Retrospective · Bonhams scored
20th & 21st Century Art Evening Sale
Bonhams, New York · 20 May 2026 · sale page ↗. Retrospective — scored after the sale on the results as recorded; lots withdrawn before the sale are not in the record; the model that scored it was trained on data through 2025-09-15, before this sale.
Result scored 2026-09-16 · final
Forecast 76% (range 56–96%). Result 96%: 26 of 27 scored lots sold, 1 unsold or withdrawn. Outside the range, 20 pts above the forecast.
Ten lowest-scored lots: 1 of 10 unsold vs 0 of 17 others (the model expected about 3 of the ten unsold).
Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →
76% range 56–96%expected sell-through by lotof the 27 lots with a printed estimate
76%by low-estimate valueof $14M low estimate
20 15–26expected soldof 27 scored lots
0unscoredno printed estimate
2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots
Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.
Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 27 scored lots
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate | Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 26A | Oskar Kokoschka | Stillleben mit Sonnenblumen und Faunskopf (Still Life with Sunflowers and Faun's Head) | $180,000–$250,000 | 65% | sold |
| 7A | Robert Cottingham | 20th Century Fox | $150,000–$250,000 | 65% | sold |
| 23A | Pierre Bonnard | La Famille (Conception pour un éventail) | $100,000–$150,000 | 65% | sold |
| 15A | Larry Rivers | Beyond Camel | $250,000–$350,000 | 66% | unsold or withdrawn |
| 4A | Henry Moore | Working Model for Animal Form | $250,000–$350,000 | 68% | sold |
| 20A | Paul Gauguin | Route de Rouen | $300,000–$500,000 | 68% | sold |
| 14A | James Rosenquist | Vanity Unfair for Gordon Matta-Clark | $300,000–$500,000 | 70% | sold |
| 5A | Constantin Brancusi | La Muse endormie II | $3,000,000–$5,000,000 | 73% | sold |
| 18A | Jacob Lawrence | Two Comedians and a Dancer | $400,000–$600,000 | 74% | sold |
| 12A | John Chamberlain | Murmurous Moto, Maestro | $800,000–$1,200,000 | 74% | sold |
In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.
By estimate band low estimate in USD
| Band | Lots | Expected | Low estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| $15k–50k | 3 | 82% | $85K |
| $50k+ | 24 | 75% | $14M |
Context evening sales at Bonhams, trailing year
Over the year before the sale (2025-05-20 to 2026-05-19), Bonhams sold 87% of the 54 lots with a recorded outcome in its 3 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.
Every scored lot 27 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most
Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 73%, n=876,470 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · May sales clear 72%, n=503,659 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate USD | Probability | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | Olga De Amaral | Imagen perdida 35 | $300,000–$500,000 | 79% | artist clears 81% at panel houses, n=76 | sold |
| 2A | Jadé Fadojutimi | Ribbon of Thought | $150,000–$250,000 | 85% | artist clears 84% at panel houses, n=83 | sold |
| 3A | Roni Horn | Untitled ("Peacocks not only eat flowers; they eat them systematically, beginning at the head of a row and going down it. If they are not hungry, they will pick the flower anyway and let it drop. For general eating, they prefer chrysanthemums and roses.") | $500,000–$700,000 | 82% | artist clears 79% at panel houses, n=112 | sold |
| 4A | Henry Moore | Working Model for Animal Form | $250,000–$350,000 | 68% | estimate 220× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 5A | Constantin Brancusi | La Muse endormie II | $3,000,000–$5,000,000 | 73% | estimate 214× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 6A | René Magritte | Le miroir vivant | $1,000,000–$1,500,000 | 83% | artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=342 | sold |
| 7A | Robert Cottingham | 20th Century Fox | $150,000–$250,000 | 65% | estimate 182× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 8A | Ed Ruscha | Streaks of Oil | $300,000–$500,000 | 76% | estimate 67× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 9A | Yoshitomo Nara | ...Words Mean Nothing at All | $4,000,000–$6,000,000 | 79% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=996 | sold |
| 10A | Banksy | Girl and Balloon | $700,000–$1,000,000 | 79% | artist clears 88% at panel houses, n=1,424 | sold |
| 11A | Lynette Yiadom-boakye | Victory Sweatsuit II | $350,000–$550,000 | 86% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=64 | sold |
| 12A | John Chamberlain | Murmurous Moto, Maestro | $800,000–$1,200,000 | 74% | estimate 50× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 13A | Damien Hirst | Au-195m | $600,000–$800,000 | 75% | estimate 139× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 14A | James Rosenquist | Vanity Unfair for Gordon Matta-Clark | $300,000–$500,000 | 70% | estimate 364× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 15A | Larry Rivers | Beyond Camel | $250,000–$350,000 | 66% | estimate 150× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | unsold or withdrawn |
| 16A | Jim Nutt | Untitled | $150,000–$250,000 | 77% | sits at the house rate of 73%, n=876,470 | sold |
| 17A | Friedel Dzubas | Sacrum | $100,000–$150,000 | 81% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=120 | sold |
| 18A | Jacob Lawrence | Two Comedians and a Dancer | $400,000–$600,000 | 74% | estimate 125× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 19A | Camille Pissarro | Le Retour au village au clair de lune (Eragny) | $150,000–$200,000 | 75% | estimate 18× the artist's median hammer | sold |
| 20A | Paul Gauguin | Route de Rouen | $300,000–$500,000 | 68% | estimate 67× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 21A | Camille Pissarro | Berger et bergère à la barrière, Bazincourt | $120,000–$180,000 | 76% | estimate 15× the artist's median hammer | sold |
| 22A | Camille Pissarro | Etude pour Le Repos des moissonneurs | $50,000–$70,000 | 79% | artist clears 82% at panel houses, n=365 | sold |
| 23A | Pierre Bonnard | La Famille (Conception pour un éventail) | $100,000–$150,000 | 65% | estimate 42× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 24A | Camille Pissarro | Éragny | $25,000–$35,000 | 81% | artist clears 82% at panel houses, n=365 | sold |
| 25A | Camille Pissarro | Etude d'oies au bord d'un étang (recto); Etude de lavandières au bord d'un fleuve (verso) | $20,000–$30,000 | 82% | artist clears 82% at panel houses, n=365 | sold |
| 26A | Oskar Kokoschka | Stillleben mit Sonnenblumen und Faunskopf (Still Life with Sunflowers and Faun's Head) | $180,000–$250,000 | 65% | estimate 287× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 27A | Auguste Rodin | Main crispée droite, taille originale ou petit modèle dit aussi 'Main griffe' | $40,000–$60,000 | 83% | artist clears 84% at panel houses, n=433 | sold |
Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.
Method and citation
- What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
- The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
- Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
- Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
- Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Bonhams, 20th & 21st Century Art Evening Sale, 20 May 2026", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/380. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.
Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.