Retrospective · Sotheby's scored
Leonard A. Lauder, Collector | Evening Auction
Sotheby's, New York · 18 November 2025 · sale page ↗. Retrospective — scored after the sale on the results as recorded; lots withdrawn before the sale are not in the record; the model that scored it was trained on data through 2025-09-15, before this sale.
Result scored 2026-09-16 · final
Forecast 89% (range 72–100%). Result 100%: 21 of 21 scored lots sold, 0 unsold or withdrawn. Inside the range, 11 pts above the forecast.
Ten lowest-scored lots: 0 of 10 unsold vs 0 of 11 others (the model expected about 1 of the ten unsold).
Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →
89% range 72–100%expected sell-through by lotof the 21 lots with a printed estimate
88%by low-estimate valueof $79M low estimate
19 15–21expected soldof 21 scored lots
3unscoredno printed estimate
2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots
Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.
Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 21 scored lots
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate | Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 13 | Ernst Ludwig Kirchner | Fränzi mit Pfeilbogen (Fränzi with Bow and Arrow) | $2,500,000–$3,500,000 | 78% | sold |
| 18 | Kurt Schwitters | Ohne Titel (Komposition auf Holz) (Untitled, Composition on Wood) | $120,000–$180,000 | 86% | sold |
| 24 | Claes Oldenburg | Clothespin—45 Foot Version (Model) | $600,000–$800,000 | 86% | sold |
| 19 | Robert Rauschenberg | Untitled | $1,500,000–$2,000,000 | 86% | sold |
| 6 | Edvard Munch | Sankthansnatt (Midsummer Night) | $20,000,000–$30,000,000 | 87% | sold |
| 12 | Agnes Martin | The Garden | $10,000,000–$15,000,000 | 88% | sold |
| 17 | Agnes Martin | Untitled #4 | $2,000,000–$3,000,000 | 88% | sold |
| 16 | Kenneth Noland | Plus 10 | $1,200,000–$1,800,000 | 88% | sold |
| 15 | Henri Matisse | Nu couché I (Aurore) | $8,000,000–$10,000,000 | 89% | sold |
| 5 | Henri Matisse | La Serpentine | $9,000,000–$12,000,000 | 89% | sold |
In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.
By estimate band low estimate in USD
| Band | Lots | Expected | Low estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| $50k+ | 21 | 89% | $79M |
Context evening sales at Sotheby's, trailing year
Over the year before the sale (2024-11-18 to 2025-11-17), Sotheby's sold 88% of the 621 lots with a recorded outcome in its 15 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.
Every scored lot 21 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most
Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 88%, n=534,208 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · November sales clear 71%, n=519,833 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate USD | Probability | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Alexander Calder | Untitled | $200,000–$300,000 | 92% | artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=1,650 | sold |
| 2 | Alexander Calder | Four White on Little Red | $200,000–$300,000 | 92% | artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=1,650 | sold |
| 3 | Pablo Picasso | Trois personnages | $600,000–$800,000 | 91% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=9,299 | sold |
| 4 | Vincent Van Gogh | Le Semeur dans un champ de blé au soleil couchant | $8,000,000–$10,000,000 | 93% | artist clears 81% at panel houses, n=46 | sold |
| 5 | Henri Matisse | La Serpentine | $9,000,000–$12,000,000 | 89% | estimate 1,909× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 6 | Edvard Munch | Sankthansnatt (Midsummer Night) | $20,000,000–$30,000,000 | 87% | estimate 3,125× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 7 | Henri Matisse | Figure décorative | $12,000,000–$18,000,000 | 89% | estimate 2,727× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 9 | Gustav Klimt | Sitzend von vorne mit ausgestrecktem linkem Arm, das Kinn aufgestützt (Studie für das Porträt I der Adele Bloch-Bauer) (Study for Portrait I of Adele Bloch-Bauer) | $150,000–$250,000 | 91% | artist clears 82% at panel houses, n=195 | sold |
| 10 | Gustav Klimt | Stehend von vorne (Studie für Bildnis Adele Bloch-Bauer) (Study for Portrait I of Adele Bloch-Bauer) | $80,000–$120,000 | 91% | artist clears 82% at panel houses, n=195 | sold |
| 12 | Agnes Martin | The Garden | $10,000,000–$15,000,000 | 88% | estimate 2,574× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 13 | Ernst Ludwig Kirchner | Fränzi mit Pfeilbogen (Fränzi with Bow and Arrow) | $2,500,000–$3,500,000 | 78% | estimate 273× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 15 | Henri Matisse | Nu couché I (Aurore) | $8,000,000–$10,000,000 | 89% | estimate 1,636× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 16 | Kenneth Noland | Plus 10 | $1,200,000–$1,800,000 | 88% | estimate 188× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 17 | Agnes Martin | Untitled #4 | $2,000,000–$3,000,000 | 88% | estimate 515× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 18 | Kurt Schwitters | Ohne Titel (Komposition auf Holz) (Untitled, Composition on Wood) | $120,000–$180,000 | 86% | estimate 8.1× the artist's median hammer | sold |
| 19 | Robert Rauschenberg | Untitled | $1,500,000–$2,000,000 | 86% | estimate 875× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 20 | Henri Matisse | Henriette I | $400,000–$600,000 | 89% | estimate 91× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 21 | Henri Matisse | Henriette II | $600,000–$800,000 | 89% | estimate 127× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 22 | Henri Matisse | Henriette III (Grosse tête souriante) | $800,000–$1,200,000 | 89% | estimate 182× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 23 | Pablo Picasso | La Minotauromachie | $1,200,000–$1,800,000 | 91% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=9,299 | sold |
| 24 | Claes Oldenburg | Clothespin—45 Foot Version (Model) | $600,000–$800,000 | 86% | estimate 700× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.
Not in the forecast 3 lots carry no printed estimate
3 lots carry no printed estimate (estimate on request) and are not in the forecast. That is common at the top of an evening sale, so the value figure above understates the catalog.
Method and citation
- What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
- The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
- Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
- Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
- Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Sotheby's, Leonard A. Lauder, Collector | Evening Auction, 18 November 2025", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/26846. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.
Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.