Result scored 2026-09-16 · final

Forecast 89% (range 81–98%). Result 83%: 70 of 84 scored lots sold, 14 unsold or withdrawn. Inside the range, 6 pts below the forecast.

Ten lowest-scored lots: 1 of 10 unsold vs 13 of 74 others (the model expected about 1 of the ten unsold).

Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →

89% range 81–98%expected sell-through by lotof the 84 lots with a printed estimate

89%by low-estimate valueof $11M low estimate (USD; sale currency EUR)

75 68–82expected soldof 84 scored lots

0unscoredno printed estimate

2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots

Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.

Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 84 scored lots

Lot	Artist	Work	Estimate	Probability	Result
82	Sir Joshua Reynolds, P.R.A	Autoportrait en robe de docteur	€300,000–€500,000	85%	sold
54	Sir Peter Paul Rubens	Etude pour une tête de jeune garçon	€500,000–€700,000	86%	sold
84	John Singer Sargent, Ra	Portrait d'Edgar Vincent, Vicomte d'Abernon, G.C.M.G.	€200,000–€300,000	88%	sold
61	—	Tabatière en or et émail par Jean Formey, Paris, 1756-1757, les émaux par Mademoiselle Duplessis	€280,000–€350,000	89%	sold
18	—	Italie, Florence, fin du XVIIe siècle / début du XVIIIe siècle, d'après l'Antique	€70,000–€90,000	89%	sold
19	Giuseppe Vasi	Six vues de Rome	€70,000–€90,000	89%	sold
2	—	Atelier des Triomphes Romains, Italie du Nord, Ferrare, vers 1530	€15,000–€20,000	89%	sold
6	—	Entourage de Giambologna (1529 - 1608), Florence, XVIIe siècle	€60,000–€80,000	89%	sold
7	Giovanni Francesco di Niccolò di Luteri, called Dosso Dossi	Femme prenant la fuite sur un chemin boisé	€150,000–€200,000	89%	unsold or withdrawn
8	—	Massimiliano Soldani Benzi (1656 - 1740)	€60,000–€80,000	89%	sold

In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.

By estimate band low estimate in USD

Band	Lots	Expected	Low estimate
$15k–50k	19	90%	$678K
$50k+	65	89%	$10M

Context evening sales at Sotheby's, trailing year

Over the year before the sale (2024-11-05 to 2025-11-04), Sotheby's sold 88% of the 584 lots with a recorded outcome in its 16 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.

Every scored lot 84 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most

Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 88%, n=534,208 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · November sales clear 71%, n=519,833 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.

