n=534,208 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · September sales clear 72%, n=393,154 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.

Lot	Artist	Work	Estimate HKD	Probability	Why	Result
1	—	Li Hei Di 李黑地 \| There Was One Summer Returning Over and Over; There Was One Dawn I Grew Old Watching 夏天總是去而復返；我注視著晨光慢慢老去	HK$700,000–HK$1,000,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
2	—	Lalan 謝景蘭 \| The Earth is Far Away 遙遠的地球	HK$1,400,000–HK$2,400,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
3	Christine Ay Tjoe	Large Space of Shoots #1 遍地皆苗 1 號	HK$600,000–HK$800,000	95%	artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=61	sold
4	Hilary Pecis	Coffee Table 咖啡桌	HK$2,400,000–HK$4,000,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
5	Matthew Wong	Into the Night 長夜行	HK$3,800,000–HK$5,500,000	95%	artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=63	sold
6	Louise Bourgeois	À Baudelaire (#5) 致波特萊爾（5號）	HK$6,200,000–HK$8,200,000	91%	artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=444	sold
7	—	The Lower Part of a Roman Marble Figure of Aphrodite, circa 2nd Century A.D. \| 羅馬大理石阿芙羅狄蒂雕像下半身，約公元 2 世紀	HK$1,200,000–HK$2,000,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
8	Roy Lichtenstein	Scholar's Rock 文人石	HK$1,000,000–HK$1,500,000	93%	artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,963	sold
9	Roy Lichtenstein	Water Lilies with Japanese Bridge 睡蓮與日式橋	HK$3,000,000–HK$5,000,000	92%	artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,963	sold
10	Roy Lichtenstein	Vista with Bridge 遠景與橋	HK$28,000,000–HK$35,000,000	92%	artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,963	sold
11	Roy Lichtenstein	Bonsai Tree (Study) 盆景樹（習作）	HK$2,000,000–HK$3,000,000	92%	artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,963	sold
12	Roy Lichtenstein	Reflections on Girl (Study) 反射系列：女孩（習作）	HK$2,000,000–HK$3,000,000	92%	artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,963	sold
13	Rashid Johnson	Untitled Escape Collage 無題逃脫拼貼	HK$3,000,000–HK$4,000,000	91%	artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=222	unsold or withdrawn
14	Wayne Thiebaud	Cantaloupe 蜜瓜	HK$7,000,000–HK$10,000,000	90%	artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=532	sold
15	Takashi Murakami	Flower Parent and Child 花朵家長與孩子	HK$8,000,000–HK$16,000,000	92%	artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=1,577	sold
16	Pablo Picasso	Buste d'homme 男子半身像	HK$15,500,000–HK$25,000,000	91%	artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=9,299	sold
17	Yoshitomo Nara	Sprout the Ambassador 芽苗小使者	HK$9,000,000–HK$15,000,000	91%	artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=996	sold
18	Yoshitomo Nara	Can't Wait 'til the Night Comes 等不及夜幕降臨	HK$65,000,000–HK$85,000,000	91%	artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=996	sold
20	Yayoi Kusama	Oil No. 19 油畫19號	HK$3,500,000–HK$7,000,000	93%	artist clears 90% at panel houses, n=1,350	sold
21	Kazuo Shiraga	Work 作品	HK$10,000,000–HK$15,000,000	91%	artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=115	sold
22	Takeo Yamaguchi	Ho (Crawl) 匍	HK$6,000,000–HK$8,000,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
23	Lee Ufan	From Winds 從風	HK$5,000,000–HK$7,000,000	91%	artist clears 81% at panel houses, n=100	sold
24	Christine Ay Tjoe	Verso of the Landscape 風景背後	HK$6,200,000–HK$12,000,000	95%	artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=61	sold
25	Chu Teh-chun	Mouvement ascendant 上升移動	HK$4,000,000–HK$6,000,000	87%	estimate 125× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
26	Zao Wou-ki	12.02.2004 - Vague rouge blanc bleu 12.02.2004 - 朦朧的紅白藍	HK$10,000,000–HK$15,000,000	91%	artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=690	sold
27	Marc Chagall	Les fleurs de l'amour ou Les iris 愛情之花或鳶尾花	HK$9,500,000–HK$14,000,000	86%	estimate 410× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
28	Mai Trung Thu	La calligraphie 書法	HK$2,500,000–HK$5,000,000	93%	artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=151	sold
29	Le Pho	La lecture 閱讀	HK$5,000,000–HK$8,000,000	94%	artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=458	sold
32	Liang Yuanwei	Piece of Life 17 生活的片斷 17	HK$4,000,000–HK$6,000,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
33	Takashi Murakami	Flower Sparkles! 繽紛花朵！	HK$3,000,000–HK$5,000,000	91%	artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=1,577	sold
34	Huang Yuxing	CBD During Special Times 特殊時期下的CBD	HK$2,000,000–HK$3,000,000	94%	artist clears 83% at panel houses, n=71	unsold or withdrawn
35	Liu Ye	Xiao Hong and Plum Blossom 小紅與梅花	HK$6,000,000–HK$8,000,000	91%	artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=146	sold
36	Zhang Enli	Smoker (2) 吸煙者（2）	HK$2,400,000–HK$4,000,000	94%	artist clears 84% at panel houses, n=65	sold
38	Zhang Xiaogang	Bloodline - Big Family No. 7: Siblings 血緣 - 大家庭7號：姐妹	HK$4,000,000–HK$6,000,000	85%	estimate 206× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
39	Affandi	Man with the fighting cock 男子與鬥雞	HK$2,500,000–HK$4,500,000	91%	artist clears 80% at panel houses, n=87	unsold or withdrawn
40	Zenzaburo Kojima	Chrysanthemum 菊	HK$1,000,000–HK$2,000,000	91%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
41	Bernard Buffet	Zinnias, vase à anses 花瓶中的百日菊	HK$1,600,000–HK$2,600,000	87%	estimate 155× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
42	Chu Teh-chun	No. 36 36號構圖	HK$3,000,000–HK$5,000,000	88%	estimate 100× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
43	Fernando Zóbel	Cuenca 昆卡	HK$1,300,000–HK$3,000,000	91%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
44	Banksy	Vest 防彈背心	HK$2,200,000–HK$3,200,000	92%	artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,424	sold

Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.

Method and citation

What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Sotheby's, Modern & Contemporary Evening Auction, 28 September 2025", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/26769. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.

Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.