Result scored 2026-09-16 · final

Forecast 90% (range 76–100%). Result 89%: 24 of 27 scored lots sold, 3 unsold or withdrawn. Inside the range, 1 pts below the forecast.

Ten lowest-scored lots: 1 of 10 unsold vs 2 of 17 others (the model expected about 1 of the ten unsold).

Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →

90% range 76–100%expected sell-through by lotof the 27 lots with a printed estimate

90%by low-estimate valueof $45M low estimate (USD; sale currency GBP)

24 20–27expected soldof 27 scored lots

0unscoredno printed estimate

2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots

Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.

Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 27 scored lots

Lot	Artist	Work	Estimate	Probability	Result
5	El Anatsui	Hesitant Rivers	£800,000–£1,200,000	83%	sold
8	Hurvin Anderson	Marlene's Big Sister	£500,000–£700,000	85%	unsold or withdrawn
22	Gerald Laing	Dragster III	£300,000–£500,000	87%	sold
20	Paula Rego	Snow White Playing with her Father's Trophies	£800,000–£1,200,000	88%	sold
17	Yves Klein	Untitled Fire Colour Painting (FC 28)	£1,800,000–£2,500,000	89%	sold
2	Hernan Bas	Rotten Apple	£250,000–£350,000	89%	sold
15	Georg Baselitz	Kullervos Füße	£800,000–£1,200,000	89%	sold
12	Auguste Rodin	Pierre de Wiessant, vêtu, Grand Modèle	£600,000–£900,000	89%	sold
13	Auguste Rodin	Jean de Fiennes, vêtu, Grand Modèle	£600,000–£900,000	89%	sold
9	Jenny Saville	Muse on Stool (Study)	£350,000–£450,000	89%	sold

In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.

By estimate band low estimate in USD

Band	Lots	Expected	Low estimate
$15k–50k	2	89%	$81K
$50k+	25	90%	$45M

Context evening sales at Sotheby's, trailing year

Over the year before the sale (2024-10-16 to 2025-10-15), Sotheby's sold 88% of the 557 lots with a recorded outcome in its 15 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.

Every scored lot 27 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most

Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 88%, n=534,208 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · October sales clear 72%, n=457,310 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.

Lot	Artist	Work	Estimate GBP	Probability	Why	Result
1	Ser Serpas	Untitled	£30,000–£40,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
2	Hernan Bas	Rotten Apple	£250,000–£350,000	89%	estimate 37× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
3	—	Epitaph for fire and flower	£40,000–£60,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
4	Yu Nishimura	hearing	£30,000–£40,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
5	El Anatsui	Hesitant Rivers	£800,000–£1,200,000	83%	estimate 40× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
6	Jean-Michel Basquiat	Untitled (The Arm)	£4,500,000–£6,500,000	90%	artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=407	sold
7	Andy Warhol	Four Pink Marilyns (Reversal Series)	£3,000,000–£5,000,000	90%	artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=5,598	sold
8	Hurvin Anderson	Marlene's Big Sister	£500,000–£700,000	85%	estimate 42× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	unsold or withdrawn
9	Jenny Saville	Muse on Stool (Study)	£350,000–£450,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
10	Francis Bacon	Study for Self-Portrait	£5,000,000–£7,000,000	91%	artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=339	sold
11	Francis Bacon	Portrait of a Dwarf	£6,000,000–£9,000,000	91%	artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=339	sold
12	Auguste Rodin	Pierre de Wiessant, vêtu, Grand Modèle	£600,000–£900,000	89%	estimate 37× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
13	Auguste Rodin	Jean de Fiennes, vêtu, Grand Modèle	£600,000–£900,000	89%	estimate 37× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
14	Anselm Kiefer	Tempelhof	£600,000–£800,000	90%	artist clears 81% at panel houses, n=171	sold
15	Georg Baselitz	Kullervos Füße	£800,000–£1,200,000	89%	estimate 353× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
16	Matthew Wong	The Visit	£1,500,000–£2,000,000	95%	artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=63	sold
17	Yves Klein	Untitled Fire Colour Painting (FC 28)	£1,800,000–£2,500,000	89%	estimate 147× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
18	Lucio Fontana	Concetto spaziale, Attese	£2,000,000–£3,000,000	91%	artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=649	sold
19	Anthony Gormley	Aperture XI	£300,000–£400,000	92%	artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=256	sold
20	Paula Rego	Snow White Playing with her Father's Trophies	£800,000–£1,200,000	88%	estimate 979× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
21	Frank Auerbach	Head of Laurie Owen I	£300,000–£400,000	90%	artist clears 84% at panel houses, n=197	unsold or withdrawn
22	Gerald Laing	Dragster III	£300,000–£500,000	87%	estimate 239× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
23	Lucy Bull	9:59	£300,000–£500,000	93%	artist clears 79% at panel houses, n=48	sold
24	Thomas Schütte	Großer Geist Nr.6	£2,000,000–£3,000,000	90%	artist clears 74% at panel houses, n=104	sold
25	Neo Rauch	Gegenlicht	£400,000–£600,000	92%	artist clears 77% at panel houses, n=44	sold
26	Daniel Richter	Die Idealisten	£350,000–£450,000	92%	artist clears 79% at panel houses, n=66	unsold or withdrawn
27	Richard Serra	Elevational Weights, Vertical	£300,000–£400,000	93%	artist clears 90% at panel houses, n=323	sold

Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.

Method and citation

What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Sotheby's, Contemporary Evening Auction, 16 October 2025", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/26800. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.

Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.