Result scored 2026-09-16 · final

Forecast 88% (range 74–100%). Result 100%: 29 of 29 scored lots sold, 0 unsold or withdrawn. Inside the range, 12 pts above the forecast.

Ten lowest-scored lots: 0 of 10 unsold vs 0 of 19 others (the model expected about 2 of the ten unsold).

Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →

88% range 74–100%expected sell-through by lotof the 29 lots with a printed estimate

89%by low-estimate valueof $71M low estimate

26 21–29expected soldof 29 scored lots

0unscoredno printed estimate

2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots

Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.

Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 29 scored lots

Lot	Artist	Work	Estimate	Probability	Result
128	Childe Hassam	Newport, October Sundown	$1,200,000–$1,800,000	82%	sold
119	Jacques Lipchitz	Baigneuse assise	$600,000–$800,000	83%	sold
124	Andrew Wyeth	East Waldoboro	$4,000,000–$6,000,000	84%	sold
110	Wifredo Lam	Ídolo (Oyá/Divinité de l'air et de la mort)	$6,000,000–$8,000,000	84%	sold
118	Henry Moore	Working Model for Reclining Figure: Hand	$1,800,000–$2,500,000	85%	sold
126	Edgar Degas	Trois danseuses	$3,500,000–$5,000,000	85%	sold
106	Salvador Dalí	Personnage aux tiroirs	$700,000–$1,000,000	85%	sold
109	Max Ernst	Les Asperges de la lune	$2,000,000–$3,000,000	86%	sold
129	Paul Klee	Miniatüre Oben u Unten Schwarz Gefasst (Miniature Framed Black at Top and Bottom)	$400,000–$600,000	86%	sold
121	Hans Hofmann	String Quartet	$1,500,000–$2,000,000	87%	sold

In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.

By estimate band low estimate in USD

Band	Lots	Expected	Low estimate
$50k+	29	88%	$71M

Context evening sales at Sotheby's, trailing year

Over the year before the sale (2024-11-21 to 2025-11-20), Sotheby's sold 90% of the 667 lots with a recorded outcome in its 17 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.

Every scored lot 29 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most

Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 88%, n=534,208 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · November sales clear 71%, n=519,833 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.

Lot	Artist	Work	Estimate USD	Probability	Why	Result
101	Joan Miró	Personnages et oiseau devant le soleil	$400,000–$600,000	90%	artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=3,200	sold
102	Paul Klee	Kopf (Head)	$300,000–$500,000	87%	estimate 21× the artist's median hammer	sold
103	René Magritte	Le Jockey perdu	$9,000,000–$12,000,000	93%	artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=342	sold
104	Joan Miró	Femmes, oiseau, étoiles	$1,200,000–$1,800,000	90%	artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=3,200	sold
105	Jean Dubuffet	Restaurant Rougeot II	$6,000,000–$8,000,000	91%	artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=824	sold
106	Salvador Dalí	Personnage aux tiroirs	$700,000–$1,000,000	85%	estimate 531× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
108	Jean	Ptolémée III	$3,000,000–$5,000,000	88%	estimate 2,835× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
109	Max Ernst	Les Asperges de la lune	$2,000,000–$3,000,000	86%	estimate 1,316× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
110	Wifredo Lam	Ídolo (Oyá/Divinité de l'air et de la mort)	$6,000,000–$8,000,000	84%	estimate 10,305× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
111	Fernand Léger	Paysage animé	$2,000,000–$3,000,000	87%	estimate 250× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
112	Georges Seurat	Clowns et poney	$3,000,000–$5,000,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
113	Georgia O'keeffe	Large Dark Red Leaves on White	$6,000,000–$8,000,000	91%	artist clears 77% at panel houses, n=107	sold
114	Alexander Calder	L'Arlequin	$1,500,000–$2,000,000	92%	artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=1,650	sold
115	Mark Rothko	Untitled	$3,000,000–$5,000,000	93%	artist clears 82% at panel houses, n=42	sold
116	Alberto Giacometti	Buste de Diego	$3,500,000–$4,500,000	91%	artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=543	sold
117	Pablo Picasso	Homme et femme. Têtes	$3,000,000–$5,000,000	91%	artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=9,299	sold
118	Henry Moore	Working Model for Reclining Figure: Hand	$1,800,000–$2,500,000	85%	estimate 1,576× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
119	Jacques Lipchitz	Baigneuse assise	$600,000–$800,000	83%	estimate 350× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
120	Morris Louis	Polaris	$1,200,000–$1,800,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
121	Hans Hofmann	String Quartet	$1,500,000–$2,000,000	87%	estimate 103× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
122	Adolph Gottlieb	Elegy	$800,000–$1,200,000	88%	estimate 400× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
123	Arthur Garfield Dove	Rose and Locust Stump	$1,200,000–$1,800,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
124	Andrew Wyeth	East Waldoboro	$4,000,000–$6,000,000	84%	estimate 67× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
125	Claude Monet	Vue de Rouen depuis la côte Sainte-Catherine	$3,000,000–$4,000,000	95%	artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=157	sold
126	Edgar Degas	Trois danseuses	$3,500,000–$5,000,000	85%	estimate 134× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
128	Childe Hassam	Newport, October Sundown	$1,200,000–$1,800,000	82%	estimate 38× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
129	Paul Klee	Miniatüre Oben u Unten Schwarz Gefasst (Miniature Framed Black at Top and Bottom)	$400,000–$600,000	86%	estimate 26× the artist's median hammer	sold
131	Norman Lewis	Gathering	$1,000,000–$1,500,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
132	Agustin Cardenas	Mon ombre après minuit	$300,000–$500,000	93%	artist clears 80% at panel houses, n=49	sold

Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.

Method and citation

What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Sotheby's, Modern Evening Auction, 21 November 2025", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/26863. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.

Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.