Pre-sale forecast · Christie's upcoming
Graziella Patiño de Ortiz Linares Collection - Evening sale
Christie's, Paris · 22 September 2026 · sale page ↗. Issued 16 September 2026, 06:02 UTC; re-issued nightly while the sale is ahead, the sale date included, then frozen.
92% range 83–100%expected sell-through by lotof the 58 lots with a printed estimate
92%by low-estimate valueof $14M low estimate (USD; sale currency EUR)
53 48–58expected soldof 58 scored lots
2unscoredno printed estimate
2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots
Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.
Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 58 scored lots
In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.
By estimate band low estimate in USD
| Band | Lots | Expected | Low estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| $5k–15k | 11 | 91% | $100K |
| $15k–50k | 10 | 92% | $265K |
| $50k+ | 37 | 92% | $13M |
Context evening sales at Christie's, trailing year
Over the year before this card was issued (2025-09-16 to 2026-09-15), Christie's sold 94% of the 641 lots with a recorded outcome in its 17 evening sales in the reporting panel. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.
Every scored lot 58 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most
Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 90%, n=61,982 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · September sales clear 72%, n=393,154 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate EUR | Probability | Why |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Paire De Fauteuils D'époque Régence | Vers 1720 | €10,000–€15,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 2 | Paire De Vases Couverts D'époque Régence | Vers 1720 | €80,000–€120,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 3 | Hubert Robert Paris | La Nef de verdure | €300,000–€400,000 | 86% | estimate 25× the artist's median hammer |
| 4 | MEUBLE À HAUTEUR D'APPUI DU DÉBUT DE L'ÉPOQUE LOUIS XV | Vers 1735 | €150,000–€250,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 5 | PAIRE DE CANDÉLABRES AUX LIONS KARASHISHI D'ÉPOQUE LOUIS XV | Deuxième Quart Du Xviiie Siècle | €200,000–€300,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 6 | Commode D'époque Louis Xvi | Estampille de Mathieu Criaerd, Vers 1745 - 1749 | €150,000–€250,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 7 | PAIRE DE SEAUX À BOUTEILLE D'ÉPOQUE RÉGENCE | Vers 1715 | €70,000–€100,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 8 | Paire D'appliques Royales D'époque Louis Xv | Attribuée À Jacques Caffieri, Livrée À Louise-Élisabeth de France Pour Le Palais de Colorno, Vers 1750 | €150,000–€250,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 9 | Jean-Honoré Fragonard | La Leçon de Luth | €100,000–€150,000 | 94% | artist clears 80% at panel houses, n=42 |
| 10 | RARE AIGUIÈRE ET SON BASSIN EN VERMEIL D'ÉPOQUE LOUIS XIV | Par Nicolas Delaunay, Paris, 1704 | €600,000–€800,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 11 | Paire D'encoignures D'époque Louis Xv | Estampille de Bernard II Van Risenburgh Dit B.v.r.b., Vers 1753 | €250,000–€400,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 12 | Jean-Honoré Fragonard | L’Instant désiré ou Les Amants heureux | €2,500,000–€3,500,000 | 94% | artist clears 80% at panel houses, n=42 |
| 13 | Gabriel De Saint-aubin | Le triomphe de l'Amour sur tous les dieux | €150,000–€250,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 15 | LES QUATRE NÉCESSAIRES EN OR DES ÉLECTEURS DE SAXE | Dresde, Nécessaires No. 1, 2 Et 3 Avant 1741; Nécessaire No. 4 Et Les Coquettiers Par Gebrüder Schrödel, 1800; Apparemment Sans Poinçon; 20 Carat | €200,000–€300,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 16 | SÉRIE DE VINGT-QUATRE ASSIETTES À DESSERT EN VERMEIL D’ÉPOQUE GEORGE III | Par Andrew Fogelberg Et Stephen Gilbert, Londres, 1790 | €20,000–€30,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 17 | SÉRIE DE VINGT-QUATRE ASSIETTES À DESSERT EN VERMEIL D’ÉPOQUE GEORGE III | Par Andrew Fogelberg Et Stephen Gilbert, Londres, 1790 | €20,000–€30,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 18 | SERVICE À DESSERT EN VERMEIL D’ÉPOQUE LOUIS XVI | Par Jean-Louis Dieudonné Outrebon, Paris, 1779 | €15,000–€20,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 