Lot	Artist	Work	Estimate EUR	Probability	Why	Result
1	—	Figure en marbre d'Aphrodite, Rome, vers le Ier siècle après J.C.	€60,000–€90,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
2	—	Atelier des Triomphes Romains, Italie du Nord, Ferrare, vers 1530	€15,000–€20,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
3	—	Simone Bianco (vers 1480/90 - après 1553) et atelier, Venise, milieu du XVIe siècle	€50,000–€70,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
4	—	Florence, première moitié du XVIIe siècle, d'après Giambologna (1529 - 1608)	€100,000–€150,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
5	—	attributed to ludovico lombardo (1507-1575), probably rome, third quarter of the 16th century, after the antique	€200,000–€300,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
6	—	Entourage de Giambologna (1529 - 1608), Florence, XVIIe siècle	€60,000–€80,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
7	Giovanni Francesco di Niccolò di Luteri, called Dosso Dossi	Femme prenant la fuite sur un chemin boisé	€150,000–€200,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	unsold or withdrawn
8	—	Massimiliano Soldani Benzi (1656 - 1740)	€60,000–€80,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
9	—	Attribué au peintre de la Décollation, lustré par Maestro Giorgio, Italie, Gubbio, vers 1524-1530	€40,000–€60,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
10	—	Atelier d'Orazio Fontana (1541-1571), Urbino, vers 1565-1571	€25,000–€40,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
11	—	Le Peintre Lu Ur (‘L’), probablement lustré dans l'atelier du Maetro Giorgio à Gubbio, Urbino, signé et datée en 1533	€30,000–€50,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
12	—	Le Peintre “Lu Ur”, Italie, Urbino, signé et daté 1533	€25,000–€40,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	unsold or withdrawn
13	—	Attribué à Benedetto Buglioni (vers 1458 - 1521)	€25,000–€35,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
14	Carlo Dolci	L'archange saint Michel	€200,000–€300,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
15	—	Italie, Rome, vers 1700, inspirés de modèles de Gianlorenzo Bernini (1598 - 1680)	€100,000–€150,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
16	—	Italie, Rome, XVIIe siècle, d’après l’Antique	€70,000–€100,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	unsold or withdrawn
17	Antonio Joli	Caprice architectural avec un palais et Alexandre sur la tombe d'Achille	€70,000–€100,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
18	—	Italie, Florence, fin du XVIIe siècle / début du XVIIIe siècle, d'après l'Antique	€70,000–€90,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
19	Giuseppe Vasi	Six vues de Rome	€70,000–€90,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
20	—	Attribué à Giovanni Zanobio Weber (actif à Florence de 1737 à 1806), Italie, fin du XVIIIe siècle, d'après l'Antique	€40,000–€60,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	unsold or withdrawn
21	—	Médaillon en micromosaïque, attribué à Giacomo Raffaelli (1753-1836), Rome, vers 1800	€20,000–€30,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
22	—	Paire de micromosaïques, attribuée à Giacomo Raffaelli (1753-1836), Rome, vers 1800	€40,000–€60,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
23	—	Giacomo et Giovanni Zoffoli (actifs du milieu à la fin du XVIIIe siècle), Rome, XVIIIe siècle, d'après l'Antique	€40,000–€60,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
24	Giuseppe Piamontini	Diane et ses chiens	€100,000–€150,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
25	—	Flandres, fin XVIIe / début XVIIIe siècle	€20,000–€30,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
26	Luca Carlevarijs	Vue d'un angle de la place Saint-Marc animée de figures en costume oriental, paysans et chiens	€50,000–€70,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
27	—	Limoges, milieu du XVIe siècle	€60,000–€80,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	unsold or withdrawn
28	Barthélemy Prieur	Orion guidé par Cédalion	€200,000–€300,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	unsold or withdrawn
29	Corneille De Lyon And Workshop	Portrait de femme en buste, portant une robe bleue et un chien	€150,000–€250,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
30	Corneille De Lyon And Workshop	Portrait de Charles de La Rochefoucauld en buste, portant un manteau noir et un chapeau à plumes	€120,000–€180,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
31	—	Attribué à Pierre Reymond (1513 - 1584), Limoges, seconde moitié du XVIe siècle	€30,000–€40,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
32	—	Tapisserie allégorique d'époque Renaissance, Pays-Bas méridionaux, probablement Bruxelles, début du XVIe siècle	€50,000–€80,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
33	Thomas De Keyser	Portrait d'un orfèvre, probablement Christiaen van Vianen ou Simon Andriesz. Valckenier	€400,000–€600,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
34	—	a german parcel-gilt silver salt, probably guillaume or gabriel van den velden, frankenthal, circa 1600	€30,000–€50,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
35	—	Rare plat en étoile en argent et vermeil apparemment sans poinçon, Pays-Bas ou Allemagne, première moitié du XVIIe siècle	€40,000–€60,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
36	—	Surtout de table en argent par Elie Pacot, Lille, 1709-1710	€150,000–€250,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
37	—	Thomas Tompion n° 376. Petite pendule en ébène à répétition de quarts d’époque William III, Londres, vers 1700	€150,000–€250,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
38	—	George Graham No.679. Pendule à boîtier en noyer d’époque George II, Londres, vers 1730	€30,000–€50,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
39	—	George Graham, No. 719. Petite pendule à répétition en ébène d’époque George II, Londres, vers 1735	€40,000–€60,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
40	Studio of Rembrandt Harmensz. van Rijn	L'Archange Raphaël quittant la famille de Tobie	€200,000–€300,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
41	—	Vase à fleurs couvert ou « tulipière » en faïence bleue de Delft, vers 1695	€20,000–€30,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
42	—	La tazza du Jugement de Pâris en vermeil par Jacob Schenauer, Augsbourg, vers 1580-1590, d’après un dessin de Paul Flindt le Jeune Nuremberg	€80,000–€120,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
43	Abraham Mignon	Guirlande de fleurs et fruits représentant les Quatre Eléments	€300,000–€400,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
