Retrospective · Sotheby's scored
Modern & Contemporary Evening Auction
Sotheby's, London · 4 March 2026 · sale page ↗. Retrospective — scored after the sale on the results as recorded; lots withdrawn before the sale are not in the record; the model that scored it was trained on data through 2025-09-15, before this sale.
Result scored 2026-09-16 · final
Forecast 89% (range 79–100%). Result 100%: 53 of 53 scored lots sold, 0 unsold or withdrawn. Outside the range, 10 pts above the forecast.
Ten lowest-scored lots: 0 of 10 unsold vs 0 of 43 others (the model expected about 1 of the ten unsold).
Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →
89% range 79–100%expected sell-through by lotof the 53 lots with a printed estimate
90%by low-estimate valueof $128M low estimate (USD; sale currency GBP)
47 42–53expected soldof 53 scored lots
0unscoredno printed estimate
2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots
Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.
Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 53 scored lots
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate | Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 46 | Emil Nolde | Das Meer VI (The Sea VI) | £1,000,000–£1,500,000 | 80% | sold |
| 15 | El Anatsui | G6 | £800,000–£1,200,000 | 83% | sold |
| 38 | Edgar Degas | Scène de ballet | £2,500,000–£3,500,000 | 86% | sold |
| 52 | Edgar Degas | Deux danseuses | £800,000–£1,200,000 | 86% | sold |
| 54 | Henry Moore | Two Women Winding Wool | £300,000–£500,000 | 86% | sold |
| 16 | Leon Kossoff | Children’s Swimming Pool, 11 o’clock Saturday Morning, August | £600,000–£800,000 | 86% | sold |
| 48 | Beatriz Milhazes | Goa | £600,000–£800,000 | 87% | sold |
| 11 | Edvard Munch | Hus i Kragerø (Houses in Kragerø) | £1,500,000–£2,000,000 | 87% | sold |
| 29 | Sam Francis | White No. 1 | £600,000–£800,000 | 87% | sold |
| 53 | Edvard Munch | Anton Brünings | £350,000–£500,000 | 87% | sold |
In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.
By estimate band low estimate in USD
| Band | Lots | Expected | Low estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| $50k+ | 53 | 89% | $128M |
Context evening sales at Sotheby's, trailing year
Over the year before the sale (2025-03-04 to 2026-03-03), Sotheby's sold 89% of the 685 lots with a recorded outcome in its 18 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.
Every scored lot 53 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most
Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 88%, n=534,208 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · March sales clear 73%, n=432,955 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate GBP | Probability | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Josef Albers | Study for Homage to the Square: Gobelin | £400,000–£600,000 | 93% | artist clears 90% at panel houses, n=709 | sold |
| 2 | Andy Warhol | Dollar Sign | £300,000–£400,000 | 90% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=5,598 | sold |
| 3 | Andy Warhol | Flowers | £800,000–£1,200,000 | 90% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=5,598 | sold |
| 4 | René Magritte | L'Automate | £1,000,000–£1,500,000 | 93% | artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=342 | sold |
| 5 | Piero Manzoni | Achrome | £350,000–£450,000 | 89% | estimate 6.4× the artist's median hammer | sold |
| 6 | Andy Warhol | Four Marilyns (Reversal Series) | £1,800,000–£2,500,000 | 90% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=5,598 | sold |
| 7 | Pierre Soulages | Peinture 130 x 81 cm, 1er oct 2006 | £400,000–£600,000 | 90% | estimate 89× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 8 | Donald Judd | Untitled | £400,000–£600,000 | 92% | artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=476 | sold |
| 9 | Anthony Gormley | Clutch II | £200,000–£300,000 | 93% | artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=256 | sold |
| 10 | Fernand Léger | Les Hommes dans la ville | £4,000,000–£6,000,000 | 88% | estimate 669× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 11 | Edvard Munch | Hus i Kragerø (Houses in Kragerø) | £1,500,000–£2,000,000 | 87% | estimate 293× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 12 | Claude Monet | Maison de jardinier | £6,500,000–£8,500,000 | 94% | artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=157 | sold |
| 13 | Constantin Brancusi | Une Muse | £2,000,000–£3,000,000 | 88% | estimate 179× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 14 | Sean Scully | Tappan Deep Brown Blue | £600,000–£800,000 | 90% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=322 | sold |
| 15 | El Anatsui | G6 | £800,000–£1,200,000 | 83% | estimate 39× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 16 | Leon Kossoff | Children’s Swimming Pool, 11 o’clock Saturday Morning, August | £600,000–£800,000 | 86% | estimate 10× the artist's median hammer | sold |
| 17 | Lucian Freud | A Young Painter | £4,000,000–£6,000,000 | 88% | estimate 417× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 18 | Francis Bacon | Self-Portrait | £8,000,000–£12,000,000 | 92% | artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=339 | sold |
