Retrospective · VAN HAM Kunstauktionen GmbH Co. KG scored
Auction 541 Part 1 Evening Sale, Modern, Post War & Contemporary
VAN HAM Kunstauktionen GmbH Co. KG, Hitzelerstr. 2, 50968 Köln, Germany · 3 December 2025 · sale page ↗. Retrospective — scored after the sale on the results as recorded; lots withdrawn before the sale are not in the record; the model that scored it was trained on data through 2025-09-15, before this sale.
Result scored 2026-09-16 · final
Forecast 69% (range 55–83%). Result 58%: 38 of 65 scored lots sold, 27 unsold or withdrawn. Inside the range, 10 pts below the forecast.
Ten lowest-scored lots: 6 of 10 unsold vs 21 of 55 others (the model expected about 3 of the ten unsold).
Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →
69% range 55–83%expected sell-through by lotof the 65 lots with a printed estimate
69%by low-estimate valueof $8.9M low estimate (USD; sale currency EUR)
45 36–54expected soldof 65 scored lots
0unscoredno printed estimate
2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots
Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.
Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 65 scored lots
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate | Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 42 | — | Peter Doig: "Study for Telemarker" | €70,000–€90,000 | 68% | unsold or withdrawn |
| 6 | — | Ewald Mataré: Grasende Kuh II | €60,000–€80,000 | 68% | sold |
| 9 | — | Käthe Kollwitz: Drei Studien einer Arbeiterfrau | €60,000–€80,000 | 68% | unsold or withdrawn |
| 16 | — | Paul Klee: "Festlich" | €150,000–€200,000 | 68% | sold |
| 20 | — | Tony Cragg: Curl | €60,000–€80,000 | 68% | sold |
| 24 | — | Heinz Mack: Licht-Stufen | €60,000–€80,000 | 68% | unsold or withdrawn |
| 26 | — | Jan Schoonhoven: "R69-2" | €150,000–€200,000 | 68% | unsold or withdrawn |
| 29 | — | Günther Uecker: "Lichtkasten" | €180,000–€240,000 | 68% | sold |
| 35 | — | Gerhard Richter: September | €60,000–€80,000 | 68% | unsold or withdrawn |
| 50 | — | William Turnbull: Metamorphic Venus | €60,000–€80,000 | 68% | unsold or withdrawn |
In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.
By estimate band low estimate in USD
| Band | Lots | Expected | Low estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| $15k–50k | 7 | 69% | $303K |
| $50k+ | 58 | 69% | $8.6M |
Context evening sales at VAN HAM Kunstauktionen GmbH Co. KG, trailing year
No evening sale at VAN HAM Kunstauktionen GmbH Co. KG with recorded outcomes falls inside the reporting panel in the year before the sale, so there is no trailing record to set beside the forecast.
Every scored lot 65 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most
Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 66%, n=8,480 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · December sales clear 70%, n=454,780 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate EUR | Probability | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | — | Alexej Jawlensky: Blick auf Murnau | €200,000–€300,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 2 | — | Ewald Mataré: Liegende Kuh mit erhobenem Kopf | €80,000–€120,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | sold |
| 3 | — | Emil Nolde: Marschlandschaft mit Bauernhof und Abendhimmel | €80,000–€120,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | sold |
| 4 | — | Hermann Max Pechstein: Dorfhäuser | €300,000–€500,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 5 | — | Emil Nolde: Meer (blau-violett mit orange-farbenen Wolken) | €80,000–€120,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | sold |
| 6 | — | Ewald Mataré: Grasende Kuh II | €60,000–€80,000 | 68% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | sold |
| 7 | — | Hermann Max Pechstein: Der Jüngling | €220,000–€320,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | sold |
| 8 | — | Käthe Kollwitz: Pietà (Mutter mit totem Sohn) | €50,000–€70,000 | 68% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 9 | — | Käthe Kollwitz: Drei Studien einer Arbeiterfrau | €60,000–€80,000 | 68% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 10 | — | August Macke: "Composition II" (Susanna im Bade) | €40,000–€60,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 11 | — | Ernst Barlach: Der singende Mann | €200,000–€300,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | sold |
| 12 | — | Felix Nussbaum: Stillleben mit Maske und Pullover | €100,000–€150,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | sold |
| 13 | — | Raoul Dufy: L'Orchestre | €100,000–€150,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 14 | — | Johannes Molzahn: "Konstellation um Vier" | €40,000–€60,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 15 | — | Carl Grossberg: Festung Marienberg bei Würzburg | €70,000–€100,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | sold |
| 16 | — | Paul Klee: "Festlich" | €150,000–€200,000 | 68% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | sold |
| 17 | — | Ernst Wilhelm Nay: "Der Jäger" | €50,000–€70,000 | 68% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | sold |
| 18 | — | Friedensreich Hundertwasser: Stark fortgeschrittene Genesis | €80,000–€120,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | sold |
| 19 | — | Tschang-Yeul Kim: Untitled (Wassertropfen) | €50,000–€70,000 | 68% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | sold |
| 20 | — | Tony Cragg: Curl | €60,000–€80,000 | 68% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | sold |
| 21 | — | Ulrich Rückriem: Vier Jahreszeiten | €40,000–€60,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | sold |
| 22 | — | Emil Schumacher: "Ablon" | €50,000–€70,000 | 68% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 23 | — | Hann Trier: "Keltern" | €45,000–€65,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | sold |
