Retrospective · Bonhams scored
20th & 21st Century Art Evening Sale
Bonhams, New York · 19 November 2025 · sale page ↗. Retrospective — scored after the sale on the results as recorded; lots withdrawn before the sale are not in the record; the model that scored it was trained on data through 2025-09-15, before this sale.
Result scored 2026-09-16 · final
Forecast 75% (range 55–95%). Result 89%: 24 of 27 scored lots sold, 3 unsold or withdrawn. Inside the range, 14 pts above the forecast.
Ten lowest-scored lots: 2 of 10 unsold vs 1 of 17 others (the model expected about 3 of the ten unsold).
Counts over the lots the card scored; the per-lot scores behind them are in the API payload. How a card is scored →
75% range 55–95%expected sell-through by lotof the 27 lots with a printed estimate
74%by low-estimate valueof $11M low estimate
20 15–26expected soldof 27 scored lots
0unscoredno printed estimate
2025-09-15model data through4,926,256 panel lots
Guarantees and irrevocable bids are not recorded; a guaranteed lot sells by construction. The card forecasts whether lots sell, not what they make. The range assumes lots move together as they did in the last season's evening sales.
Lowest modeled probabilities the ten lowest of 27 scored lots
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate | Probability | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9A | László Moholy-nagy | Ch9 | $600,000–$800,000 | 63% | unsold or withdrawn |
| 8A | Yves Tanguy | Je tourne la tête vers moi (I Turn My Head Toward Myself) | $700,000–$1,000,000 | 66% | sold |
| 16A | Richard Prince | Mustang Painting #3 | $500,000–$700,000 | 67% | sold |
| 29A | Roberto Fabelo | Sueño de navegante | $150,000–$200,000 | 67% | unsold or withdrawn |
| 19A | Felix Gonzalez-torres | "Untitled" (Last Light) | $700,000–$1,000,000 | 68% | sold |
| 13A | Jeff Koons | Balloon Venus Dolni Vestonice (Magenta) | $1,500,000–$2,500,000 | 71% | sold |
| 17A | Francis Alys | Untitled (Sign Painting Project) | $180,000–$250,000 | 71% | sold |
| 20A | Cildo Meireles | Inmensa | $120,000–$180,000 | 74% | sold |
| 25A | Alice Neel | Fanya | $400,000–$600,000 | 75% | sold |
| 27A | Susan Rothenberg | Mares and Foals | $200,000–$300,000 | 75% | sold |
In the last season's retrospectives the model's ten lowest-scored lots went unsold about as often as the rest; this is the model's ordering, not a judgment of the works.
By estimate band low estimate in USD
| Band | Lots | Expected | Low estimate |
|---|---|---|---|
| $15k–50k | 1 | 76% | $20K |
| $50k+ | 26 | 75% | $11M |
Context evening sales at Bonhams, trailing year
Over the year before the sale (2024-11-19 to 2025-11-18), Bonhams sold 81% of the 74 lots with a recorded outcome in its 4 evening sales in the reporting panel; this sale is not in that record. That is the house's record, not a second forecast: the card above is computed lot by lot from this catalog.
Every scored lot 27 lots in catalog order, each with the lot-specific factor that moved it most
Shared by every lot on this card, so not repeated in the table: house rate 73%, n=876,470 · evening sales clear 88%, n=26,459 · November sales clear 71%, n=519,833 · art lots clear 72%, n=1,435,307.