44	Salomon Van Ruysdael	Scènes d'estuaires avec des bateaux	€300,000–€400,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
45	Jacob Adriaensz. Backer	Portrait d'Abraham Velters (1603–1690) en buste, vêtu d'un manteau gris	€200,000–€300,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
46	Joos De Momper	Voyageurs dans un paysage hivernal	€120,000–€180,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	unsold or withdrawn
47	—	Corbeille en argent Londres, 1612, maître-orfèvre aux trois étoiles	€80,000–€120,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
48	Michael Sweerts	Jeune homme au turban tenant un roemer retourné : le test de l'ongle	€800,000–€1,200,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
49	Isaac Van Ostade	Berger portant un chapeau et tenant une houlette	€50,000–€80,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
50	Jean-Baptiste Greuze	Etude pour un vieil homme	€60,000–€80,000	90%	artist clears 73% at panel houses, n=46	sold
51	—	Thomas Tompion, n° 137. Pendule en placage d'ébène, avec alarme, d’époque William and Mary, Londres, vers 1690	€120,000–€180,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	unsold or withdrawn
52	—	Pendule à quart de tour en placage d'ébène d’époque Charles II, Joseph Knibb, Londres, vers 1680	€100,000–€150,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	unsold or withdrawn
53	—	Thomas Tompion. Pendule à répétition des quarts en ébène et monture de laiton doré, avec alarme, d’époque Charles II, Londres, vers 1675/80	€80,000–€120,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
54	Sir Peter Paul Rubens	Etude pour une tête de jeune garçon	€500,000–€700,000	86%	estimate 25× the artist's median hammer	sold
55	—	Italie, Florence, début du XVIIIe siècle	€80,000–€120,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	unsold or withdrawn
56	Called Le Lorrain Claude Gellée	Paysage italianisant avec un jeune berger jouant de la cornemuse	€150,000–€250,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
57	Joseph-charles Marin	Une petite Naïade appuyée sur une urne	€80,000–€120,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
58	—	Pot-à-oille et son couvercle en argent par Thomas Farren, Londres, 1726	€40,000–€60,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
59	—	Louche en argent du service Aveiras par Charles Spire, Paris, 1753	€40,000–€60,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
60	—	Tabatière en or et émail par Jean Moynat, Paris, 1745-1746	€250,000–€350,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
61	—	Tabatière en or et émail par Jean Formey, Paris, 1756-1757, les émaux par Mademoiselle Duplessis	€280,000–€350,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
62	—	Tabatière en or et émail par Mathieu Coiny, Paris, 1761-1762	€120,000–€180,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	unsold or withdrawn
63	—	Tabatière en or et émail, poinçon d'orfèvre JB/IB couronné, Londres, vers 1760	€120,000–€180,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	unsold or withdrawn
64	—	Rare tabatière 'tontine' en or et émail, Londres, vers 1758	€100,000–€150,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
65	—	Tabatière en pierres dures, nacre et coquillage de burgau et monture d'or de quatre couleurs, probablement Daniel Baudesson, Berlin, vers 1755	€150,000–€250,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
66	—	Boîte 'Steinkabinett' en or et pierres dures par Johann Christian Neuber, Dresde, vers 1785	€120,000–€180,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
67	Jan Victors	Portrait de jeune femme en buste, vêtue d'une robe brodée d'or	€60,000–€80,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
68	—	Banquette en bois doré d’époque George II, vers 1740, dessinée par William Kent et probablement réalisée par James Richards	€70,000–€100,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
69	Louis François Roubiliac	Buste d’Alexander Pope	€60,000–€80,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	unsold or withdrawn
70	—	Important ensemble de douze chaises de salle à manger en noyer, d’époque George II, vers 1755, attribué à William Hallet	€60,000–€80,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
71	—	Rare ensemble de douze flambeaux royaux en argent par Christian Heinrich Ingermann, Dresde, 1745-1746	€200,000–€300,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
72	—	Paire de lion et lionne en porcelaine de Meissen, vers 1748	€50,000–€80,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
73	—	Paire de flambeaux en vermeil par Paul de Lamerie, Londres, 1739	€50,000–€70,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
74	—	Corbeille en argent par Paul de Lamerie, Londres, 1739	€60,000–€80,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
75	Pompeo Batoni	Portrait du révérend Thomas Kerrich (1748–1828)	€100,000–€150,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
76	Francis Hayman, R.A	Double portrait de David Garrick et William Windham de Felbrigg, assis dans un paysage	€60,000–€80,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
77	—	Ensemble de huit chaises en acajou d’époque George III, sept par Thomas Chippendale vers 1769, une plus tardive	€120,000–€180,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
78	—	Rare pendule à automate musical en argent et vermeil d’époque George III, par James Cox, Londres, vers 1780	€100,000–€150,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
79	—	Paire de rafraichissoirs royaux en argent par John Parker et Edward Wakelin, Londres, 1763	€80,000–€120,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
80	—	Garniture en porcelaine de Sèvres bleu céleste et bronze doré d’époque Louis XV, vers 1765, les montures attribuées à Jean Dulac	€150,000–€250,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	unsold or withdrawn
81	Angelica Kauffmann, R.A	Femme dessinant, ou Allégorie des Arts	€100,000–€150,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
82	Sir Joshua Reynolds, P.R.A	Autoportrait en robe de docteur	€300,000–€500,000	85%	estimate 23× the artist's median hammer	sold
83	Louis-léopold Boilly	Portrait présumé d'Antoinette-Charlotte Leduc (1791–1864) dans un paysage	€70,000–€100,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
84	John Singer Sargent, Ra	Portrait d'Edgar Vincent, Vicomte d'Abernon, G.C.M.G.	€200,000–€300,000	88%	estimate 3.6× the artist's median hammer	sold

Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.

Method and citation

What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Sotheby's, The Manny Davidson Collection: A Life in Treasures and Benevolence - Evening Sale, 5 November 2025", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/26829. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.

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