19 | SERVICE À DESSERT EN VERMEIL D’ÉPOQUE LOUIS XVI | Par Jacques Henri (Jacob Heinrich) Alberti, Strasbourg, 1783 | €10,000–€15,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 20 | PAIRE DE SALIÈRES DOUBLES EN ARGENT D’ÉPOQUE LOUIS XV | Par François Rigal, Paris, 1729 | €15,000–€25,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 21 | SERVICE À DESSERT EN VERMEIL D’ÉPOQUE LOUIS XVI | Par Nicolas Vial, Paris, 1784 | €7,000–€10,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 22 | Saupoudroir En Argent D’époque Louis Xv | Par Jacques Filassier, Paris, 1729 | €15,000–€25,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 23 | Paire De Flambeaux D'époque Régence | D'après Un Modèle de Corneille Van Clève, Vers 1720 | €100,000–€150,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 24 | Jean-Baptiste Greuze | Portrait d’un jeune garçon | €300,000–€500,000 | 92% | artist clears 73% at panel houses, n=46 |
| 25 | Antoine Watteau | Trois études d'un homme avec ses bras étendus devant lui (recto) ; Homme assis penché vers la droite (verso) | €150,000–€250,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 27 | Antoine Watteau | Nu masculin assis (recto) ; Homme nu en buste, les bras levés (verso) | €80,000–€120,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 28 | BUREAU PLAT ET SON CARTONNIER D'ÉPOQUE LOUIS XIV | Attribués À André-Charles Boulle, Vers 1715 | €400,000–€600,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 29 | FAUTEUIL DE LA FIN DE L'ÉPOQUE LOUIS XIV | Vers 1715 | €8,000–€12,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 30 | Encrier D'époque Louis Xv | Troisième Quart Du Xviiie Siècle | €6,000–€10,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 31 | Antoine | Les Petits danseurs ou La Préparation pour la danse | €1,500,000–€2,500,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 32 | MIROIR À PARECLOSES D'ÉPOQUE RÉGENCE | Attribué À Charles Cressent, Vers 1720 | €100,000–€150,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 33 | EXCEPTIONNEL TAPIS DE LA SAVONNERIE D'ÉPOQUE LOUIS XIII | Probablement Atelier Lourdet, Chaillot, France, Vers 1660-1664 | €1,000,000–€1,500,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 34 | Baccio Della Porta, Dit Fra Bartolomeo | Vue d'une ville italienne (recto-verso) | €600,000–€800,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 35 | Baccio Della Porta, Dit Fra Bartolomeo | Étude d'arbre (recto) ; Paysage vallonné avec quelques maisons italiennes (verso) | €200,000–€300,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 36 | SECRÉTAIRE À ABATTANT D'ÉPOQUE LOUIS XV | Par Jean-François Dubut, Milieu Du Xviiie Siècle | €100,000–€150,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 37 | Pot-pourri D'époque Louis Xv | La Porcelaine Dynastie Qing, Époque Kangxi (1662-1722), Les Bronzes Vers 1760 | €30,000–€50,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 38 | Paire D'appliques D'époque Louis Xv | Milieu Du Xviiie Siècle, Probablement Livrée Par Jacques-François Machart | €20,000–€30,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 39 | Louis-léopold Boilly | La crainte mal fondée (recto); Soldat devant une mère décédée au sol avec son enfant pleurant (verso) | €70,000–€100,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 40 | Louis-léopold Boilly | La Tourterelle chérie | €40,000–€60,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 41 | TABLE À OUVRAGE D'ÉPOQUE LOUIS XV | Estampille de Jean-François Oeben, Vers 1761 - 1763 | €120,000–€180,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 42 | Jean-baptiste Huët | Le Marchand d'Orviétan de Campagne ou La Troupe ambulante des rues de Paris | €7,000–€10,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 43 | Pendule Aux Chinois D'époque Louis Xv | Les Figures Attribuées Aux Frères Martin, Vers 1750 | €80,000–€120,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 44 | PAIRE DE CANDÉLABRES AUX CHINOIS D'ÉPOQUE LOUIS XV | Les Figures Attribuées Aux Frères Martin, Vers 1750 | €70,000–€90,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 45 | Commode D'époque Louis Xvi | Estampille de Mathieu Criaerd, Vers 1740 | €150,000–€250,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 46 | NÉCESSAIRE EN OR, AGATE, VERRE ET CUIVRE D’ÉPOQUE GEORGE III | Attribué À James Cox, Londres, Vers 