Result scored 2026-09-16 · final

Forecast 91% (range 81–100%). Result 100%: 54 of 54 scored lots sold, 0 unsold or withdrawn. Inside the range, 9 pts above the forecast.

Ten lowest-scored lots: 0 of 10 unsold vs 0 of 44 others (the model expected about 1 of the ten unsold).

Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →

91% range 81–100%expected sell-through by lotof the 54 lots with a printed estimate

92%by low-estimate valueof $45M low estimate (USD; sale currency HKD)

49 44–54expected soldof 54 scored lots

0unscoredno printed estimate

2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots

Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.

Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 54 scored lots

Lot	Artist	Work	Estimate	Probability	Result
53	Zhang Xiaogang	Bloodline: Yellow Baby Girl 血緣：黃色女嬰	HK$3,000,000–HK$5,000,000	86%	sold
51	Keith Haring	Untitled 無題	HK$14,000,000–HK$20,000,000	87%	sold
19	Giorgio Morandi	Natura morta 靜物	HK$2,500,000–HK$4,500,000	87%	sold
39	Paul Cézanne	Rochers 岩石	HK$3,000,000–HK$5,000,000	87%	sold
44	Léonard Tsuguharu Foujita	Portrait de jeune femme 年輕女子肖像	HK$1,200,000–HK$2,000,000	89%	sold
42	Henri Matisse	Jeune fille en noir 黑衣少女	HK$7,000,000–HK$9,000,000	89%	sold
7	Hans Hartung	T1962-L38	HK$1,800,000–HK$2,800,000	90%	sold
12	—	A 'Qilian' scholar's rock, Ming - Qing dynasty \| 明至清祁連石供	HK$280,000–HK$350,000	90%	sold
3	—	A large 'Lingbi' scholar's rock, Ming - Qing dynasty \| 明至清靈璧石供	HK$900,000–HK$1,200,000	90%	sold
23	—	A 'Lingbi' scholar's rock, Ming - Qing dynasty \| 明至清靈璧石供	HK$300,000–HK$400,000	90%	sold

In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.

By estimate band low estimate in USD

Band	Lots	Expected	Low estimate
$15k–50k	5	90%	$157K
$50k+	49	91%	$45M

Context evening sales at Sotheby's, trailing year

Over the year before the sale (2025-03-29 to 2026-03-28), Sotheby's sold 90% of the 701 lots with a recorded outcome in its 18 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.

Every scored lot 54 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most

Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 88%, n=534,208 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · March sales clear 73%, n=432,955 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.