| Lot | Artist | Work | Estimate USD | Probability | Why | Result |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1A | Jean Dubuffet | Promeneuse et promeneur | $70,000–$100,000 | 82% | artist clears 87% at panel houses, n=824 | sold |
| 2A | Jim Nutt | New things are a foot. | $200,000–$300,000 | 76% | sits at the house rate of 73%, n=876,470 | sold |
| 3A | Gertrude Abercrombie | Small Phonograph | $70,000–$100,000 | 90% | artist clears 90% at panel houses, n=83 | sold |
| 4A | Miyoko Ito | The Sea | $100,000–$150,000 | 76% | sits at the house rate of 73%, n=876,470 | sold |
| 5A | Suzanne Jackson | Muntu in My Garden | $200,000–$300,000 | 76% | sits at the house rate of 73%, n=876,470 | unsold or withdrawn |
| 6A | Martin Wong | Houston Street & Avenue B | $300,000–$500,000 | 77% | sits at the house rate of 73%, n=876,470 | sold |
| 7A | Henri Matisse | La femme aux cheveux noirs | $300,000–$500,000 | 76% | estimate 73× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 8A | Yves Tanguy | Je tourne la tête vers moi (I Turn My Head Toward Myself) | $700,000–$1,000,000 | 66% | estimate 69× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 9A | László Moholy-nagy | Ch9 | $600,000–$800,000 | 63% | estimate 50× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | unsold or withdrawn |
| 10A | Wassily Kandinsky | Lila | $300,000–$500,000 | 75% | estimate 67× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 11A | David Hockney | Courtyard, Palace of Carlos V. Alhambra, Granada (Second Version) | $1,200,000–$1,800,000 | 83% | artist clears 91% at panel houses, n=2,584 | sold |
| 12A | Wayne Thiebaud | River Sides | $1,000,000–$1,500,000 | 77% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=532 | sold |
| 13A | Jeff Koons | Balloon Venus Dolni Vestonice (Magenta) | $1,500,000–$2,500,000 | 71% | estimate 364× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 14A | Andy Warhol | Statue of Liberty | $800,000–$1,200,000 | 76% | artist clears 85% at panel houses, n=5,598 | sold |
| 15A | Yayoi Kusama | Fish | $320,000–$520,000 | 83% | artist clears 90% at panel houses, n=1,350 | sold |
| 16A | Richard Prince | Mustang Painting #3 | $500,000–$700,000 | 67% | estimate 195× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 17A | Francis Alys | Untitled (Sign Painting Project) | $180,000–$250,000 | 71% | estimate 21× the artist's median hammer | sold |
| 19A | Felix Gonzalez-torres | "Untitled" (Last Light) | $700,000–$1,000,000 | 68% | estimate 1,276× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 20A | Cildo Meireles | Inmensa | $120,000–$180,000 | 74% | artist clears 69% at panel houses, n=55 | sold |
| 22A | Norman Zammitt | Untitled | $20,000–$30,000 | 76% | sits at the house rate of 73%, n=876,470 | sold |
| 23A | Auguste Rodin | Le Baiser, 2ème réduction | $500,000–$700,000 | 76% | estimate 22× the artist's median hammer | sold |
| 24A | Louis Fratino | White Tulips | $80,000–$120,000 | 86% | artist clears 86% at panel houses, n=91 | sold |
| 25A | Alice Neel | Fanya | $400,000–$600,000 | 75% | estimate 143× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 26A | Ernie Barnes | In the Beginning | $300,000–$500,000 | 77% | artist clears 82% at panel houses, n=101 | sold |
| 27A | Susan Rothenberg | Mares and Foals | $200,000–$300,000 | 75% | estimate 83× the artist's median hammer (the model caps this term at 32×) | sold |
| 28A | Walton Ford | Chingado | $400,000–$600,000 | 78% | artist clears 74% at panel houses, n=52 | sold |
| 29A | Roberto Fabelo | Sueño de navegante | $150,000–$200,000 | 67% | artist clears 60% at panel houses, n=62 | unsold or withdrawn |
Probabilities are the model's, floored at 1% and capped at 99%; the "why" column names the lot-specific factor with the largest pull — the artist, the estimate band or the estimate's position against the artist's median hammer — in the model's own vocabulary, and a lot none of them moves sits at the house rate. Within a sale the model's ordering of lots is weak (see the methodology); the sale-level figures above are where it has been validated.
Method and citation
- What is forecast. Each lot with a printed estimate is scored by TheBasis.Art's sell-probability model — a weighted logistic regression on the measured sell-through of the estimate band, the house, the artist, the sale type, the month and the category, plus the estimate's spread and its position against the artist's median hammer — trained only on houses and years whose archives record bought-in lots. Sell probability →
- The range. Expected sold is the sum of the probabilities; the 80% range is a normal approximation on that count with the binomial spread widened 1.9× for lots moving together, measured over last season's evening sales. Forecast method →
- Scoring. After the sale, over the lots the card scored: sold=false is "unsold or withdrawn" because the record cannot tell the two apart; the card is scored once half the lots have a result and is final once 95% have or 30 days have passed.
- Model. Trained on 4,926,256 panel lots through 2025-09-15, validated on 920,195 held-out lots (AUC 0.713, Brier 0.193).
- Cite as: TheBasis.Art, "Retrospective: Bonhams, 20th & 21st Century Art Evening Sale, 19 November 2025", https://thebasis.art/research/forecasts/916. Issued 2026-09-16, scored 2026-09-16.
Press and data enquiries: [email protected]. The payload behind this card is served by the data API.