Result scored 2026-09-16 · final

Forecast 89% (range 75–100%). Result 77%: 23 of 30 scored lots sold, 7 unsold or withdrawn. Inside the range, 12 pts below the forecast.

Ten lowest-scored lots: 4 of 10 unsold vs 3 of 20 others (the model expected about 1 of the ten unsold).

Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →

89% range 75–100%expected sell-through by lotof the 30 lots with a printed estimate

89%by low-estimate valueof $30M low estimate (USD; sale currency GBP)

27 23–30expected soldof 30 scored lots

0unscoredno printed estimate

2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots

Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.

Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 30 scored lots

Lot	Artist	Work	Estimate	Probability	Result
10	Sir Peter Paul Rubens	The Virgin and Child with Saint Anne adored by Saints of the House of Habsburg	£2,000,000–£3,000,000	86%	sold
12	Sir Peter Paul Rubens	Portrait study of an old man	£1,000,000–£1,500,000	86%	sold
19	David Teniers the Younger	Village landscape with herdsmen, a milkmaid, cattle, sheep and a dog, a city beyond	£80,000–£120,000	87%	sold
31	Ivan Konstantinovich Aivazovsky	Heavy Seas	£500,000–£800,000	89%	sold
7	Lucas Van Valckenborch	The Crucifixion of Christ on Mount Calvary	£300,000–£400,000	89%	unsold or withdrawn
8	Gillis Mostaert the Elder	A village kermesse	£300,000–£400,000	89%	unsold or withdrawn
9	Lucas Van Valckenborch	Autumn: Archduke Matthias of Austria with members of his court at the Vintage	£600,000–£800,000	89%	unsold or withdrawn
11	Guido Reni	Christ Bearing the Cross	£300,000–£400,000	89%	unsold or withdrawn
26	Jean-Baptiste Pater	A military encampment with troops at rest (La Paix); The departure of the troops (La Guerre)	£150,000–£200,000	89%	sold
2	The Master of the Sherborne Almshouse Triptych	A triptych with the five miracles of Christ	£2,500,000–£3,500,000	89%	sold

In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.

By estimate band low estimate in USD

Band	Lots	Expected	Low estimate
$50k+	30	89%	$30M

Context evening sales at Sotheby's, trailing year

Over the year before the sale (2024-12-03 to 2025-12-02), Sotheby's sold 89% of the 680 lots with a recorded outcome in its 18 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.

Every scored lot 30 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most

Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 88%, n=534,208 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · December sales clear 70%, n=454,780 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.

Lot	Artist	Work	Estimate GBP	Probability	Why	Result
1	South German School, probably Ulm, early 16th century	Portrait of the architect Moritz Ensinger (c. 1430–1482/3)	£100,000–£150,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
2	The Master of the Sherborne Almshouse Triptych	A triptych with the five miracles of Christ	£2,500,000–£3,500,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
3	Northern French School, early 16th century	The Presentation of the Virgin	£150,000–£250,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	unsold or withdrawn
4	Albrecht Dürer	Adam and Eve	£250,000–£450,000	92%	artist clears 90% at panel houses, n=581	sold
5	Hans Eworth	Portrait of Thomas Howard, 4th Duke of Norfolk (1538–1578)	£2,000,000–£3,000,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
6	Pieter Brueghel the Younger	The Census at Bethlehem	£3,000,000–£5,000,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
7	Lucas Van Valckenborch	The Crucifixion of Christ on Mount Calvary	£300,000–£400,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	unsold or withdrawn
8	Gillis Mostaert the Elder	A village kermesse	£300,000–£400,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	unsold or withdrawn
9	Lucas Van Valckenborch	Autumn: Archduke Matthias of Austria with members of his court at the Vintage	£600,000–£800,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	unsold or withdrawn
10	Sir Peter Paul Rubens	The Virgin and Child with Saint Anne adored by Saints of the House of Habsburg	£2,000,000–£3,000,000	86%	estimate 119× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
11	Guido Reni	Christ Bearing the Cross	£300,000–£400,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	unsold or withdrawn
12	Sir Peter Paul Rubens	Portrait study of an old man	£1,000,000–£1,500,000	86%	estimate 59× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
13	Sir Anthony Van Dyck And Studio	The Cheeke Sisters: Double portrait of Essex, Countess of Manchester (circa 1617–1658) and her sister, Anne, later Countess of Warwick and Clanricarde (1620–after 1683), three-quarter-length, in a landscape	£400,000–£600,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
14	Frans Hals	Portrait of Verdonck brandishing a jawbone	£800,000–£1,200,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
15	Hendrick Ter Brugghen	A singing boy playing a stringed instrument	£200,000–£300,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
16	Rembrandt Harmensz Van Rijn	Saint John on Patmos, half-length, his folded hands resting on the cover of a book, a palm tree behind him and his emblem of an eagle to the right, his head based on the features of Titus van Rijn	£5,000,000–£7,000,000	90%	artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=1,008	sold
17	Salomon Van Ruysdael	An estuary scene with smalschips on a broad reach before a gentle breeze	£400,000–£600,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
18	Willem van de Velde the Elder	Dutch shipping under way in a moderate breeze from the anchorage off Vlieland	£1,200,000–£1,800,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	unsold or withdrawn
19	David Teniers the Younger	Village landscape with herdsmen, a milkmaid, cattle, sheep and a dog, a city beyond	£80,000–£120,000	87%	estimate 2.8× the artist's median hammer	sold
20	Anglo-Dutch School, third quarter of the 17th century	Still life with a theorbo, a glove, a sash, a sword, books and a print of Inigo Jones (1573–1652)	£80,000–£120,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
21	Simon Luttichuys	Still life with a façon de Venise wine glass, a bread roll, an oyster and a chestnut in a pewter dish, resting on a table	£70,000–£100,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
22	Balthasar Van Der Ast	A still life of shells, with a wasp and a caterpillar on a stone ledge; A still life with a variagated tulip, a sprig of of bluebells and a shell on a stone ledge with a fly and a butterfly	£100,000–£150,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
23	Osias Beert the Elder	Still life with tulips in a glass vase, with cyclamen and anemone	£100,000–£150,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	unsold or withdrawn
24	Eglon Hendrik Van Der Neer	Two boys with a mousetrap and a cat at a window	£80,000–£120,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
25	Alexandre-françois Desportes	Still life with a dog and a cat in a garden landscape with game, flowers, a bunch of asparagus, a wicker basket of peaches and a blue and white porcelain bowl of wild strawberries	£200,000–£300,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
26	Jean-Baptiste Pater	A military encampment with troops at rest (La Paix); The departure of the troops (La Guerre)	£150,000–£200,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
27	Gaetano Gandolfi	The Judgement of Paris	£100,000–£150,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
29	Joseph Mallord William Turner Ra	Venus and Adonis (Adonis Departing for the Chase)	£400,000–£600,000	91%	artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=111	sold
30	Raden Saleh	A roebuck	£100,000–£150,000	89%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
31	Ivan Konstantinovich Aivazovsky	Heavy Seas	£500,000–£800,000	89%	estimate 8.8× the artist's median hammer	sold

Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.

Method and citation

What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Sotheby's, Old Master & 19th Century Paintings Evening Auction, 3 December 2025", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/26882. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.

Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.