Result scored 2026-09-16 · final

Forecast 88% (range 72–100%). Result 100%: 24 of 24 scored lots sold, 0 unsold or withdrawn. Inside the range, 12 pts above the forecast.

Ten lowest-scored lots: 0 of 10 unsold vs 0 of 14 others (the model expected about 2 of the ten unsold).

Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →

88% range 72–100%expected sell-through by lotof the 24 lots with a printed estimate

89%by low-estimate valueof $67M low estimate

21 17–24expected soldof 24 scored lots

0unscoredno printed estimate

2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots

Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.

Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 24 scored lots

Lot	Artist	Work	Estimate	Probability	Result
8	Giorgio De Chirico	Le Muse inquietanti	$3,000,000–$4,000,000	82%	sold
14	Óscar Domínguez	La Machine à écrire ou Le Jeu de la logique	$1,000,000–$1,500,000	84%	sold
19	Paul Delvaux	Composition	$2,500,000–$3,500,000	84%	sold
10	Yves Tanguy	Ce Matin	$1,000,000–$1,500,000	84%	sold
17	Salvador Dalí	La Ville (illustration pour l'article "The American City Night-and-Day," The American Weekly)	$600,000–$800,000	85%	sold
21	Hans Bellmer	Les Bas rayés	$300,000–$400,000	85%	sold
5	Salvador Dalí	Symbiose de la tête aux coquillages	$2,000,000–$3,000,000	85%	sold
11	Hans Bellmer	Mains et bras	$120,000–$180,000	86%	sold
3	Max Ernst	J'ai bu du tabourin, j'ai mangé du cimbal	$1,200,000–$1,800,000	86%	sold
2	Dorothea Tanning	Interior with Sudden Joy	$2,000,000–$3,000,000	87%	sold

In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.

By estimate band low estimate in USD

Band	Lots	Expected	Low estimate
$50k+	24	88%	$67M

Context evening sales at Sotheby's, trailing year

Over the year before the sale (2024-11-20 to 2025-11-19), Sotheby's sold 90% of the 630 lots with a recorded outcome in its 15 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.

Every scored lot 24 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most

Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 88%, n=534,208 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · November sales clear 71%, n=519,833 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.

Lot	Artist	Work	Estimate USD	Probability	Why	Result
1	Valentine Hugo	Le Crapaud de Maldoror	$100,000–$150,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
2	Dorothea Tanning	Interior with Sudden Joy	$2,000,000–$3,000,000	87%	estimate 556× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
3	Max Ernst	J'ai bu du tabourin, j'ai mangé du cimbal	$1,200,000–$1,800,000	86%	estimate 789× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
4	Kay Sage	The Point of Intersection	$1,000,000–$1,500,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
5	Salvador Dalí	Symbiose de la tête aux coquillages	$2,000,000–$3,000,000	85%	estimate 1,562× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
6	Victor Brauner	Maison hantée	$500,000–$700,000	88%	estimate 97× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
7	René Magritte	La Révélation du présent	$2,000,000–$3,000,000	93%	artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=342	sold
8	Giorgio De Chirico	Le Muse inquietanti	$3,000,000–$4,000,000	82%	estimate 3,484× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
9	Kay Sage	Detour	$700,000–$1,000,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
10	Yves Tanguy	Ce Matin	$1,000,000–$1,500,000	84%	estimate 102× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
11	Hans Bellmer	Mains et bras	$120,000–$180,000	86%	estimate 39× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
12	Remedios Varo	Sans titre	$500,000–$700,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
13	Frida Kahlo	El sueño (La cama)	$40,000,000–$60,000,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
14	Óscar Domínguez	La Machine à écrire ou Le Jeu de la logique	$1,000,000–$1,500,000	84%	estimate 51× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
15	Wolfgang Paalen	Fata Alaska	$350,000–$450,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
16	Amedee Ozenfant	Nocturne faustien	$150,000–$250,000	89%	artist clears 70% at panel houses, n=44	sold
17	Salvador Dalí	La Ville (illustration pour l'article "The American City Night-and-Day," The American Weekly)	$600,000–$800,000	85%	estimate 438× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
18	René Magritte	L'Idée fixe	$1,000,000–$1,500,000	93%	artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=342	sold
19	Paul Delvaux	Composition	$2,500,000–$3,500,000	84%	estimate 1,364× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
20	René Magritte	La Représentation	$4,000,000–$6,000,000	93%	artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=342	sold
21	Hans Bellmer	Les Bas rayés	$300,000–$400,000	85%	estimate 92× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
22	René Magritte	Le Symbole dissimulé	$1,200,000–$1,800,000	93%	artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=342	sold
23	Jean	Poupée borgne	$700,000–$1,000,000	88%	estimate 603× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
24	René Magritte	Le Jockey perdu	$800,000–$1,200,000	93%	artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=342	sold

Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.

Method and citation

What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Sotheby's, Exquisite Corpus Evening Auction, 20 November 2025", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/26858. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.

Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.