Result scored 2026-09-16 · final

Forecast 90% (range 79–100%). Result 100%: 40 of 40 scored lots sold, 0 unsold or withdrawn. Inside the range, 10 pts above the forecast.

Ten lowest-scored lots: 0 of 10 unsold vs 0 of 30 others (the model expected about 1 of the ten unsold).

Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →

90% range 79–100%expected sell-through by lotof the 40 lots with a printed estimate

90%by low-estimate valueof $116M low estimate

36 31–40expected soldof 40 scored lots

1unscoredno printed estimate

2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots

Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.

Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 40 scored lots

Lot	Artist	Work	Estimate	Probability	Result
142	Helmut Newton	Walking Women, Paris	$1,200,000–$1,800,000	86%	sold
140	Jeff Koons	Hulk (Rock)	$2,000,000–$3,000,000	86%	sold
119	Keith Haring	Untitled	$800,000–$1,200,000	86%	sold
104	Cecily Brown	High Society	$4,000,000–$6,000,000	87%	sold
101	Raymond Pettibon	No Title (Preparing the Ground)	$1,000,000–$1,500,000	88%	sold
116	Yves Klein	Sculpture éponge bleue sans titre (SE 167)	$14,000,000–$18,000,000	88%	sold
113	Philip Guston	The Picture	$2,000,000–$3,000,000	89%	sold
108	Damien Hirst	Momentary Love Blossom	$2,500,000–$3,500,000	89%	sold
107	Peter Doig	Ski Jacket	$1,000,000–$1,500,000	89%	sold
110	Cady Noland	Cowboy Eating with Shoulder Hole	$600,000–$800,000	89%	sold

In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.

By estimate band low estimate in USD

Band	Lots	Expected	Low estimate
$50k+	40	90%	$116M

Context evening sales at Sotheby's, trailing year

Over the year before the sale (2024-11-19 to 2025-11-18), Sotheby's sold 88% of the 620 lots with a recorded outcome in its 15 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.

Every scored lot 40 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most

Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 88%, n=534,208 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · November sales clear 71%, n=519,833 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.

Lot	Artist	Work	Estimate USD	Probability	Why	Result
101	Raymond Pettibon	No Title (Preparing the Ground)	$1,000,000–$1,500,000	88%	estimate 233× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
102	Henry Taylor	Before Gerhard Richter there was Cassi	$800,000–$1,200,000	91%	artist clears 75% at panel houses, n=87	sold
103	Antonio Obá	Alvorada - Música Incidental Black Bird	$100,000–$150,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
104	Cecily Brown	High Society	$4,000,000–$6,000,000	87%	estimate 48× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
105	Yu Nishimura	thicket	$80,000–$120,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
107	Peter Doig	Ski Jacket	$1,000,000–$1,500,000	89%	estimate 454× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
108	Damien Hirst	Momentary Love Blossom	$2,500,000–$3,500,000	89%	estimate 597× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
110	Cady Noland	Cowboy Eating with Shoulder Hole	$600,000–$800,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
111	Jess	Fig. 6–A Lamb for Pylaochos: Herko, N.Y. ’64: Translation #16	$120,000–$180,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
112	Andy Warhol	The American Indian (Russell Means)	$2,000,000–$3,000,000	90%	artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=5,598	sold
113	Philip Guston	The Picture	$2,000,000–$3,000,000	89%	estimate 595× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
114	Barnett Newman	Untitled	$600,000–$800,000	90%	artist clears 74% at panel houses, n=45	sold
115	Lucio Fontana	Concetto spaziale, Attesa	$2,000,000–$3,000,000	90%	artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=649	sold
116	Yves Klein	Sculpture éponge bleue sans titre (SE 167)	$14,000,000–$18,000,000	88%	estimate 816× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
117	Frank Stella	Concentric Square	$5,000,000–$7,000,000	91%	artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=955	sold
119	Keith Haring	Untitled	$800,000–$1,200,000	86%	estimate 200× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
120	Jean-Michel Basquiat	Crowns (Peso Neto)	$35,000,000–$45,000,000	90%	artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=407	sold
121	Noah Davis	The Casting Call	$1,000,000–$1,500,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
122	Simone Leigh	Sphinx	$700,000–$1,000,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
123	Mark Tansey	Nature’s Ape	$4,000,000–$6,000,000	92%	artist clears 78% at panel houses, n=40	sold
124	Roy Lichtenstein	Woman: Sunlight, Moonlight (Study)	$1,500,000–$2,000,000	91%	artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,963	sold
125	Roy Lichtenstein	Modern Painting Triptych II	$3,500,000–$4,500,000	91%	artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,963	sold
126	Roy Lichtenstein	Large Interior with Three Reflections (Mural Panel) (Study)	$1,000,000–$1,500,000	92%	artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,963	sold
127	Roy Lichtenstein	Coup de Chapeau II	$1,500,000–$2,000,000	91%	artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,963	sold
128	Donald Judd	Untitled	$3,500,000–$4,500,000	91%	artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=476	sold
129	Rashid Johnson	Anxious Red Painting August 20th	$1,000,000–$1,500,000	91%	artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=222	sold
130	Frank Stella	Great Jones Street	$4,000,000–$6,000,000	91%	artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=955	sold
131	Morris Louis	Dalet Mem	$1,000,000–$1,500,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
132	Ad Reinhardt	Abstract Painting, Black	$1,200,000–$1,800,000	92%	artist clears 79% at panel houses, n=47	sold
133	Mark Tansey	The Myth of Depth	$2,500,000–$3,500,000	91%	artist clears 78% at panel houses, n=40	sold
135	Roy Lichtenstein	Brushstrokes	$4,000,000–$6,000,000	92%	artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,963	sold
136	Roy Lichtenstein	Sound of Music (Study)	$800,000–$1,200,000	92%	artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,963	sold
137	Roy Lichtenstein	Cubist Still Life with Vase and Flowers	$4,000,000–$6,000,000	92%	artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,963	sold
138	Roy Lichtenstein	Flower with Bamboo	$2,000,000–$3,000,000	92%	artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,963	sold
139	Matthew Wong	The Gentle Sea	$1,200,000–$1,800,000	95%	artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=63	sold
140	Jeff Koons	Hulk (Rock)	$2,000,000–$3,000,000	86%	estimate 455× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
141	Wayne Thiebaud	Revue Girl	$1,500,000–$2,000,000	90%	artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=532	sold
142	Helmut Newton	Walking Women, Paris	$1,200,000–$1,800,000	86%	estimate 188× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
143	Reggie Burrows Hodges	Hurdling: Sky Blue	$300,000–$400,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
144	Robert Alice	Block 1 (24.9472° N, 118.5979° E)	$600,000–$800,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold

Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.

Not in the forecast 1 lot carry no printed estimate

1 lot carries no printed estimate (estimate on request) and is not in the forecast. That is common at the top of an evening sale, so the value figure above understates the catalog.

Lot	Artist	Work
109	Maurizio Cattelan	America

Method and citation

What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Sotheby's, The Now & Contemporary Evening Auction, 19 November 2025", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/26848. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.

Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.

The Now & Contemporary Evening Auction