Result scored 2026-09-16 · final

Forecast 90% (range 74–100%). Result 50%: 12 of 24 scored lots sold, 12 unsold or withdrawn. Outside the range, 40 pts below the forecast.

Ten lowest-scored lots: 3 of 10 unsold vs 9 of 14 others (the model expected about 1 of the ten unsold).

Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →

90% range 74–100%expected sell-through by lotof the 24 lots with a printed estimate

89%by low-estimate valueof $7.6M low estimate (USD; sale currency GBP)

21 18–24expected soldof 24 scored lots

0unscoredno printed estimate

2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots

Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.

Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 24 scored lots

Lot	Artist	Work	Estimate	Probability	Result
8	Edward Burra	French Scene	£300,000–£500,000	79%	unsold or withdrawn
2	Christopher Richard Wynne Nevinson, A.R.A	French troops resting	£40,000–£60,000	84%	sold
13	Ben Nicholson O.m.	Sept. 53 (Balearic)	£1,500,000–£2,500,000	86%	sold
16	William Scott, R.A	Black and Grey	£120,000–£180,000	88%	unsold or withdrawn
12	Roger Hilton	May 1963	£150,000–£250,000	88%	sold
6	William Nichols	Bunch of Flowers	£180,000–£250,000	89%	sold
20	Barry Flanagan, R.A	Les Deux	£250,000–£350,000	89%	sold
15	Bryan Wynter	High Country	£70,000–£100,000	89%	sold
1	Frederick Etchells	Vorticist Composition	£40,000–£60,000	90%	unsold or withdrawn
7	Glyn Philpot, R.A	Portrait of a Man with Hibiscus Flower (Félix)	£120,000–£180,000	90%	sold

In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.

By estimate band low estimate in USD

Band	Lots	Expected	Low estimate
$50k+	24	90%	$7.6M

Context evening sales at Sotheby's, trailing year

Over the year before the sale (2024-11-25 to 2025-11-24), Sotheby's sold 91% of the 656 lots with a recorded outcome in its 17 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.

Every scored lot 24 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most

Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 88%, n=534,208 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · November sales clear 71%, n=519,833 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.

Lot	Artist	Work	Estimate GBP	Probability	Why	Result
1	Frederick Etchells	Vorticist Composition	£40,000–£60,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	unsold or withdrawn
2	Christopher Richard Wynne Nevinson, A.R.A	French troops resting	£40,000–£60,000	84%	estimate 11× the artist's median hammer	sold
3	Duncan Grant	Compotier with Fruit	£50,000–£80,000	92%	artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=274	sold
4	Duncan Grant	Spring Flowers in Omega Vase	£70,000–£100,000	91%	artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=274	sold
5	Duncan Grant	Still Life with Bottle and Glass (Double Sided)	£60,000–£80,000	91%	artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=274	unsold or withdrawn
6	William Nichols	Bunch of Flowers	£180,000–£250,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
7	Glyn Philpot, R.A	Portrait of a Man with Hibiscus Flower (Félix)	£120,000–£180,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
8	Edward Burra	French Scene	£300,000–£500,000	79%	estimate 164× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	unsold or withdrawn
9	Dod Procter	Madame Moïse	£40,000–£60,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	unsold or withdrawn
10	Laurence Stephen Lowry	An Old Street	£800,000–£1,200,000	93%	artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=950	unsold or withdrawn
11	Lynn Chadwick, R.A	First Girl Sitting on Bench	£180,000–£250,000	91%	artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=453	unsold or withdrawn
12	Roger Hilton	May 1963	£150,000–£250,000	88%	estimate 74× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
13	Ben Nicholson O.m.	Sept. 53 (Balearic)	£1,500,000–£2,500,000	86%	estimate 563× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
14	Barbara Hepworth	Three Curves with Strings (Gold Mincarlo)	£200,000–£300,000	91%	artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=137	sold
15	Bryan Wynter	High Country	£70,000–£100,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
16	William Scott, R.A	Black and Grey	£120,000–£180,000	88%	estimate 63× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	unsold or withdrawn
17	Frank Auerbach	Head of Ruth Bromberg	£250,000–£350,000	90%	artist clears 84% at panel houses, n=197	sold
18	Laurence Stephen Lowry	The Estuary	£700,000–£1,000,000	93%	artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=950	unsold or withdrawn
19	Lynn Chadwick, R.A	Maquette II for Jubilee III	£150,000–£250,000	92%	artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=453	unsold or withdrawn
20	Barry Flanagan, R.A	Les Deux	£250,000–£350,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
21	Francis Campbell Boileau Cadell, R.S.A., R.S.W	Florian's Café, Venice	£200,000–£300,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	unsold or withdrawn
22	Anne Redpath, R.S.A., A.R.A	The Blue Tablecloth	£120,000–£180,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	unsold or withdrawn
23	Victor Pasmore	Linear Construction	£60,000–£80,000	91%	artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=406	sold
24	Lynn Chadwick, R.A	Pair of Sitting Figures VI	£100,000–£150,000	92%	artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=453	unsold or withdrawn

Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.

Method and citation

What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Sotheby's, Modern British and Irish Art Evening Auction, 25 November 2025", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/26870. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.

Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.