| 24 | — | Heinz Mack: Licht-Stufen | €60,000–€80,000 | 68% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 25 | — | Heinz Mack: "Dynamische Struktur schwarz und braun" (Herbstblätter) | €80,000–€120,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 26 | — | Jan Schoonhoven: "R69-2" | €150,000–€200,000 | 68% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 27 | — | Günther Uecker: "Spirale" | €300,000–€500,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | sold |
| 28 | — | Heinz Mack: Chromatische Konstellation | €120,000–€180,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | sold |
| 29 | — | Günther Uecker: "Lichtkasten" | €180,000–€240,000 | 68% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | sold |
| 30 | — | Josef Albers: Study for Homage to the Square "Morning Sight" | €300,000–€500,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | sold |
| 31 | — | Gerhard Richter: Strip (3817) | €50,000–€70,000 | 68% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | sold |
| 32 | — | Gerhard Richter: Vorhang | €70,000–€100,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | sold |
| 33 | — | Gerhard Richter: Farbfelder. 6 Anordnungen von 1260 Farben | €80,000–€120,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | sold |
| 34 | — | Gerhard Richter: Mustangs | €120,000–€180,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 35 | — | Gerhard Richter: September | €60,000–€80,000 | 68% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 36 | — | Gerhard Richter: Vermalung (grau) | €30,000–€50,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 37 | — | Gerhard Richter: Goldberg-Variationen | €40,000–€60,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | sold |
| 38 | — | Gerhard Richter: Sieben zwei vier | €30,000–€50,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | sold |
| 39 | — | Katharina Grosse: Untitled | €80,000–€120,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | sold |
| 40 | — | Peter Doig: "Camp Forestia" | €400,000–€600,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 41 | — | Peter Doig: "Study for Camp Forestia I" | €250,000–€350,000 | 68% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 42 | — | Peter Doig: "Study for Telemarker" | €70,000–€90,000 | 68% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 43 | — | Thomas Struth: "Paradise 20 (Bayrischer Wald)" | €40,000–€60,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 44 | — | Karin Kneffel: G III | €120,000–€180,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 45 | — | Karin Kneffel: Hühnerhof | €80,000–€120,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 46 | — | SALVO (Salvatore Mangione): "Capriccio" | €50,000–€70,000 | 68% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | sold |
| 47 | — | Magdalena Abakanowicz: "Ptak-Da" (Vogel) | €70,000–€100,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | sold |
| 48 | — | Anselm Kiefer: Berenice | €50,000–€70,000 | 68% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 49 | — | A.R. Penck: "The Future of the Soldier" | €100,000–€150,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | sold |
| 50 | — | William Turnbull: Metamorphic Venus | €60,000–€80,000 | 68% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 51 | — | Bridget Louise Riley: Untitled (Work Drawing) | €50,000–€70,000 | 68% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | sold |
| 52 | — | Frank Stella: The Dying Whale (Incorporating The Hat, The Specksynder and The Glider) | €300,000–€500,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | sold |
| 53 | — | Andy Warhol: Mick Jagger | €80,000–€120,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | sold |
| 54 | — | Andy Warhol: Beethoven | €50,000–€70,000 | 68% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | sold |
| 55 | — | Andy Warhol: Untitled (Floral Still Life) | €100,000–€150,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | sold |
| 56 | — | Andy Warhol: Beautiful Lady | €300,000–€500,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | sold |
| 57 | — | Konrad Klapheck: Die Prüfung | €180,000–€240,000 | 68% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | sold |
| 58 | — | Sam Francis: Untitled | €70,000–€100,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 59 | — | Antoni Tàpies: Red painting | €250,000–€350,000 | 68% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | sold |
| 60 | — | Antoni Tàpies: Hieroglyphics No. LXXIV | €250,000–€350,000 | 68% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | sold |
| 61 | — | Antoni Tàpies: Winding | €50,000–€70,000 | 68% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 62 | — | Jesús Rafael Soto: "Double Blanc" | €180,000–€240,000 | 68% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 63 | — | Otto Piene: Schwarz-Schwarz (Rasterbild) | €120,000–€180,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | sold |
| 64 | — | Otto Piene: Lichtgeist | €70,000–€100,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 65 | — | Yves Klein: Éponge bleue | €350,000–€550,000 | 69% | sits at the house rate of 66%, n=8,480 | unsold or withdrawn |
Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.
Method and citation
- What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
- The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
- Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
- Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
- Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: VAN HAM Kunstauktionen GmbH Co. KG, Auction 541 Part 1 Evening Sale, Modern, Post War & Contemporary, 3 December 2025", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/57813. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.
Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.