1770 | €10,000–€15,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 47 | Deux Paires De Chaises D'époque Louis Xv | Estampille de Jean-Baptiste Boulard Et Louis-Charles Carpentier, Milieu Du Xviiie Siècle | €5,000–€8,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 48 | Paire De Pots-pourris De Style Louis Xv | La Laque de La Fin Du Xviie Siècle - Début Du Xviiie Siècle, Les Bronzes de La Seconde Moitié Du Xixe Siècle | €6,000–€8,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 49 | Paire De Chaises Ponteuses D'époque Louis Xvi | Estampille de Pierre Bernard, Dernier Quart Du Xviiie Siècle | €6,000–€8,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 50 | ARMOIRE BIBLIOTHÈQUE DU DÉBUT DE L'ÉPOQUE LOUIS XV | Vers 1730 | €80,000–€120,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 51 | PAIRE DE CHENETS AUX LIONS D'ÉPOQUE LOUIS XV | Vers 1740 | €60,000–€100,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 52 | SUITE DE QUATRE FLAMBEAUX EN ARGENT D'ÉPOQUE LOUIS XIV | Par Pierre Massé, Paris, 1679-1680 | €70,000–€100,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 53 | PAIRE DE FLAMBEAUX CARRÉS, DITS 'À LA FINANCIÈRE', EN VERMEIL D’ÉPOQUE LOUIS XIV | Par Antoine Turpin, Paris, 1687 | €12,000–€18,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 54 | AIGUIÈRE OU BIBERON EN ARGENT D'ÉPOQUE LOUIS XIV | Par Philippe-Auguste Boursin, Paris, 1681 | €70,000–€100,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 55 | SUITE DE QUATRE SALIÈRES EN ARGENT D’ÉPOQUE CHARLES II | Par Christopher Shaw, Londres, 1662 | €15,000–€25,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 56 | Petit Bureau Plat D'époque Régence | Attribué À L'atelier Des Fils D'andré-Charles Boulle, Vers 1720 | €40,000–€60,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 57 | Paire De Bibliothèques Basses D'époque Louis Xv | Signature de Jean-Baptiste Hédouin, Vers 1730-1735 | €100,000–€150,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 58 | Eugène-victor-ferdinand Delacroix | Cheval attaqué par une panthère | €80,000–€120,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 59 | Eugène-victor-ferdinand Delacroix | Soldats orientaux endormis dans un poste de garde | €250,000–€350,000 | 91% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
| 60 | Jean-auguste-dominique Ingres | Jules César | €800,000–€1,200,000 | 92% | sits at the house rate of 90%, n=61,982 |
Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.
Not in the forecast 2 lots carry no printed estimate
2 lots carry no printed estimate (estimate on request) and are not in the forecast. That is common at the top of an evening sale, so the value figure above understates the catalog.
| Lot | Artist | Work |
|---|---|---|
| 14 | LES QUATRE CANDÉLABRES À TROIS LUMIÈRES EN ARGENT DU SERVICE DU ROI DU PORTUGAL DITS "SATTIROS" OU MODÈLE No 51 | Paris; Les Flambeaux Par Thomas Germain, 1732⁄33 Et 1734⁄35; Les Bouquets Par François-Thomas Germain, 1756-1757; Gravés Sous Les Bases: Fait Par F.t. Germain Sculpt Orf.re Du Roy Aux Galleries Du Louvre a Paris 1757 No 51 |
| 26 | Antoine Watteau | L’Île enchantée |
Issue ledger every nightly issue, oldest first
| Issued | Lots scored | Expected | Low estimate (USD) |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-09-06 | 58 | 93% | $14M |
| 2026-09-07 | 58 | 92% | $14M |
| 2026-09-08 | 58 | 91% | $14M |
| 2026-09-09 | 58 | 92% | $14M |
| 2026-09-10 | 58 | 92% | $14M |
| 2026-09-11 | 58 | 92% | $14M |
| 2026-09-12 | 58 | 92% | $14M |
| 2026-09-13 | 58 | 92% | $14M |
| 2026-09-14 | 58 | 92% | $14M |
| 2026-09-15 | 58 | 92% | $14M |
| 2026-09-16 | 58 | 92% | $14M |
The card is rebuilt every night while the sale is ahead, because the catalog fills for weeks; the forecast of record is the last issue on or before the sale date.
Method and citation
- What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
- The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
- Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
- Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
- Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Pre-sale forecast: Christie's, Graziella Patiño de Ortiz Linares Collection - Evening sale, 22 September 2026", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/66371. Issued 2026-09-16.
Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.