Lot	Artist	Work	Estimate HKD	Probability	Why	Result
1	Huma Bhabha	Constantium 持續	HK$1,200,000–HK$1,800,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
2	Kim Lim	Relief Sculpture 浮雕	HK$1,000,000–HK$1,500,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
3	—	A large 'Lingbi' scholar's rock, Ming - Qing dynasty \| 明至清靈璧石供	HK$900,000–HK$1,200,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
4	—	Tracery Section from the Nave of York Minster England, York, York Minster \| 約克大教堂中殿窗櫺部分英格蘭，約克，約克大教堂	HK$500,000–HK$700,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
5	Zao Wou-ki	Nuage 雲	HK$30,000,000–HK$50,000,000	91%	artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=690	sold
6	—	Lalan 謝景蘭 \| Untitled 無題	HK$1,000,000–HK$2,000,000	91%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
7	Hans Hartung	T1962-L38	HK$1,800,000–HK$2,800,000	90%	estimate 279× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
8	Lee Ufan	From Line No. 780224 從線 780224	HK$4,000,000–HK$6,000,000	92%	artist clears 81% at panel houses, n=100	sold
9	Zao Wou-ki	Terre rouge – 16.01.2005 紅色大地 - 16.01.2005	HK$20,000,000–HK$40,000,000	91%	artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=690	sold
10	Lucy Bull	22:14	HK$3,500,000–HK$5,500,000	93%	artist clears 79% at panel houses, n=48	sold
11	—	A white-glazed moon jar, Joseon period, 18th century \| 朝鮮王朝十八世紀白瓷月亮罐	HK$800,000–HK$1,800,000	91%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
12	—	A 'Qilian' scholar's rock, Ming - Qing dynasty \| 明至清祁連石供	HK$280,000–HK$350,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
13	—	Kameda Bōsai (1752-1826) 龜田鵬齋｜Poems in Cursive Script 草書絕句兩首	HK$200,000–HK$400,000	91%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
14	Georges Mathieu	La passion retrouvée 復熾之激情	HK$1,200,000–HK$2,200,000	92%	artist clears 82% at panel houses, n=223	sold
15	Joan Mitchell	La Grande Vallée VII 大峽谷（第七號）	HK$110,000,000–HK$300,000,000	94%	artist clears 90% at panel houses, n=265	sold
16	Park Seo-bo	Ecriture No 37-74 描法 NO. 37－74	HK$2,500,000–HK$3,500,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
17	Rhee Seundja	無題 Untitled	HK$2,000,000–HK$3,000,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
18	—	An Amamori kohiki vase, Joseon dynasty, 15th-16th century \| 朝鮮王朝十五至十六世紀粉引扁壺	HK$2,800,000–HK$4,800,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
19	Giorgio Morandi	Natura morta 靜物	HK$2,500,000–HK$4,500,000	87%	estimate 58× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
20	Mark Rothko	No. 10 10號	HK$28,000,000–HK$40,000,000	93%	artist clears 82% at panel houses, n=42	sold
21	Sanyu	Beijing Circus 北京馬戲	HK$28,000,000–HK$40,000,000	92%	artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=182	sold
22	Eugène Carrière	Caresse 撫摸	HK$1,000,000–HK$1,400,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
23	—	A 'Lingbi' scholar's rock, Ming - Qing dynasty \| 明至清靈璧石供	HK$300,000–HK$400,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
26	—	A Fragmentary Roman Marble Portrait Head of a Youth, 1st/2nd Century A.D. \| 西元1或2世紀中期左右，羅馬大理石青年頭像殘片	HK$250,000–HK$350,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
27	—	Tracery Section from the Nave of York Minster, England, York \| 約克大教堂中殿窗櫺部分英格蘭，約克	HK$500,000–HK$700,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
29	Yayoi Kusama	Pumpkin 南瓜	HK$40,000,000–HK$60,000,000	93%	artist clears 90% at panel houses, n=1,350	sold
30	Matthew Wong	The Island 島嶼	HK$3,200,000–HK$5,000,000	95%	artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=63	sold
32	Imazu Kei	Kei Imazu 今津景 \| Wooo	HK$1,400,000–HK$3,500,000	91%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
33	Danh Vo	We The People 我們人民	HK$600,000–HK$800,000	90%	artist clears 73% at panel houses, n=66	sold
34	Ugo Rondinone	The Lucid 清醒的人	HK$1,000,000–HK$1,500,000	92%	artist clears 83% at panel houses, n=229	sold
35	—	A 'Lingbi' scholar's rock, Ming - Qing dynasty \| 明至清靈璧石供	HK$200,000–HK$400,000	91%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
36	—	David Hockney 大衛 · 霍克尼 \| The Arrival of Spring in Woldgate, East Yorkshire in 2011 (twenty eleven) - 16 May 東約克郡沃蓋特的春臨（2011年）- 5月16日	HK$800,000–HK$1,200,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
37	David Hockney	The Arrival of Spring in Woldgate, East Yorkshire in 2011 (twenty eleven) - 17 April 東約克郡沃蓋特的春臨（2011年）- 4月17日	HK$1,000,000–HK$1,500,000	93%	artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=2,584	sold
38	David Hockney	The Arrival of Spring in Woldgate, East Yorkshire in 2011 (twenty eleven) - 18 March 東約克郡沃蓋特的春臨（2011年）- 3月18日	HK$1,200,000–HK$1,800,000	93%	artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=2,584	sold
39	Paul Cézanne	Rochers 岩石	HK$3,000,000–HK$5,000,000	87%	estimate 76× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
40	Kim Whan-ki	Kim Whanki 金煥基 \| Untitled 無題	HK$2,000,000–HK$3,000,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
41	Wu Guanzhong	Red lotus flowers 紅蓮	HK$2,400,000–HK$6,000,000	95%	artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=266	sold
42	Henri Matisse	Jeune fille en noir 黑衣少女	HK$7,000,000–HK$9,000,000	89%	estimate 186× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
43	Zenzaburo Kojima	Nude 裸女	HK$1,000,000–HK$2,000,000	91%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
44	Léonard Tsuguharu Foujita	Portrait de jeune femme 年輕女子肖像	HK$1,200,000–HK$2,000,000	89%	estimate 29× the artist's median hammer	sold
45	Mai Trung Thu	La jeune femme de Hué 順化少女	HK$3,000,000–HK$4,000,000	92%	artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=151	sold
46	Le Pho	The three bathers 三位浴者	HK$4,800,000–HK$6,800,000	94%	artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=458	sold
47	Mai Trung Thu	Le petit cours d’eau, la baignade 小溪，沐浴	HK$4,200,000–HK$5,000,000	92%	artist clears 89% at panel houses, n=151	sold
48	Adrien-jean Le Mayeur De Merprès	Adrien-Jean Le Mayeur de Merpres 勒邁耶 \| Two women in Balinese interior 峇厘室內的兩位女子	HK$1,500,000–HK$3,000,000	91%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
49	Hernan Bas	Stumped 難題	HK$2,200,000–HK$4,000,000	90%	estimate 36× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
50	Matthew Wong	Untitled 無題	HK$4,500,000–HK$6,500,000	95%	artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=63	sold
51	Keith Haring	Untitled 無題	HK$14,000,000–HK$20,000,000	87%	estimate 434× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
52	Yang Fudong	The First Intellectual (Set of Three) 第一個知識分子（一組三幅）	HK$1,000,000–HK$1,500,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
53	Zhang Xiaogang	Bloodline: Yellow Baby Girl 血緣：黃色女嬰	HK$3,000,000–HK$5,000,000	86%	estimate 164× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×)	sold
55	Yu Nishimura	bug 蟲	HK$500,000–HK$700,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
56	—	Fan Yang-Tsung 范揚宗 \| Swimming Pool Series - Public pool 泳池系列— 公共泳池	HK$700,000–HK$1,200,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
57	—	Li Hei Di 李黑地 \| The Reservoir of Understanding 理解的水庫	HK$500,000–HK$700,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
58	Duan Jianyu	Art Chicken No. 5 藝術雞5號	HK$1,000,000–HK$2,000,000	91%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold
59	—	Tang Yongxiang 唐永祥 \| A Flock of Pigeons with a Duck Among Them 一群鴿子中間有隻鴨子	HK$500,000–HK$700,000	90%	sits at the house rate of 88%, n=534,208	sold

Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.

Method and citation

What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Sotheby's, Modern & Contemporary Evening Auction, 29 March 2026", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/27024. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.

Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.