| 19 | Lucian Freud | Blond Girl on a Bed | £6,000,000–£8,000,000 | 88% | estimate 584× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 20 | Frank Auerbach | Study for Tree on Primrose Hill | £400,000–£600,000 | 89% | estimate 30× the artist's median hammer | sold |
| 21 | David Hockney | English Garden | £2,500,000–£3,500,000 | 93% | artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=2,584 | sold |
| 22 | Bridget Riley | Four Colours with Orange | £700,000–£1,000,000 | 93% | artist clears 90% at panel houses, n=443 | sold |
| 23 | Lucio Fontana | Concetto spaziale, Attesa | £1,500,000–£2,000,000 | 91% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=649 | sold |
| 24 | Lucio Fontana | Concetto spaziale, Natura | £1,200,000–£1,800,000 | 91% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=649 | sold |
| 25 | Alberto Giacometti | Femme debout | £2,200,000–£2,800,000 | 91% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=543 | sold |
| 26 | Lucio Fontana | Concetto spaziale | £8,500,000–£12,000,000 | 91% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=649 | sold |
| 27 | Lucio Fontana | Concetto spaziale, Teatrino | £350,000–£450,000 | 92% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=649 | sold |
| 28 | Lucio Fontana | Concetto spaziale | £700,000–£1,000,000 | 91% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=649 | sold |
| 29 | Sam Francis | White No. 1 | £600,000–£800,000 | 87% | estimate 268× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 30 | Roy Lichtenstein | Imperfect Painting | £1,000,000–£1,500,000 | 92% | artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,963 | sold |
| 31 | Andy Warhol | Marilyn (Reversal Series) | £800,000–£1,200,000 | 90% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=5,598 | sold |
| 32 | Jean-Michel Basquiat | Thin in the Old | £6,000,000–£8,000,000 | 90% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=407 | sold |
| 33 | Andy Warhol | Hammer and Sickle | £3,000,000–£5,000,000 | 90% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=5,598 | sold |
| 34 | George Condo | Infiltration | £1,500,000–£2,000,000 | 90% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=740 | sold |
| 35 | Mark Bradford | The Fairy Gave Him the Sugar | £1,800,000–£2,500,000 | 89% | estimate 206× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 37 | Paul Signac | Marseille. Le Port | £4,000,000–£6,000,000 | 92% | artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=250 | sold |
| 38 | Edgar Degas | Scène de ballet | £2,500,000–£3,500,000 | 86% | estimate 127× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 39 | René Magritte | Le Buste impassible | £4,500,000–£6,500,000 | 93% | artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=342 | sold |
| 40 | Pablo Picasso | Tête de femme (Françoise) | £1,200,000–£1,800,000 | 91% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=9,299 | sold |
| 41 | Glenn Brown | The Hurdy-Gurdy | £450,000–£650,000 | 89% | artist clears 68% at panel houses, n=58 | sold |
| 42 | Tracey Emin | Spending time with you | £500,000–£700,000 | 91% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=657 | sold |
| 43 | Edvard Munch | Solskinnsdag i Åsgårdstrand (Sunny Day in Åsgårdstrand) | £450,000–£650,000 | 87% | estimate 92× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 44 | Vilhelm Hammershøi | The Balcony, Spurveskjul | £1,500,000–£2,000,000 | 90% | sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208 | sold |
| 45 | Barbara Hepworth | Three Obliques (Walk in) | £3,500,000–£4,500,000 | 91% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=137 | sold |
| 46 | Emil Nolde | Das Meer VI (The Sea VI) | £1,000,000–£1,500,000 | 80% | estimate 38× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 47 | Fernand Léger | Composition à la plante verte, premier état | £500,000–£700,000 | 87% | estimate 80× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 48 | Beatriz Milhazes | Goa | £600,000–£800,000 | 87% | estimate 52× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 49 | Anselm Kiefer | Für Velimir Chlebnikov: Lehre vom Krieg: Seeschlachten | £400,000–£600,000 | 91% | artist clears 81% at panel houses, n=171 | sold |
| 50 | Andreas Gursky | Kuwait Stock Exchange I | £400,000–£600,000 | 88% | estimate 12× the artist's median hammer | sold |
| 51 | Damien Hirst | Love Affair | £300,000–£400,000 | 89% | estimate 93× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 52 | Edgar Degas | Deux danseuses | £800,000–£1,200,000 | 86% | estimate 42× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 53 | Edvard Munch | Anton Brünings | £350,000–£500,000 | 87% | estimate 71× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 54 | Henry Moore | Two Women Winding Wool | £300,000–£500,000 | 86% | estimate 392× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.
Method and citation
- What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
- The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
- Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
- Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
- Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Sotheby's, Modern & Contemporary Evening Auction, 4 March 2026", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/26988. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.
Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.